475
FXUS63 KMKX 290335
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
935 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning for Saturday and Saturday night. A
  significant winter storm will impact southern Wisconsin
  Saturday into early Sunday. Widespread snowfall totals of 8 to
  12 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Travel will
  be difficult, especially Saturday afternoon and evening when
  snowfall rates will be highest.

- Below normal temperatures will likely persist through next
  week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 935 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Snow is now moving into ern IA but do expect it to slow down
and/or evaporate as the 700 mb baroclinic zone weakens as it
approaches srn WI. Thus have delayed the onset a snow by a
couple hours or so across srn WI for Sat AM. The snow will
overspread ern WI by 14-16Z with the heaviest snowfall rates for
srn WI as a whole from late morning into the early evening.
This corresponds to the nose of a sly 40-50 kt LLJ that will
shift ewd across nrn IL and far srn WI during the afternoon.
850-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis supported
aloft by increasing PVA will be the main mechanisms for deep
lift. The initial shortwave bringing the PVA will lift newd
from IL through ern WI during the evening and will be followed
by a larger shortwave trough across nrn IL during the late
evening and overnight. The sfc low is still expected to track
from nrn MO Sat afternoon to near Chicago by 06Z Sun with a few
millibars of deepening expected. These features will support a
2nd round of 850-700 mb frontogenesis that will shift from nern
IL nwd to east central WI during the evening then quickly back
swd as the low moves away across lower MI. In addition, the sely
fetch will support at least 12 hours of lake enhanced snow for
Sheboygan, ern Fond du Lac, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties
with less effects from LES to the south. Thus expect heavier
QPF and snow totals over ern WI vs. south central WI. 8-12
inches of snow accum is forecasted for south central WI with the
lowest totals nw of Madison, while 10-15 inches is forecast for
ern WI but locally more where the lake enhanced snow is the
heaviest. Winter Storm Warning continues for Sat-Sat nt.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 400 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

Stubborn clouds this afternoon should decrease in coverage late
afternoon into the evening. This will likely allow temperatures
to tank for a few hours as winds will be light, before clouds
begin to increase by late evening ahead of an approaching
winter storm. Will probably see a few spots drop into at least
the upper teens.

A significant winter storm is then expected to impact all of
southern Wisconsin Saturday into early Sunday. There are a
couple changes to note from the previous forecast. The first is
that overall forecast snow totals have come up a bit. ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble mean liquid equivalent precip totals
have held pretty steady over the last several runs, while the
GFS and associated ensemble mean have gradually increased over
the last 24 hours. The short term meso models are not
surprisingly on the high end with totals along with the NAM.
The lowest totals are still with the Canadian solutions. Knowing
that models can get a little excited with QPF 1 to 3 days out,
kept totals on the moderate side, at or below many model
solutions. Still ended up with pretty healthy totals though.
Feel these totals are reasonable given good support for lift
with the low track, low level and upper level jet placement,
decent frontogenesis and warm air advection, and no issues with
dry air entrainment during the bulk of the system. Also kept
snow to liquid ratios on the conservative side, averaging around
15 to 1 for the bulk of the event. A few models have as high as
20 to 1 during portions of the storm. Bumped the SLRs down a
bit in the east due to some milder temps along the lakeshore,
but that milder air will be very shallow.

Another change from the previous forecast is increased
confidence for higher lake enhanced totals along and east of
the Kettle Moraine. Between the moisture increase from the lake,
increased lift due to solid sfc to 850 mb temp diffs, and some
low level convergence, looks like there could be a notable
swath of higher amounts in the east. There is a pretty
consistent signal for this among the latest meso models. In the
end, the snow totals were bumped up to 8 to 12 inches across the
forecast area per the above mentioned reasons, with totals of
10 to 14 inches possible in eastern areas. These higher totals
will likely be localized, due to the nature of frontogenetic
banding and lake enhancement.

The highest snowfall rates will be during the afternoon and
evening hours tomorrow, and could be as high as 1 to 2 inches an
hours at times, especially in the east. Average short term model
visibilites are between 1/4 and 1 mile during this time frame,
with travel likely difficult due to the reduced visibilities and
snow covered roads.

Snow will wind down by daybreak Sunday. Though the snow will have
ended, winds will pick up by early Sunday, with some blowing
and drifting of the freshly fallen snow possible. Northwest
winds are expected to gust 25 to 35 mph through the morning,
with winds gradually easing during the afternoon.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 400 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

Following the active weekend and snow, expect Arctic air to settle
across the area overnight Sunday through Monday. High pressure and
light winds paired with the anticipated fresh snow will contribute
to an early season cold snap. Nightly low temps for Sunday night and
Monday nights are looking to dip into the single digits and
potential even dip below zero for inland locations of southern WI
with single digit below zero wind chills. Meanwhile high temps on
Monday will only top off in the teens to lower 20s, which is around
15-20F below normal for this time of year. Additionally with a
shortwave trough and associated surface progged to trek from the
Plains and along/just south of the Ohio River Valley, cannot rule
out a glancing chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Overall any snow accumulations looking minimal as southern WI sits
on the northern fringes of the QPF and best forcing lingering to our
south.

Tuesday through midweek begin to see temps rebound briefly back
toward, but still below normal. Long range models are hinting at a
bit more of an active cold pattern with a few rounds of additional
snow. Next chance will be Wednesday with a passing cold front
passage. High pressure and Arctic air will filter in behind the
front towards the end of the week with single digit temps overnight
and sub-zero wind chills. Another bout of snow will be possible with
a few passing systems across the Upper Midwest later Friday through
the weekend. Could see an addition few inches with each system given
the cold pattern. So will need to keep an eye on the later week
impacts.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 935 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions for much of tnt over srn WI but with MVFR Cigs
and Vsbys developing over south central WI from 9-13Z as light
snow develops. This area of light snow and Cig and Vsbys
restrictions will overspread all of srn WI by 15-16Z. Cigs will
then fall well below 1 kft for the remainder of the day and
night with vsbys ranging from 1/2-1 mile as the snow becomes
heavier. Periods of 1/4SM +SN will be possible over ern WI.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 400 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

High pressure working across the region will bring the lighter,
west- northwesterly winds this evening, but will begin to see
winds back to the south and easterly overnight into Saturday as
low pressure tracks across KS Saturday morning to the south tip
of Lake Michigan Saturday night. Will be a brief six hour window
of stronger south-southeasterly winds and expecting to reach
gale force gusts as the low pressure approaches later Saturday
into Saturday evening and a gale warning is issued for the
southern third of the lake, while small craft conditions for
southern WI near shores. Winds will weaken below gale as the low
pressure passes the southern tip of Lake Michigan overnight
Saturday, but small craft conditions for the nearshores continue
as we see this low deepen as it lifts into Lake Huron by mid-
Sunday. Stronger northwesterly winds will develop and expect to
reach gale force once again across the open waters with the
colder air mass moving into the region. Thus a Gale Watch is in
effect for Sunday. High pressure will then build in later Sunday
into the start of next week with light winds.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-
     WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...3 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Storm Warning...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
     WIZ065-WIZ066...6 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3
     PM Saturday to 9 PM Saturday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday to 7 PM
     Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
     Saturday to 11 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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