918
FXUS63 KMKX 251512
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1012 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms at times today, with a the potential
  for more widespread, stronger thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and into tonight. The main threats will be
  localized flooding and gusty winds.

- On and off thunderstorms will continue through Thursday, with
  a high chance (70 to 80 percent) of exceeding an inch of
  rainfall from central to south-central WI.

- Rivers are currently rising, with additional rounds of rain
  and storms bringing potential for some areas reaching flood
  stage over the next few days.

- A return to higher heat and humidity expected going into the
  weekend.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1012 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A broken line of rain showers is moving northeast across
southern Wisconsin this morning. These more nebulous showers
have a small chance (around 10-15%) to produce a few rumbles of
thunder as WAA increases from the southwest to the northeast.
With the frontal boundary expected to stall across southern
Wisconsin later today there will be a spilt in temperatures,
dewpoints and thus areas best suited for storms. Did increase
POPs through the morning.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 432 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Today through Thursday:

The stationary front over our region will get lifted north along
the Mississippi River Valley as warm advection increases over
Iowa. This will angle the front from the northwest to the
southeast over our CWA today. While most of the advection and
shower and storm activity will be centered west of the
Mississippi this morning, nebulous lift over our region may
allow for some scattered thunderstorms to continue through the
morning, especially as the front lifts and changes its
orientation.

With the front splitting the area, a temp/dewpoint gradient
will exist over our CWA, with southwestern WI having highs in
the low to mid 80s amid 70 degree dewpoints, while east central
WI will see highs near 70 and dewpoints in the 50s.

Tonight, most CAMs depict a line of thunderstorms forming near
La Crosse and moving east southeast into our CWA. By the time
these storms arrive in Sauk/Columbia/Marquette Counties, CAPE
may become a bit elevated and skinny, promoting a weakening
trend as these storms track toward south central WI. Given
variance among the CAMs, there is a lot of uncertainty if storms
will make it to the Lake Michigan shoreline or even form (the
06Z NAM Nest keeps us dry). If this line of storms forms
tonight, gusty winds will be the primary concern as well as
heavy downpours.

Thursday, the stationary boundary will lift a bit further north
ahead of approaching low pressure. Scattered thunderstorm activity
will continue as the boundary lifts north Thursday morning,
courtesy of warm advection. Heat will return for the afternoon
with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 over most of southern WI
amid dew points in the 70s. Late Thursday afternoon and into
Thursday night, the low pressure center will approach from
southern MN, dragging a cold front toward southern WI. Storms
are expected to form along the front. Much like storms this past
Monday, a few bowing segments may form, supporting a wind
threat, but the storms will generally gust out/dissipate with
time as they approach parts of the Lake Michigan shoreline late
in the evening.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 432 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Friday through Tuesday:

A few showers may linger into Friday morning, but the main area of
forcing will exit southern WI. If there are any remnant outflow
boundaries, additional showers and storms could develop along it
during the day Friday. Right now, it is looking like that boundary
would be over IL and northern IL.

The warm ridge from the Plains is expected to nose into southern
WI over the weekend. This means highs around 90 and dewpoints in
the lower 70s, so heat indices approaching 100. The chances for
showers and storms look very low for Saturday and conditional on
Sunday. They would be conditional on developing upstream and
tracking into southern WI Sunday evening.

We should cool off a little bit Monday after weak low pressure
crosses the Upper Great Lakes. We should get into a drier and
cooler pattern Tuesday through Friday as a nigh amplitude ridge
builds into the Northern Plains. However, weak ripples in the
upper flow may initiate showers and storms at times.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1012 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to continue through the
morning hours. The lower ceilings are expected to move northward
through the afternoon as the stationary frontal boundary moves
slightly north into central Wisconsin. Terminals near central
Wisconsin (FLD, SBM, DLL) may see MVFR to LIFR ceilings through
the period. Along the WI/IL border VFR conditions should return
late this afternoon into the evening as the frontal boundary
moves northward. MVFR to VFR conditions should build through all
of southern Wisconsin Thursday.

Light winds are expected through the period across southern
Wisconsin. Winds will predominately be out of the northeast to
east through this evening for all but southwestern Wisconsin. In
the southwest, light winds will turn to southeasterly this
morning and remain out of the southeast through this evening.
Heading into tonight winds across the area will become southerly
overnight then continue to back southwesterly by Thursday late
morning/afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Thursday, with the
best chances over most of southern Wisconsin tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 427 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A weak, nearly stationary frontal boundary will
linger across the southern third to southern half of the lake
through Thursday, bringing multiple rounds of thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the northern half.
Expect modest northeasterly winds north of the frontal boundary,
with modest southeasterly winds south of the boundary. Thursday
night, expecting the front to lift northward ahead of approaching
low pressure of 29.8 inches, bringing south southwest winds to the
open waters. As the low pressure exits to the east, expect a wind
shift to westerly on Friday into Friday night.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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