680
FXUS63 KMKX 251038
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
438 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM CST Tuesday
  morning for Lafayette, Green, Iowa, and Dane Counties. The
  dense fog may expand northeast into the rest of southern
  Wisconsin overnight into Tuesday. There is some potential fog
  may linger into the early afternoon

- Low clouds and drizzle/light rain showers will remain possible
  this morning, with patchy drizzle more likely through the
  late morning and into the afternoon.

- Cold front moves through tonight bringing rain changing to
  snow Wednesday morning. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be
  likely over central to east central WI Wednesday, with a
  dusting elsewhere.

- Gusty northwest winds expected Wednesday. A Wind Advisory is
  in effect for gust to 45 mph.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 400 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today through Wednesday Night:

A shortwave trough lifting northeast over southern Lake Michigan
will bring an area of light rain to southeast Wisconsin this
morning. Otherwise dense fog over southwest Wisconsin will
likely remain in place and/or expand in coverage into the post
dawn hours amid the weak sfc flow and stable to neutral low
level conditions. With the low stratus and some lingering lift,
areas of patchy drizzle will linger into the afternoon.

Low pressure is then expected to approach from the west this
evening, dragging a cold front from west to east over the state.
An initial band of rain is anticipated along the front, with a
bit of a lull before TROWAL precipitation moves overhead. This
precipitation will start as rain near daybreak on Wednesday and
quickly change to snow as cold air grows deeper as it gets
advected into the region behind the surface low. Rates will be
fairly light, limiting travel impacts Wednesday with only a
half inch to an inch of accumulation expected between 6am and
Noon and Noon and 6pm. Snow is also anticipated to be dry and
powdery, especially Wednesday afternoon when the cold dry air
pushes the snow ratio up to 15:1.

The low will also drag a strong pressure gradient over the state
with a 60kt 850mb jet expected aloft. The CAA will allow for
mixing of this momentum to the surface, and wind gusts are
expected to be strong on Wednesday. Winds should increase from
west to east Wednesday morning starting around 6am with
everywhere seeing gusts up to 45mph by noon. These gusts are
then expected to continue until 6pm before easing Wednesday
evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 6am to 6pm.

Winds will remain elevated Wednesday night. With air
temperatures in the 20s, wind chills will likely drop into the
single digits.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thursday through Monday:

Gusty west-northwest winds will continue on Thursday, but peak
gusts will be 25 to 33 mph which is well below Wind Advisory
criteria. The strong surface low will be exiting the Great Lakes
Region while strong high pressure builds into the Northern and
Central Plains. With cold air advection persisting through the
day, the high temperatures Thursday (Thanksgiving) will only be
around 30 and then lows Thursday night will drop into the upper
teens. The wind chill values will remain in the teens during this
period. Drier air will be working into southern Wisconsin, so
expect stratocumulus clouds during the day and some clearing
overnight. The moisture layer looks too dry for snow, but given
that the cloud layer will be within the dendritic growth zone,
flurries cannot be ruled out.

A period of sunshine is probable for Friday. Expect lighter
northwest winds and highs around 29. With high pressure overhead
Friday evening, temperatures will drop quickly, and overnight lows
will be in the teens once again. Look for clouds to spread in
overnight as the next system approaches.

Two mid level shortwave troughs approaching from southwest Canada
and the Pacific Northwest are expected to be mostly phased
(together) as they cross the Northern and Central Plains on
Saturday. The phasing was previously in question, but there is
general consensus of model ensembles phasing up through Saturday
afternoon and probably through Sunday. This upper forcing will
produce a broad area of lift ahead of it. An inverted surface low
pressure trough extending up from Oklahoma and Missouri will
feature widespread precipitation all the way into Northern
Wisconsin. With surface to 850mb temps well below freezing, snow
will be the precip type across southern Wisconsin. Winds will be
light during this time. Precip amounts will be on the lighter side
due to this broad lift Saturday through Saturday night, with a
total around 0.20 inch. This should equate to around 2 to 3 inches
over a 12 to 24 hour period if the forecast holds. While this snow
may be able to shovel, the snowfall rates are expected to be low
enough to avoid major travel disruptions.

Snow may linger into Sunday, but the forecast is trending drier
since there is better agreement about the system phasing and
exiting Wisconsin together. The next upper trough will approach
from the Plains Sunday night or Monday. The GFS produces a swath
of snow across southern Wisconsin, while the ECMWF is weaker and
keeps the precip with this system to the south of Wisconsin.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Outside of morning rain in southeast Wisconsin, low ceilings,
fog and drizzle will continue through the day amid light
southerly winds. A cold front is expected to move through
tonight, bringing more chances for rain and an eventual change
over to light accumulating snow Wednesday morning. Winds will
also come around to southwesterly and increase behind the front.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Relatively light south to southeast winds will persist through
today as low pressure approaches from the Minnesota/Iowa
border. A cold front is expected to pass over the lake tonight,
turning winds southwest and breezy, with winds steadily
increasing toward daybreak on Wednesday.

A period of very strong west to northwest winds are then expected
through Wednesday as strong mixing may bring storm force wind
gusts to the southern two-thirds of the lake, with gales
anticipated over the northern third. A Storm Watch is in effect
through Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Winds will ease
slightly Thursday, but gales are then expected to continue into
early Friday as the low pressure moves into eastern Canada and
deepens.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 10 AM
     Tuesday.

     Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM
     Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Thursday to midnight Friday.

     Storm Watch...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...6 AM Wednesday to 3 AM Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM Wednesday to
     3 AM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM Wednesday to
     6 PM Thursday.

&&

$$

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