Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
638 FXUS63 KMKX 140822 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 322 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and warming temps today and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Unsettle pattern for Wednesday afternoon/evening with 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Chances then linger into Thursday. - Looking drier and cooler for Friday if the cold front pushes and stalls further south in IL, but unsettle weather with 20-40% shower/storm chances return for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Today through Tuesday night: Some lingering smoky conditions along the lakeshore early this morning, but will continue to improve through daybreak as upper- level zonal flow sets up across the region. Otherwise, looking at another quiet and dry day across southern WI. The surface high pressure to the south continues to gradually migrate eastward allowing for southwesterly winds to set up across the area. This will begin to usher in warmer temps and increasing dewpoints. Looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s today and overnight night lows dipping into the 60s. While expecting a mainly dry forecast, cannot rule out an isolate shower or two to develop later today across central WI. Main activity will be focused along the 850mb WAA as seen on the latest radar imagery across northwest WI early this morning. However, lingering subsidence from the departing high along with most of the models progging the forcing across northern WI, should keep much of the activity out of our CWA. Similar set up for Tuesday with slightly warmer temps and dewpoints creeping into the upper 60s/low 70s. So will feel muggier and warmer for Tuesday as southerly flow persists across the region. Overnight Tuesday cannot rule out seeing some showers sneak in from the northwest across the Wisconsin River Valley as a shortwave trough begins to take shape upstream across the northern Plains, however the better setup for unsettled weather will be for Wednesday. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Wednesday through Sunday: There is a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday. Storms may be strong with heavy rainfall. A mid level shortwave moves through along with surface low pressure, which moves along a frontal boundary draped somewhere across Wisconsin. Moisture will increase on the nose of a 30 knot jet. PWs surge to 2 inches with Cape building over 2000 J and shear values of 20 to 30 knots. A frontal boundary will remain across far southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois in the wake of the surface low. Rain and storm chances may continue on Thursday depending where the frontal boundary stalls. Instability is less but forcing is provided by a weak shortwave and some lift will also be provided by the right entrance region of an upper jet. In the wake of the shortwave, northwest mid level flow will usher in slightly cooler air for Friday, making it the coolest day of the week. High pressure briefly moves overhead bringing dry weather. There are chances for rain and storms at times Saturday through Monday. Timing is uncertain this far out but waves of low pressure and mid level shortwaves move through during the period. Instability builds again on Saturday and lingers into early next week. The low level jet increases and brings warmer and more humid conditions to the area. Marquardt && .AVIATION... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Some lingering smoke persists along the lakeshore early this morning, but will mix out through daybreak. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period as high pressure to the south migrates eastward through the day. Looking at light winds early this morning to pick up to around 10 knots out of the south- southwest today. Light flow and slightly bigger temps gradient may result in a lake breeze pushing inland for the eastern terminals this afternoon turning winds more south- southeasterly briefly. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 South to southwesterly winds gradually pick up across Lake Michigan today as high pressure pushes further east. Southerly winds continue to increase Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a developing low pressure. Low pressure looks to track across WI and central portions of Lake Michigan through Wednesday night. Will see shower and thunderstorms accompany this low as it pushes through the region. Then expecting northerly winds behind the departing low pressure system and stalling front south of the Lake for Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes region. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee