653
FXUS63 KMKX 160832
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More showers and a few storms may develop and affect parts of
  southwest WI this morning.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times this afternoon
  through the rest of the week, with the better chances for
  stronger storms Tuesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Today and Tonight:

An MCV feature continues to stick around over the southwest
parts of WI this morning and appears likely to hang around at
least for the next several hours. This will keep shower chances
through the early morning hours as it slowly migrates north.
There is some potential for storm development over the next few
hours with this as instability increases as the sun comes out as
we start to diurnally heat. We will continue to monitor over
the next few hours for additional development.

The morning and early afternoon hours will for the most part
keep much of the CWA dry but the western fringes will keep some
shower/storm risk with a shortwave pushing across the area but
with decreasing low to mid level moisture further east dry air
will likely inhibit much in the way of showers or storms further
east, particularly into the early afternoon.

Into the late afternoon and evening hours we will see another
shortwave slide through but this one looks to be associated with
better low to mid level moisture and will benefit from
additional forcing from the frontal feature sliding across the
region associated with the low pushing east across the northern
Great Lakes region. There is at least a decent chance for
stronger storms with this despite the potentially later timing
given some instability and modest deep layer shear. Some CAMs
have shown support for the development of an MCS feature in
southern MN and northern IA that would potentially push into
southern WI overnight but there remains a lot of uncertainty
with that risk as a few CAMs show nothing at all but this will
be worth monitoring to our west later today. However as with
the previous days the drier air further east as well as the
instability dropping further into the evening eastern parts of
the CWA may remain dry overnight and this could result in a
remnant MCV feature if an MCS were to occur withing the region.
This will may especially be the case as the front somewhat
stalls overnight over the CWA between the departing low to the
north and the developing low in the Central Plains.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Overall, model ensembles are in pretty good agreement with the
expected upper level pattern evolution into next weekend. As is
typically the case with these summertime patterns, the devil is in
the mesoscale details from day to day.

The door remains open to remnant MCS activity Tuesday as a low
level boundary will either be overhead or very nearby. Certainly
not enough confidence in a washout scenario, but there are chances
for periodic showers and storms in a warm and muggy airmass.
Unlike the past couple of days, low level westerly winds will, for
at least a time, allow areas adjacent to Lake Michigan to warm
into the 80s.

The best opportunity for showers/storms is still centered on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Timing differences continue to exist
with the Canadian/European ensembles about 6-12 hours faster than
the GEFS. The main consequence of this discrepancy is whether we
can muster enough instability with increasing shear to result
in a risk for severe storms. In the end, this is a mesoscale
problem, with a whole host of possible caveats. Keep an eye out
for at least a few storms to produce a wind/hail risk.

High pressure attempts to build into the region Thursday, though
northwest flow on the back edge of the departing upper wave keeps
the door open to diurnally driven showers and a few storms. The
influence of this high will be very short lived as a warm front
will quickly approach from the southwest heading into Friday as
the upper level pattern amplifies. Expect additional, periodic
rain chances associated with the warm front Friday/Friday night.

The summer solstice arrives at 941 PM CDT Friday evening, and
right on queue, summertime temperatures arrive on Saturday. A
deepening trough over the western CONUS will promote increased
ridging aloft. The ensembles only offer minor differences with
this pattern, mainly focused on the amplitude of the ridging over
the central and eastern CONUS. This does bear watching as it
governs just how far north the resultant storm track will set up.

As it stands right now, the storm track looks to set up to our
north (per Canadian/European ensemble mean), with temperatures
surging to well above average levels. The NBM probabilistic
guidance indicates a 50% chance of highs at or above 90 degrees
over much of the area. With dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, this
will feel very much like the heart of summer with heat index
values well into the 90s, especially inland areas. Bottom line,
watch out for increasing heat impacts next weekend.

Gagan

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered rain showers linger west of Madison this morning,
with dry weather elsewhere. Additional shower and weak
thunderstorm development remains possible primarily west of
Madison this morning. Higher uncertainty this afternoon and
onwards, but best shower/storm chances will largely be confined
to the western half of the state (though a decaying line of
thunderstorms pushing further east later tonight remains a
possibility). Modest south winds today. CIGS will remain around
5000 ft with the showers with higher CIGS elsewhere. VFR
conditions expected with only a very slight chance for VSBY
reductions with any rain showers/storms further west.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

High pressure, now over the Atlantic will with low pressure
over the northern plains has allowed for winds to turn
southerly today. Winds will turn increasingly breezy
particularly on the north side of the lake this evening into
Tuesday as the low pressure crosses the northern Great Lakes
region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Another low pressure
approaches from the central Great Plains on Wednesday, with
continued thunderstorm chances. The exact trajectory of this low
will determine Wednesday`s wind field, but for now the best
guess is southerly winds for the south half and easterly winds
for the north half of the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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