555
FNUS73 KMKX 031352
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Lower Mud Lake Rx...Dane County Parks
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
752 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 03.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Mixing heights increase from around 1400 ft at ignition to around
2000 ft by 11 AM CST this morning. By Noon CST, the shallow
capping inversion breaks, allowing mixing heights to jump up to
6,000 ft or greater from then through the afternoon. Though the
westerly winds will continue to accelerate through the morning
hours, the strongest gusts are anticipated after this inversion
breaks, after Noon CST. Model forecast soundings do hint that
there will be potential (given the deep afternoon mixing) for the
wind gusts to become stronger than forecast (30 MPH) for brief
periods of time this afternoon given the deep mixing heights, in
fact I cannot completely rule out 40 MPH gusts. That said, this
forecast will continue to reflect 30 MPH gusts until confidence in
such a scenario increases.

The temperatures as seen in the forecast below are right on track,
roughly 48 at ignition, rising towards 59. Same with the
humidities, aiming for a daily minimum of 27%, with potential for
it to bottom out at 20% flat in some areas due to the strong
mixing. We`ll get in touch if anything changes.

The Special Weather Statement in effect for fire weather
conditions was issued on account of the breezy west winds and low
RH, though both the air temperature and fuel buildup values are
well beneath Red Flag criteria.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6000 ft
                    AGL, rapidly deepening after noon CST.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 29 mph shifting to the west 16
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /24300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /88600 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (127000 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   3   2   2   3   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  51  54  56  57  58  58  55  51
RH..............63  52  41  34  30  28  27  31  35
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  11  12  12  12  10  8
20 FT wind gust.19  19  21  21  28  30  30  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.7 2.4 3.9 5.2 6.0 4.9 1.4 0.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  22  24  26  29  31  30  20  16
SDspl kt-ft/100024  32  50  89  130 161 127 24  9

$$
Forecaster...BS
Requested by...Christopher Cole
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2524939.0/MKX
.DELDT 11/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cole.christopher@danecounty.gov