295
FNUS73 KMKX 111251
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Bear Den Woods...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
651 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 11.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A few snow flurries are currently crossing the region early this
morning, but should clear out over the next hour or two, leaving
dry weather for the rest of today. Southwest winds will soon
become gusty, on the bright side this will help compensate for the
shallow mixing heights and provide good to excellent smoke
dispersal from ignition time onwards. As seen in this spot
forecast, we`re calling for 25 to 30 MPH gusts and sustained winds
of 10 to 15 MPH, I cannot completely rule out some briefly faster
gusts to 35 MPH based on the much faster winds present just above
the surface.

As for the temperature and humidity, surface stations confirm the
values in this spot forecast are perfectly on track at this time,
though with some additional mixing due to the gusty winds, we
can`t completely rule out RH values as low as 45% (our best guess
remains a minimum of 52% early this afternoon).

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered snow flurries
                    early this morning, then dry weather.
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 41.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 14 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 10 to 15
                    mph with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 30 mph decreasing to 16 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /56000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /73100 knot-ft/.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  61  62  63  64  67  59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  38  39  40  40  39  38
RH..............56  54  54  55  55  59  64
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  13  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.22  25  25  25  20  19  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.2 0.8 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.30  29  29  26  23  17  16
SDspl kt-ft/100056  70  73  63  44  12  9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  44  42  52  62  55  45  34  27  20  12  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  37  37  37  37  37  38  37  37  37  36  35
RH..............70  72  79  82  85  89  85  89  85  85  85  85
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   7   8   8   9   10  11
20 FT wind gust.16  16  17  17  17  16  16  17  18  18  19  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  16  17  16  17  16  17  17  20  21  20
SDspl kt-ft/10007   7   6   7   6   7   6   7   7   8   9   8

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........Max 49.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 29 mph shifting to the west
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (69900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  6   4   10  4   3   6   6   5   5   5   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  33  36  39  42  44  46  48  48  48  46  43
RH..............85  92  85  76  67  62  56  51  49  49  53  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  12  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  11  9
20 FT wind gust.20  22  23  24  25  25  24  24  24  23  21  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  22  22  25  25  28  29  26  25  23  21  18
SDspl kt-ft/10008   17  25  44  49  60  70  64  61  55  36  20

$$
Forecaster...BS
Requested by...Adam Holcomb
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525578.0/MKX
.DELDT 11/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.holcomb@wisconsin.gov