Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
417
FNUS73 KMKX 031013 AAA
FWSMKX
Spot Forecast for Friends Pond Rx Burn...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
513 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on October 03.
Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this
forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm and dry today, but given the location`s
proximity to Lake Michigan will create a degree of uncertainty in
the forecast, especially for wind direction and RH values.
The current forecast calls for lower mixing heights holding below
2kft and min RHs ranging between 55-65 percent this afternoon.
Will also see cooler temps compare to further inland areas with
high in the upper 70s. Generally expect prevailing southwesterly
winds through the morning and into the start of the afternoon,
then forecasting a more southerly shift after 1 PM CDT.
However there are a few caveats that may impact/change the
current forecast. Wind direction this afternoon may be more
southeasterly if a lake breeze develops. Models do struggle to
pick up on lake breeze development, timing, and how far inland it
may push. In this case if one does develop it would likely be
between 12 PM -3 PM CDT timeframe and would have a potential to
stall somewhere along I-43 corridor. The lake breeze scenario
would also keep temps cooler and min RH values higher (>60
percent).
On the other hand if southwesterly winds end up prevailing longer
into the afternoon, then could see deeper mixing heights approach
or even exceed 2kft as well as warmer temps in the lower 80s and
lower RHs in the 50 percent range and potentially even in the
upper 40 percent range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 79.
RH..................84 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 5 mph at
ignition...otherwise South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /4100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
/19900 knot-ft/.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7 7 6 6 10 15 19 17 16 14 13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61 63 69 73 76 78 79 78 78 77 76
RH..............84 81 70 64 60 58 56 58 60 62 64
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.7 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 10 9 8 8 9 10 13 13 14 14
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 3 4 5 9 15 20 19 17 10
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13 12 15 17 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74 72 70 69 68 67 66 66 66 66 65 64
RH..............71 76 81 84 84 84 87 84 81 81 81 84
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.11 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12
SDspl kt-ft/10005 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (31100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27 28 26 23 14 19 16 13 12 10 9 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64 64 66 70 75 77 78 78 78 77 76 74
RH..............84 87 84 76 66 64 62 62 60 62 64 69
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13
20 FT wind gust.8 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 17 18 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 20 20
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 4 6 8 17 25 31 30 29 27 21
$$
Forecaster...Wagner
Requested by...Aaron Wright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522853.0/MKX
.DELDT 10/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Aaron.Wright@Wisconsin.gov