952
FXUS62 KMLB 280549
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Dry conditions will persist across east central Florida through
  Monday along with a period of seasonable temperatures.

- A high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue at all
  east central Florida beaches through at least Monday. Entering
  the surf is not advised!

- Moisture increases across the Florida peninsula from Tuesday
  onward, resulting in a return of rain and storm chances locally.
  A slight uptick in temperatures and a return of humidity is also
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tonight-Monday...A dry air mass remains in place across the
Florida peninsula tonight through Monday. PWATs generally range
between 0.8- 1.2", with some pockets of moisture building slightly
on Monday up to 1.6". Overall, this drier air will continue to
limit rain and storm chances across east central Florida, with no
mentionable chances through Monday. Light and variable winds
persist through tonight and early Monday, becoming slightly more
onshore during the afternoon hours as a weak, diffuse sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Mostly clear skies continue through
tonight and into Monday, with afternoon temperatures staying
seasonable in the mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures fall into the
60s.

Long period swells will support a continued high risk of rip
currents at all east central Florida beaches tonight and into
Monday. Entering the ocean is not advised!

Tuesday-Saturday...A mid-level trough drifts southward towards
the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week, eventually
becoming a broad closed low across the eastern Gulf. Mid-level
high pressure across the Atlantic drifts westward towards the
peninsula by Thursday, pushing the low farther into the Gulf
through late week. At the surface, the broad high pressure
situated across the peninsula lifts northward as an area of low
pressure out across the Atlantic far east of the Carolinas lifts
northeastward, slowly dragging a stalled frontal boundary
northward across Florida. By mid to late week, an additional broad
disturbance develops near Cuba, drifting northwestward into the
Gulf. Overall, this set-up will result in gradually increasing
moisture across east central Florida, further aided by persistent
onshore flow advecting moist air from the Atlantic. Isolated to
scattered rain and storm chances return to the Treasure Coast and
areas around Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday, spreading northward and
encompassing the entire forecast area from Wednesday onward. A
majority of the activity is anticipated to follow a diurnal
pattern, with daytime heating supporting the development of a
diffuse sea breeze each afternoon. Intrusion inland and additional
local boundary interactions will further support development,
with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight period.
While it remains too early to pinpoint exact storm threats,
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all look to be
possible at this time. It is important to note that while activity
is anticipated to diminish during the overnight hours, the
persistent onshore flow will support low chances (20-30%) of
isolated onshore- moving showers through the overnight and early
morning hours along the coast. Scattered shower and storm
development will remain possible across the local Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours.

The taste of fall across east central Florida this weekend will
unfortunately be brief, with temperatures forecast to trend a bit
warmer. The warmest temperatures are anticipated across the
interior (upper 80s to low 90s), with the onshore flow keeping
places along the coast a bit closer to normal (mid to upper 80s).
The increasing moisture also will push dewpoints higher, resulting
in a return of peak heat indices into the upper 90s and even near
100 by late week. Overnight temperatures will also trend near to
slightly above normal through the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light and variable winds tonight into Monday will continue to
allow seas to subside across the local Atlantic waters, falling
from 3 to 5 feet tonight to 2 to 3 feet on Monday. Wind speeds
stay below 15 knots, generally around 10 knots across the local
waters. By Tuesday, winds are anticipated to become easterly and
southeasterly, with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots persisting
through the week. Local enhancements closer to the coast will be
possible as a result of the east coast sea breeze. Seas of 2 to 3
feet slowly build once again due to the onshore flow, reaching 4
feet primarily across the offshore waters by mid week. Overall,
boating conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable.

Dry conditions will persist through Monday due to dry air
limiting shower and storm development. By Tuesday, moisture slowly
begins building once again across the Treasure Coast waters,
spreading northward by Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible each day, with continued development possible
into the overnight hours due to the persistent onshore flow.
Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible with
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds light/variable thru 14-15z, increasing 5-8 kt from the SW,
then veering onshore as the ECSB moves inland after 17-19z
(except at LEE). Speeds could reach 10-12 kt thru 01z. VFR conds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and
is actively cresting due to a previous period of northerly winds
and ongoing tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually
subside through Minor Flood Stage this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  70  88  72 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  88  71  89  72 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  87  72  87  74 /   0   0  20  30
VRB  87  71  88  72 /   0   0  30  30
LEE  88  70  89  72 /  10   0  20   0
SFB  88  70  89  72 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  88  71  89  72 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  87  70  88  71 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Schaper