836
FXUS62 KMLB 271136
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through
  late week. Heading to the beach and entering the ocean is not
  advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion and a HIGH risk of rip currents
  are forecast over the next several days.

- Scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast over the Treasure
  Coast today. Increasing moisture will bring higher coverage of
  showers Wednesday with isolated lightning strikes and locally
  heavy rain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Current-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure remains fixated across
the eastern CONUS as weak low pressure develops near the Bahamas.
This will maintain a tight pressure gradient as persistent, gusty
NERLY winds continue across ECFL. Highest winds become sustained 20-
25 mph with frequent gusts to 35-40 mph (highest near the coast)
this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all of east
central FL (except Lake County) into early evening. Winds will
decrease slightly into the evening, but will still be breezy/gusty
at times and future shifts can decide to carry (or not) the WI.Y
at the coast longer. Lower coverage of precip early this morning
as drier air builds in north of the Treasure Coast. Rather tight
gradient today for precip, with 10-20% chances near Melbourne
northward and increasing up to 70% southward into Martin County
where moisture is deepest. Moisture does surge northward again
late today/tonight and precip chances increase back north toward
the Cape. Will have to monitor for heavy rainfall potential late
today/tonight across the Treasure Coast. Isolated wind gusts may
still approach 35-45 mph in onshore-moving convection later today.

Afternoon max temps remain near seasonal, 80F to L80s. Min
overnight temps along/northwest of I-4 in the U60s and generally
around 70F to L70s elsewhere - perhaps M70s for many across
barrier islands.

Plenty of dangerous coastal/marine hazards continue as numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents and rough surf remain present
at all local beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for
large breaking waves 7-11 ft in the surf zone. Entering the water is
not advised! Pounding surf and persistent long period onshore swells
will continue Moderate to Major beach erosion at times of high tide.
This significant coastal event coincides with a period of
astronomical high tides, and Minor to Moderate flooding is also
forecast. During the morning high tide cycles saltwater flooding
will impact low-lying roads, lots, docks, and yards near the coast
and intracoastal waterways. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in
effect.

Wed-Mon...High pressure across the eastern U.S. does show a
weakening trend into the weekend as it is pushed seaward with
approach of a developing low pressure system. Gusty onshore winds
continue into mid-week, then a gradual relaxing of the pressure
gradient occurs, but breezy onshore flow during the day will
continue into Sat. Poor to hazardous coastal/marine conditions
continue alongside the period of high astronomical tide cycles.
Highest PoPs still slated for Wed/Thu during this period as
another surge of moisture is poised to move across the region.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast with highs
in the L-M80s. Lows continue above climo well into the 60s to
L70s at least thru Sun morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues as gusty NE winds will be
slow to abate thru mid-week. There is gradual improvement in
onshore winds past this time, but may be periods of 15-20 kt
breezes over the open Atlc. Seas will remain hazardous thru late
Thu, then some minor/slow improvement may occur, but still could
be facing Exercise Caution to Advisory conditions offshore thru
much of extended. Gale Warnings gradually give way to Small Craft
Advisories later today/tonight. Scattered, gusty, onshore-moving
showers continue across the Treasure Coast today as drier air
limits shower activity northward. However, moisture does surge
back into the area late today and into Wed/Thu and SCT-NMRS
showers/ISOLD lighting storms will be forecast, once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Band of IFR CIGs will affect LEE through 13Z or so before lifting
to VFR. Northeast winds remain breezy and gusty across the
terminals, with wind speeds of 12 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30
knots possible. Some slight weakening of wind speeds are
anticipated beyond 00Z across the interior terminals. VCSH chances
for today are highest from VRB southward, so have removed mention
at all other terminals. Will monitor closely and amend as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  72  80  72 /  20  10  60  50
MCO  82  72  82  72 /  10  20  70  20
MLB  81  72  82  72 /  20  60  70  60
VRB  83  72  84  71 /  50  70  60  50
LEE  82  69  81  70 /  10   0  50  20
SFB  82  72  81  72 /  10  20  70  40
ORL  82  72  82  73 /  10  20  70  30
FPR  82  71  83  71 /  50  80  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-045-046-053-058-247-254-259-264-547.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen