794
FXUS62 KMLB 281851
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
251 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Beneficial rainfall is expected each day through early next
  week, mainly in the afternoons. However, multiple rounds of
  locally heavy rainfall over the same areas could lead to
  increasing flooding concerns.

- Coverage of showers and storms will be highest near the coast,
  as southwesterly to westerly flow opposes the east coast sea
  breeze.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today
  at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Entering the surf is
  strongly discouraged.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and storms have already
begun pushing NE into the forecast area prior to 2 PM. Expect
coverage to increase over the next several hours (PoPs 60-80%),
with ample moisture (PWATs 2.2-2.3") and convective initiation
along ongoing outflow boundaries. A majority of convection is
forecast to develop along the east coast sea breeze, generally
east of Orlando, later this afternoon. CAMs then maintain these
showers and storms through much of the evening hours as they
slowly drift offshore at around 10 mph. The main threats with any
storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds near 45 mph, and
locally heavy rainfall around 3". A Marginal Risk (1/4) for
excessive rainfall continues across southern portions of the area.
As showers and storms push offshore through the evening hours,
drier conditions then develop overnight, with light offshore flow.
Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s.

Friday-Sunday...With elongated ridging stretched across the
Straits of Florida and the northern Carribean, southwesterly to
westerly flow prevails through the weekend. This will lead to a
continued weak or pinned east coast sea breeze each day, though
winds stay around 10 mph or less. Deep tropical moisture remains
in place most days, with the exception of some slight drying
Saturday, as a couple of shortwaves pass aloft. Therefore, this
regime promotes persistent high coverage of showers and storms
(60-80%) for at least portions, if not all, of the local area
each day afternoon. Widespread accumulations of 1.5-2.5", with
isolated totals in excess of 3" are forecast through the weekend.
Should thunderstorms linger over the same areas multiple days in a
row, flooding concerns may develop, especially for urban areas.
Peeks of sun prior to the afternoon convective period will allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Although,
high humidity will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to near
100.

Monday-Thursday...Weak high pressure remains south of the local
area through early next week, held in place by a cool front
dropping through the southern US. As the front approaches the
Florida peninsula, it is forecast to slow, stalling at times into
mid- week. Where this front stalls and how far southward it makes
it are still a bit uncertain. However, there is generally good
agreement among the models this afternoon that it will at least
make it to central Florida before stalling. Regardless, deep
moisture (PWATs near 2") looks to persist along the boundary, with
possible opposing flow through the column. Therefore, there is
higher confidence in continuing numerous to widespread (60-80%)
coverage of showers and storms, especially in the afternoons.
Rainfall amounts and where they fall will be dependent on the
boundary, though daily widespread accumulations of 1+" are
possible. Will need to monitor accumulations from thunderstorms
through this weekend and their effect on the flooding threat into
next week. Temperatures look to cool slightly into the mid-80s for
highs and lower 70s for lows by the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Overall, favorable boating conditions continue through the
period. High pressure drifting south of the local area today will
linger there into early next week, maintaining offshore flow
around 15 kts or less. Will see winds back south to southeasterly
near the coast in the afternoons as the sea breeze develops, but
remains near or pinned to the coast. High coverage of showers and
storms is forecast to continue, mainly during the afternoons.
Convection is then expected to drift offshore through the evening
hours, occasionally leading to abrupt local increases in winds and
seas. Seas 1-3 ft through this weekend will build to up to 3-5 ft
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

SCT-WIDE TSRA impacts expected at most ECFL terminals this
afternoon-evening. Both east and west coast sea breezes are
already active, the former pinned near the coast in S-SW flow,
favoring a sea breeze collision on the eastern side of the
peninsula. Highest chances for TSRA at KTIX-KSUA, and could see
prolonged impacts through 02Z-04Z, before diminishing/pushing
offshore. Lower coverage/confidence for TSRA at KMCO/other inland
terminals and KDAB, but forecast trends continue to signal
greatest impacts generally between 20Z-23Z, and there is
potential for earlier arrival. Flow expected to usher this
activity east of inland terminals by around 23Z, but could linger
at KDAB until around 03Z. Generally dry/quiet through Friday
morning once convection clears. SW-W flow and very high moisture
Friday will again favor early start to SHRA, and high coverage of
afternoon-evening TSRA INVOF of the ECFL terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  73  88 /  40  80  30  70
MCO  73  89  74  88 /  40  50  20  60
MLB  75  88  75  89 /  50  70  30  60
VRB  73  89  74  89 /  50  70  30  40
LEE  74  90  75  88 /  20  50  20  50
SFB  74  91  74  89 /  30  60  20  70
ORL  75  89  75  88 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  73  88  73  88 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Haley