805
FXUS62 KMLB 171804
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
104 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may
  become locally dense, especially in rural areas.

- Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is
  forecast.

- Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Just south of a large rex block over northeastern N America,
quasi-zonal flow is in place across the Southeast U.S. this
morning. Upstream, you find a shortwave ridge across the Mississippi
Valley, out ahead of additional jet stream energy on the U.S. West
Coast. As the rex block weakens to our north and additional
energy pushes into the Western U.S., mean ridging is strongly
favored to form this week across the Eastern U.S. Above-normal H5
heights arrive over Florida beginning tomorrow, lasting through
the remainder of this forecast period. Total moisture values
remain near normal on most days, but H85 temperatures warm above
normal from Tuesday onward.

At the surface, a weakening cold front is moving southward and
will arrive in Central Florida over the next 6 hours. The front
will dissipate overhead by tonight, with no appreciable cold-air
advection anticipated. High pressure is forecast to push from the
Upper Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon,
allowing onshore breezes to develop locally. High pressure should
remain firmly in control of our weather through the end of the
week as disturbances are deflected well north of the state. By
the weekend, a rather complex upper-air pattern across the
mid-latitudes lends to lower confidence in the timing of our
next cold front. There is a signal for a front to approach the
state around Sunday or Monday of next week, but with the polar
jet remaining along the U.S.-Canadian border, this front doesn`t
appear to be very impactful.

Looking ahead, the MJO is forecast to swing from phase 6 to 7 over
the 2-3 weeks. This supports a fairly typical Easterly QBO / La
Nina pattern, characterized by a baroclinic zone across the Ohio
Valley and positive height anomalies over the Gulf and SW Atlantic
("the Southeast ridge"). In this scenario, one would anticipate
warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over Florida during much of
this period. A small number (around 20%) of 16/12Z ensemble members
show a significant cold front reaching Florida just after
Thanksgiving. However, guidance hints at an MJO progression into
phase 8 as we move deeper into December. Phase 8 would increase the
potential for stronger cold fronts reaching Florida.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Wednesday...

The advancing cold front becomes ill-defined over the next 24 hours
as it stalls over Central FL. There is a slight uptick in moisture
along this feature, which supports the potential for some patchy
dense fog this morning. The signal for fog is strongest west of
Orlando over the next few hours, where the probabilities of
visibility < 1 SM reach 20-30%.

Any showers with the front should hold offshore today, leaving
us with a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon
temperatures. The return of modest onshore flow early this week
eventually drags enough moisture toward the state for low (20%)
shower chances from Tuesday into early Wednesday, mainly along the
Treasure Coast.

Highs each day range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows
should turn a bit milder, with mid/upper 50s near and north of
Orlando to the low/mid 60s at the coast. Light winds and seasonable
moisture combine for the continued potential for patchy fog each
night/early morning.

Thursday - Next Monday...

With deep-layer high pressure over the state late this week and
into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is forecast once
any patchy morning fog burns off. Highs reach the upper 70s to
mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

A cluster of guidance supports a cold frontal passage late Sunday
or next Monday, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable
rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority
of Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain
through Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A weak cold front settles over the local Atlantic before dissipating
tonight. Lingering moisture along the front will give a low chance
for a few showers through early Wednesday. Behind the front early
this week, high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley migrates
toward the Carolina coastline. Winds and seas remain generally
favorable for nearshore boating this week.

N winds 8-12 KT with seas up to 3 FT today. Winds turn NE to E from
Tuesday through the middle of the week, up to 10 KT, with seas
generally 1-3 FT except up to 4 FT in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals through around 08Z
tonight. Conditions are once again favorable for fog reducing VIS
to MVFR between 08Z and 13Z due residual moisture draped across
Central Florida from the weak front, mainly from KMCO/KISM to
KTIX south. Highest chances (around 40% based on HREF guidance)
at KMLB-KFPR, where there is also a low (30% or less) chance for
VIS reductions to IFR. HREF is also showing low (around 30%)
chance of LIFR-VLIFR at KMLB-KFPR, likely due to recent HRRR runs
calling for zero visibility but this guidance has been excessively
over-enthusiastic for days, so considering this model
contamination for now, especially since LAMP remains VFR. Given
these chances continue for several hours, calling for prevailing
MVFR at KMLB- KFPR, and TEMPO MVFR conditions at KMCO/KISM, KTIX,
and KSUA for this package. VFR conditions expected to resume by
14Z at the latest. Light northerly winds become variable at times
overnight, shifting northeast and remaining light Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  78  60  80 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  60  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  80  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  61  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  81  63  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Haley