472
FXUS62 KMLB 130655
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- A pattern of sea breeze focused showers and storms continues
  early this week. Tuesday and Wednesday bring breezier conditions
  with additional rounds of onshore moving showers and storms.

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the middle and latter
  part of next.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central
  Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today-Tonight... A weak area of low pressure lifts northeast along
the mid Atlantic and northeast coastline today. An associated weak
surface boundary sinks through the southeast U.S., and surface
ridging over the region becomes more loosely defined. Winds remain
light, generally attempting to turn offshore ahead of scattered
diurnal convection. High-res guidance generally favors convection on
the west coast sea breeze, aiding a faster progression inland
compared to the east coast breeze. Therefore, a sea breeze collision
is forecast just east of the Orlando Metro where the greatest
coverage of showers and storms should occur late in the afternoon
and into the evening. Steering flow will remain light, although some
pushback toward the coast may occur after the collision. The primary
storm threat remains heavy downpours and the potential for minor
flooding in slow moving storms. Otherwise, frequent lightning and
localized wind gusts 40-50 mph could accompany any stronger storms.
Light to moderate showers and occasional lightning strikes will
likely linger beyond sunset, mostly drying by 10PM.

Expect a muggy start to the day with temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s around sunrise. Temperatures quickly climb into the 80s,
and afternoon highs mostly reach the low 90s today. Peak heat index
values again reach the low triple digits, ranging 100-106 degrees.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches. Always
swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

Monday-Wednesday... A mid to upper level trough slides offshore the
northeast U.S. and digs over the western Atlantic as ridging
amplifies throughout the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure quickly
builds over the eastern seaboard behind the offshore moving surface
front. Winds veer northwest to northeast Monday becoming locally
enhanced out of the east-northeast around 10 mph as the sea breeze
develops and moves inland. The developing onshore flow should favor
the highest coverage of sea breeze driven showers and storms (~60%)
inland and over the western peninsula Monday. A tightening pressure
gradient associated with expanding high pressure increases east-
northeast winds to around 15 mph on Tuesday and 15-20 mph on
Wednesday. Models indicate a gradient of dry air stretching into
portions of north-central Florida Tuesday and Wednesday with highest
rain chances currently forecast south of Orlando and the Cape (60-
80%) where the deepest moisture should reside. However, moistening
of the low levels within increasing onshore flow should be
supportive of rounds of at least scattered (30-50%) showers and
storms further north. Coastal locations should generally continue to
see rounds of showers and occasional storms each night. High
temperatures near to slightly above seasonal values (U80s/L90s) on
Monday fall a few degrees towards climatological normals by
Wednesday (U80s).

Thursday-Saturday... Uncertainty continues to exist within the
synoptic pattern through the extended forecast period. Ridging aloft
remains anchored over the southeast U.S. Thursday, gradually
breaking down late week and into the weekend. A broad area of low
pressure over the southwest Atlantic on Thursday passes over Florida
into Friday as it rounds the southern side of the decaying ridge.
While models show general consistency within the track, guidance
remains split on how the mid level low may evolve. Deterministic
guidance shows this feature as a closed low while ensemble guidance
continue to keep a broad open wave as it passes aloft late week.

Breezy onshore winds are forecast on Thursday before diminishing
through the remainder of the week. Energy aloft should generally
support a continued daily wet pattern of scattered to numerous rain
chances. However, models show wide spread in moisture, and the
extended PoP forecast may wiggle some over the next few forecast
cycles. Afternoon highs hold near normal each day, ranging the upper
80s and nearing 90 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today-Monday... Weak ridging over the local waters broadens early
this week. Light offshore flow each morning shifts onshore with the
sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, increasing to 3 ft far
offshore north of the Cape. Isolated to scattered showers may
develop over the Gulf Stream overnight and early each day.
Otherwise, scattered rain chances are forecast near the coast and
over the intracoastal waters along the sea breeze. Some activity may
push back towards the coast this evening.

Tuesday-Thursday... Deteriorating boating conditions are expected
into mid week as increasing onshore winds spread the local Atlantic
waters. East-northeast winds 10-15 kts into Tuesday afternoon
further increase 20-25 kts overnight and into Wednesday, especially
north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas respond, building 5-8 ft into
Wednesday morning. Conditions gradually improve Thursday as onshore
winds fall to 10-15 kts and seas subside to 4-5 ft. Increased
onshore flow should support high coverage of showers and storms over
the waters through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevailing, with quiet conditions overnight. Light,
overall offshore flow through the morning hours becomes onshore
with the development of the sea breeze after 16-18Z at the coast.
Winds remain around 10 kts or less. CAMs suggest a somewhat
stronger west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision closer
to the east coast, just inland from the coastal terminals. Have
included TEMPOs for interior sites as storms develop along the
west coast breeze and push eastward. Lower confidence in storms
making it to the coastal airports, so PROB30s there. Regardless,
lighter storm motions look to once again allow convection to
linger through around 1Z before diminishing along the collision.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  76 /  50  20  40  10
MCO  92  76  92  76 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  30  20  40  10
VRB  89  74  89  75 /  30  10  40  20
LEE  91  76  92  76 /  60  20  60  10
SFB  92  76  92  76 /  70  30  60  10
ORL  91  77  92  77 /  60  30  60  10
FPR  89  73  89  75 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Wishard