197
FXUS62 KMLB 291049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
649 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Greater coverage of rain and lightning storms into the weekend,
  bringing the potential for localized flooding, gusty winds, and
  frequent lightning strikes

- A moderate rip current risk exists at local beaches from Cape
  Canaveral northward today

- Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal,
  especially into the first half of next week

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Today-Tonight...Weak onshore flow remains at the coast early this
morning with light and variable surface winds farther inland. A
nearly stationary front is analyzed across northern Florida with
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 500mb
ridging is very slowly being suppressed by a deepening trough over
the eastern U.S. The main story today, as will be for the next
several days, is increased rain and lightning storm chances.

As temperatures climb into the mid and upper 80s by lunchtime, the
east coast sea breeze will be developing. Hi-res models do a
decent job showing the evolution of the sea breeze, perhaps
pushing inland a bit faster north of Cape Canaveral and across
southern portions of the Treasure Coast (aided by convective
outflow). While coastal showers and storms will trend inland
through late afternoon, increasing deep westerlies are anticipated
to push convection back toward the Atlantic coast this evening
(especially south of Orlando/Cape Canaveral). This will give many
locations across east central Florida the opportunity for some
measurable rainfall. Global models show a slight cooling of 500mb
temps this afternoon (-6C to -7C). In addition, CAMs depict
favorable moisture/instability and similar low-mid level lapse
rates as yesterday, 8C/km and 6C/km, respectively. Storms that
become organized will be capable of strong gusty winds (45-55
mph), frequent lightning strikes, and torrential rainfall. Per
usual, we will also be monitoring boundary collisions for any
brief rotation.

MRMS QPE over the last 72 hours shows a few swaths of 3-5" of
accumulated rainfall, namely over much of coastal Volusia and
Brevard counties, extending west toward Orange and Osceola
counties. A third maxima exists across inland portions of the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. Many of these same spots
will be at risk for locally heavy rain again today (1-3+"), so
minor flooding of roadways and low-lying/poorly-drained areas is
possible. If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find
an alternate route.

Saturday-Sunday...Deeper moisture return gradually overspreads the
area this weekend as a mid/upper trough extends into south-central
Florida. The quasi-stationary front over north Florida is forecast
to sag slowly southward toward Volusia/Lake county and effectively
stay there through Sunday. As the 500mb trough axis centers itself
over the eastern seaboard, several pieces of energy will rotate
around its base and over east central Florida. Increased dynamical
support will promote higher coverage of showers and lightning
storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Model
guidance indicates more of a "skinny CAPE" SKEW-T profile as PW
climb near/above 2" areawide. As a result, locally heavy rainfall
is forecast both days with the potential for minor flooding
impacts, especially in areas where soils are becoming increasingly
saturated. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall outlines most of
ECFL Saturday and all of the area by Sunday. HREF probabilities
in any given area are around 10-20% for exceeding 2" of rainfall
but as high as 40% where repeated rounds of rain occur over
successive days. In addition to rainfall, water-loaded downdrafts
could produce wind gusts up to 50-55 mph, frequent lightning will
accompany organized storms, and boundary collisions may lead to
brief, isolated instances of rotation (funnel cloud/tornado).

Temperatures over the weekend trend closer to normal, reaching the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees during the day and low to mid 70s
overnight. With rain and storms in the forecast this holiday
weekend, be sure to head indoors at the first sign of
lightning/thunder. Additionally, locally heavy rain can reduce
driving visibility and lead to street flooding. Remember to turn
around if a roadway is impassable due to flooding.

Monday-Thursday...It will take some time for the rainy and stormy
pattern to break heading into next week. This is due in part to a
reinforced mid/upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS through
midweek. A deepening upper low over the Upper Midwest is forecast
to sweep eastward across the Great Lakes Region Wednesday and
Thursday, dragging a strong cold front across the eastern U.S. The
stationary front left over the area this weekend will remain in
place through mid week. By Thursday, influenced by the cold front
pushing southward, this front will begin to dissipate and allow
drier air to work into north-central Florida. Until then, higher
than normal rain chances are forecast through at least Tuesday
(perhaps even Wednesday). Heavy rains from previous days, combined
with additional heavy rainfall, will continue to prop up the
flooding threat into next week. The St. Johns River Basin,
receiving daily rain input, may result in Astor staying in at
least Action Stage for a longer period of time. Highs trend a
couple degrees cooler, too, only reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows will settle into the low/mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A stationary front to the north of the waters will begin to sag
southward today, bisecting the local Atlantic by early next week.
For today and Saturday, light winds gradually turn onshore each
afternoon as the east coast breeze develops. Along and north of
the front from Sunday into next week, winds turn predominantly
ENE, 10-15 kt. Seas remain generally 2-3 ft through Sunday
(locally higher in and around storms), climbing up to 2-4 ft (5 ft
offshore) early next week. Above normal rain and storm chances
will last through at least next Tuesday, with higher coverage in
the evening and overnight hours as inland storms push offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Primary initial concern revolves around the stratus that has
developed across the I-4 corridor early this morning. Models
initially have not handled this well, but suspect it will gradually
burn off through sunrise. L/V winds thru the morning, once again,
then transitioning onshore along the coast early in the afternoon
and trending inland. Will see ISOLD/SCT convection along inland
moving sea breeze with coverage/intensity increasing thru late
aftn and evening into the interior with additional boundary
collisions. SWRLY steering flow a bit stronger than this past day
and should see showers/storms pushing back to the coast and
offshore thru the evening again. Continue TEMPO groups across the
I-4 corridor for this afternoon/early evening, with "Vicinity"
wording for coastal locations. Additional TEMPO groups may be
needed here. TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection, otherwise
mainly VFR - once morning low clouds dissipate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  87  74 /  60  60  80  40
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  60  80  30
MLB  89  75  89  74 /  60  60  80  40
VRB  91  73  91  73 /  60  60  80  40
LEE  90  74  88  74 /  60  30  80  30
SFB  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  80  30
ORL  91  75  89  74 /  60  60  80  30
FPR  91  72  91  72 /  60  60  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock