022
FXUS62 KMLB 011136
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
636 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Later today, rain bands are expected to increase in coverage as
  a disturbance moves overhead. Through Monday, widespread
  rainfall of 1-3 inches is forecast with a 10% chance of 5-7
  inches. Where soils are already saturated, a Flood Watch is in
  effect for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, and Martin Counties
  from 10 am today through Monday afternoon.

- Beach conditions remain dangerous today and Monday along Central
  Florida`s Atlantic coast. A High Surf Advisory remains in
  effect for 5-7 ft breakers, and there is a high risk of life-
  threatening rip currents. Please remain out of the ocean! Minor
  to moderate coastal flooding may occur at high tide mainly near
  and south of St Lucie Inlet.

- The combination of rough seas and fresh easterly winds continues
  to cause hazardous conditions for boaters, especially in the
  open Atlantic. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at
  least Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Early this morning, we are tracking a shortwave trough extending
from the NE Gulf to the Missouri River Valley. This feature is
on the nose of a subtropical jet segment emanating from the Four
Corners to the Plains. At the surface, a 1035 hPa high-pressure
system is centered near Philadelphia, PA. Brisk easterly flow
continues in the boundary layer over Florida, courtesy of a tight
pressure gradient to the south of the surface anticyclone. Copious
moisture, with PWAT values exceeding 170% of normal, extends from
the southern half of Florida into the northern Gulf.

Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance immediately west of Florida
is forecast to move over the state. As this occurs, Central Florida
will become positioned beneath a region of upper-level divergence,
promoting synoptic-scale lift. This may also allow a diffuse surface
trough to develop along the east coast of Florida. As the axis of
deepest moisture centers itself over the peninsula, moisture
convergence should become enhanced, particularly along the
Atlantic coast. A weakly unstable environment is also anticipated,
with MUCAPE values generally around 1250 J/kg or less. The
ingredients for unsettled weather persist into at least Monday
afternoon.

As the mid-level disturbance stalls over the area from late Monday
into Tuesday, jet dynamics will become much less favorable for
lift. However, plentiful moisture is forecast to remain in place
through the middle of the week.

Quasi-zonal flow overtakes much of the U.S. later this week, with
a pair of disturbances transiting the subtropical jet. We have been
following these features in the guidance for a potential cold front
on Thursday. Guidance has been trending weaker with the lead
shortwave, and the 31/12Z ensemble suite continued that approach.
For Florida, the secondary disturbance now provides the better
chance for a diffuse cold frontal passage by Friday. This should
allow some drier air to reach Central Florida next weekend, though
substantial cool air advection is not expected.

Cluster analysis of the global ensembles indicates increasing model
spread next weekend. Trough development is favored over the Southern
Plains by around Sunday, with a reinforcing cold front possibly
arriving by Monday the 9th. This front may have a better chance of
delivering more autumn-like conditions to the area once it passes.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Monday...

The main concerns for the next couple of days are flash flood
potential and hazardous coastal conditions across east central
Florida. Here are some of the impacts...

Heavy Rain/Flooding:

We`re already seeing some brief downpours early this morning,
with bands of showers near Orlando and along the Treasure Coast. A
moisture discontinuity lies between Daytona Beach and Orlando,
with deeper moisture to its south. As the disturbance over the Gulf
approaches, the environment will become increasingly favorable for
rain bands, some of which are expected to become heavy at times. The
greatest chance of this activity through sunset is generally from
Brevard and Osceola Counties and points southward. By tonight,
deeper moisture should overspread all of Central Florida, leading
to additional development of showers and a few storms throughout
the area. The high potential for numerous showers and locally
heavy rain bands is expected to slowly diminish by Monday afternoon.

High precipitation efficiency within slow-moving rain bands may
support locally intense rainfall rates. QPF clusters from the
synoptic models, along with the latest REFS hi-res suite, suggest
the heaviest rain potential is along the coast from Brevard
County southward, perhaps extending into portions of Osceola
and Okeechobee Counties as well. Antecedent conditions (recent
rainfall) have left us with nearly saturated soils across nearly
all of the Treasure Coast urban corridor. Coincident with this,
we have issued a Flood Watch for Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie,
and Martin Counties from 10 AM today until 3 PM Monday. This is
where the greatest threat for flash flooding currently exists,
but there is still a 5-15% chance of excessive rainfall across
all of east central Florida over the next couple of days.

Admittedly, there is a lot of variance in the guidance, affecting
confidence in exactly where the heaviest amounts will fall. All
told, we still forecast widespread 1-3 inches through Monday night,
with a reasonable worst case (10% chance) of 5-7 inches.

Thanks to WFOs Miami and Jacksonville for collaboration on this
heavy rain and flooding threat.

Coastal Hazards:

Persistent easterly winds gusting 20-30 mph continue to cause
rough surf at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect for 5-7 ft breakers. Due to increased
vulnerability caused by recent beach erosion, we have extended the
High Surf Advisory through Monday for similar breaking wave action.
Combined with the high risk of deadly rip currents, it is critical
for residents and visitors to stay out of the ocean.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a concern generally near
and south of St Lucie Inlet during the afternoon high tides. If
excessive rainfall occurs during high tide, flooding may be worsened
due to impeded drainage into tidal waterways.

Tuesday - Friday...

Onshore flow lingers on Tuesday, then begins to lessen on
Wednesday. Ample moisture remains in place, but despite a nearby
disturbance, the setup is less favorable for heavy rain. Still,
we will keep a 50-60% chance for showers on Tuesday and a 30-50%
chance on Wednesday. Areas that pick up heavy rain earlier in
the week will still need to be monitored for localized flooding,
mainly on Tuesday.

Statistical guidance has trended toward rain chances of 20% or
less Thursday and Friday. As mentioned before, the initial cold
front looks weaker, and the secondary boundary on Friday is rather
diffuse, limiting convergence. Highs each day should range through
the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Next Weekend...

Most likely, Central Florida will be in between weather systems next
weekend. This should leave us with tranquil, pleasant conditions. We
currently have a dry forecast with highs in the low 80s and lows
generally in the 60s. It looks somewhat less humid as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Hazardous boating conditions will persist in the Atlantic waters
off of Central Florida through early this week. A strong area of
high pressure over the Northeast U.S. has tightened the pressure
gradient, causing fresh easterly flow across the waters. Numerous
showers and a few storms are forecast later today through Monday
as a disturbance moves overhead. Winds slowly begin to slacken by
late Tuesday and especially Wednesday, allowing seas to gradually
subside by midweek.

The Small Craft Advisory continues for all of the local Atlantic
through at least Tuesday morning, with the offshore zones remaining
beneath the Advisory through at least Tuesday evening. East winds
15-25 kts through Monday, 15-20 kts on Tuesday, decreasing to around
10-15 kts by late Wednesday afternoon. Seas 5-9 ft through Monday,
5-8 ft on Tuesday, and slowly decreasing to 5-7 ft on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 636 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

On and off showers/lightning storms are forecast through the TAF
period with onshore flow. A TEMPO group for MVFR CIGs exists
between 06Z-08Z at KMCO. TEMPO groups exist for MVFR CIGs/VIS
between 18Z/19Z-22Z/23Z, as well as between 14Z-18Z at KMCO.
Expect breezy E winds at 8kts-16kts w/ gusts to 18kts-25kts.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected after 23Z at KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE/KTIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  71  79  71 /  50  80  70  40
MCO  79  69  79  70 /  70  80  60  40
MLB  80  71  80  71 /  80  80  80  60
VRB  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  80  70
LEE  81  69  80  68 /  60  70  50  30
SFB  81  70  79  70 /  60  80  60  40
ORL  80  70  79  71 /  70  80  60  40
FPR  81  72  81  71 /  70  80  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Monday afternoon
     for FLZ154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Fehling