676
FXUS62 KMLB 172323
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- High pressure builds across east central Florida Wednesday,
  limiting rain and storm chances through Thursday. Rain and storm
  chances increase Friday across north interior due to greater
  moisture, but fall once again into the weekend and early next
  week.

- Afternoon highs reach the low to mid 90s most afternoons, with
  peak heat indices ranging from 100 to 105. Heat stress continues
  to be a concern, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and Major
  HeatRisk focused across the greater Orlando area.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Thru Tonight...Late morning Cape sounding shows fairly dry airmass
through the column with a PWAT of 1.40". East coast sea breeze is
pushing inland seen clearly in the cu field on high res vis sat
imagery. Isolated showers have occasionally formed along the
breeze boundary but have not been able to persist given the drier
air. Additional showers and perhaps a storm or two will develop
over the interior late this afternoon as the sea breeze interacts
with larger lake breeze boundaries. Coastal communities will
remain dry. A collision with the west coast sea breeze is
forecast to occur over the interior, well west of Orlando, roughly
near the Lake/Sumter line this evening. The convection will
diminish by midnight with a quiet overnight.

Wed-Mon...Mid-level ridging remains over the Florida peninsula
through Thursday, erodes into Friday, and is replaced by a
stronger mid-level ridge over the weekend and into early next
week. At the surface, the Atlantic high remains generally in
place, with the ridge axis slowly drifting northward through the
period. Pockets of dry air continue to move towards the area
through a majority of the period, keeping rain and storm chances
generally between 30 to 50 percent, except lower along the coast.
The highest rain chances occur on Friday as increasing moisture
across northern sections raises PoPs to 70 percent in the
afternoon. Then wind flow turns more onshore this weekend with a
diffuse sea breeze pushing quickly westward across the peninsula.

Hot conditions are forecast to continue across east central Florida,
with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and peak heat
indices reaching 100 to 105. While these heat indices continue to
remain below Heat Advisory criteria, a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is
forecast to persist across east central Florida. Adequate cooling
and hydration will be key in avoiding any heat stress for residents
and visitors alike if spending extended periods of time outdoors.
Lows in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along the immediate
coast this weekend due to persistent onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An area of high pressure will remain in place across the local
Atlantic waters, with the ridge axis forecast to slowly drift
northward through the period. This will result in south to
southeasterly winds becoming more easterly into early next week.
Wind speeds remain fairly consistent at 5 to 10 knots overnight
into the early morning hours and 10 to 15 knots each afternoon
after the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas are
forecast to remain 2 to 3 feet. Mainly dry through the forecast
period except for isolated showers and storms mainly during the
overnight and morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR outside of convection as the persistent pattern continues,
with ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms ending later this
evening across the interior/I-4 corridor and mostly dry overnight.
ESE/SE (gusty) winds behind the inland moving sea breeze will
become light later this evening and overnight. Light southerly
winds early Wed will again "back" ESE along the coast with sea
breeze formation and march inland. ISOLD-SCT convection in the
afternoon/evening - favoring the interior. VCTS for interior TAF
sites Wed aftn; TEMPO groups to follow later as confidence allows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  40
MCO  75  94  75  95 /  20  30  10  50
MLB  76  89  76  90 /  10  10  10  40
VRB  74  90  74  90 /   0  20  10  40
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  30  30  20  50
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
ORL  77  94  77  94 /  20  20  10  50
FPR  73  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock