196
FXUS62 KMLB 020645
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Breezy to gusty again today along the coast north of Cape
  Canaveral; a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents and
  rough surf continue for Volusia and north Brevard beaches

- Poor to hazardous marine conditions forecast through this
  morning, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward

- Elevated rain chances through Thursday, focused farther south by
  mid to late week; marginal risk of excessive rainfall leading to
  localized flooding

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Current-Tonight...Former weak frontal boundary and associated
weak low pressure across the south-central/south peninsula early
this morning. Low-topped showers with embedded thunder continue to
rotate onto the Volusia and Brevard coasts with periodic brief
downpours. This trend will continue past sunrise. Very deep
moisture (PWATs ~ 2.00-2.20") will continue across the area again
today with SCT/NMRS showers & ISOLD/SCT lightning storms also
forecast. Primary threats continue to be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes in a few stronger storms and repeated heavy
downpours locally that could quickly add up to 1-3" for some and
aggravating any ongoing or new flooding concerns. The WPC
continues to outlook much of ECFL in a low-risk Marginal threat
for Excessive Rainfall. The concern here is if any "banding" is
able to set up for repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Precip chances dwindle thru the evening, but cannot rule out a few
onshore-moving showers thru the night for coastal counties.

Highs today in the M-U80s to around 90F, with a few L90s within
reach should the sun be able to burn through clouds for a period of
time. Overnight lows persistent in the L-M70s and U70s for the
immediate coast.

With continued gusty conditions along the Volusia and north Brevard
coasts and rough surf from building swell, will go ahead and
extend current RP.S through tonight. A HIGH risk of numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents at area beaches will exist
here, with a Moderate risk for south Brevard through the Treasure
Coast. It is strongly advised to stay out of the rough surf.

Wed-Thu...Weak high pressure will align along the Eastern Seaboard
thru mid-week, as persistent onshore flow continues and the pgrad
gradually relaxes. Higher rain chances will be located south of
Orlando where moisture is deepest. Chances 40-50pct north of Orlando
and 50-70pct southward and these numbers may be generous depending
on amount of drier air filtering southward. Well south of Orlando
and towards Lake Okee will still need to be monitored for heavy
rainfall potential. Even with weak mid-level troughing overhead,
instability will be limited with warmer mid-level (H500)
temperatures (-4.5C to -5.5C). There will be occasional weak
subtle shortwave impulses embedded within the WRLY flow that will
aid convection. Perhaps slightly warmer each day with maxes in the
U80s to L90s (esp inland). Not much change to ongoing mins.

Fri-Mon...Increasing mid-level heights in the extended as weak
ridging takes back hold. Still some drier air lingering northward,
but a gradual return of deeper moisture does occur late in the
weekend and early next week. This as the former stalled frontal
boundary across south FL ventures back northward. The moisture
gradient does remain fairly tight north/south and we continue to
advertise scattered convective chances northward and numerous
mention generally south of Orlando. Highs generally in the U80s to
around 90F, though drier air northward may see max temps push
into the L90s near/NW of I-4. Peak heat indices may reach 98-103F
across the area during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Today-Sat...Seas continue to build to 6-7ft at buoy 41070 with
NNE-NE winds 15-20 kts. Seas may be up to 8ft still further
offshore. Will extend the current Small Craft Advisory for all of
the Volusia waters through 10AM/14Z this morning, with Cautionary
Statements for seas building to 6ft across the offshore Brevard
waters. Elsewhere winds are generally 10-15 kts with seas building
3-5 ft. Both winds/seas will gradually continue to improve later
today and into mid to late week as the pgrad relaxes and seas
subside. SCT/NMRS showers with ISOLD/SCT lightning storms remain
forecast across the local waters today. Unsettled weather
conditions continue thru mid-week as deep moisture lingers across
the waters leading to above normal chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers and possibly a storm or two will still be able to
push onshore through this morning, producing tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions. Models also suggesting some lowering cloud cover north
of stalled front across south FL, which may lead to predominant MVFR
cigs overnight and lingering through early this morning. Showers
will expand in coverage and shift farther S/SW into the late morning
and afternoon, with some scattered storms also possible. Tempo 3hr
MVFR TSRA impact groups included for all TAF sites between 18-23Z.
Rain chances diminish into the evening, but isolated to scattered
coastal showers will continue to be possible into Tuesday night.

Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5-7 knots through this morning,
becoming N/NE into the late morning and afternoon increasing up to
10-13 knots, with higher gusts to 20-23 knots at the coast, mainly
near to north of KMLB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  74  86  74 /  60  30  40  20
MCO  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  88  76  89  76 /  60  30  60  30
VRB  90  74  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
LEE  88  73  89  73 /  50  20  40  20
SFB  88  74  89  74 /  60  30  50  20
ORL  88  74  89  74 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  90  74  89  73 /  60  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Weitlich