855
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- High pressure builds across east central Florida Wednesday,
  limiting rain and storm chances through Thursday. Rain and storm
  chances increase Friday across north interior due to greater
  moisture, but fall once again into the weekend and early next
  week.

- Afternoon highs reach the low to mid 90s most afternoons, with
  peak heat indices ranging from 100 to 105. Heat stress continues
  to be a concern, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and Major
  HeatRisk focused across the greater Orlando area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Thru Tonight...Late morning Cape sounding shows fairly dry airmass
through the column with a PWAT of 1.40". East coast sea breeze is
pushing inland seen clearly in the cu field on high res vis sat
imagery. Isolated showers have occasionally formed along the
breeze boundary but have not been able to persist given the drier
air. Additional showers and perhaps a storm or two will develop
over the interior late this afternoon as the sea breeze interacts
with larger lake breeze boundaries. Coastal communities will
remain dry. A collision with the west coast sea breeze is
forecast to occur over the interior, well west of Orlando, roughly
near the Lake/Sumter line this evening. The convection will
diminish by midnight with a quiet overnight.

Wed-Mon...Mid-level ridging remains over the Florida peninsula
through Thursday, erodes into Friday, and is replaced by a
stronger mid-level ridge over the weekend and into early next
week. At the surface, the Atlantic high remains generally in
place, with the ridge axis slowly drifting northward through the
period. Pockets of dry air continue to move towards the area
through a majority of the period, keeping rain and storm chances
generally between 30 to 50 percent, except lower along the coast.
The highest rain chances occur on Friday as increasing moisture
across northern sections raises PoPs to 70 percent in the
afternoon. Then wind flow turns more onshore this weekend with a
diffuse sea breeze pushing quickly westward across the peninsula.

Hot conditions are forecast to continue across east central Florida,
with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and peak heat
indices reaching 100 to 105. While these heat indices continue to
remain below Heat Advisory criteria, a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is
forecast to persist across east central Florida. Adequate cooling
and hydration will be key in avoiding any heat stress for residents
and visitors alike if spending extended periods of time outdoors.
Lows in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along the immediate
coast this weekend due to persistent onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An area of high pressure will remain in place across the local
Atlantic waters, with the ridge axis forecast to slowly drift
northward through the period. This will result in south to
southeasterly winds becoming more easterly into early next week.
Wind speeds remain fairly consistent at 5 to 10 knots overnight
into the early morning hours and 10 to 15 knots each afternoon
after the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas are
forecast to remain 2 to 3 feet. Mainly dry through the forecast
period except for isolated showers and storms mainly during the
overnight and morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail outside of late afternoon-evening ISO
SHRA/TSRA near the Orlando area terminals. The sea breeze has
developed, shifting winds at coastal terminals to the ESE-SE at
10-15 kts, with gusts 20-25 kts at KMLB-KSUA. Weak southerly flow
favors a sea breeze collision near KLEE and west of the Orlando
terminals around 23Z-00Z. SHRA/TSRA could develop as early as 21Z
(18Z at KDAB) along the sea breeze as it pushes inland, with the
highest chances (such as they are at 20-30 pct) along the
collision. Any SHRA/TSRA that manages to develop expected to
dissipate by 02Z or so. Overnight winds return to light SSE-SE,
becoming VRB at times. Rinse and repeat Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  40
MCO  75  94  75  95 /  20  30  10  50
MLB  76  89  76  90 /  10  10  10  40
VRB  74  90  74  90 /   0  20  10  40
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  30  30  20  50
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
ORL  77  94  77  94 /  20  20  10  50
FPR  73  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley