540
FXUS62 KMLB 031046
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

- A HIGH risk of rip currents remains north of Cape Canaveral with
  a Moderate risk southward

- Elevated rain chances continue, focused south of Orlando through
  late week, with higher coverage returning northward late
  weekend and into early next week

- Temperatures warm slightly each day into the weekend, with peak
  heat indices approaching 100 to 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Current-Tonight...Fairly significant moisture spread across ECFL
early this morning with PWATs near 1.50" across north Lake/north
Volusia counties and 2.15" across southern Martin County. This will
keep highest diurnal PoPs across our southern CWA. As a result, we
are going with 20-40pct along/north of I-4 with 50-70pct southward
toward Lake Okee. A heavy rainfall threat will exist well south of
Orlando and toward Lake Okee and portions of the Treasure Coast
later this afternoon and early evening. Aside from heavy
downpours and minor/nuisance flooding, additional primary storm
threats include occasional to frequent lightning strikes in a few
storms, and gusty winds 35-50 mph locally. Activity will diminish
thru the evening hours, but we could see an ISOLD threat overnight
along the coast - generally south of the Cape. Northeast winds
today 10-15 mph - highest along the Volusia coast with some
stronger gusts.

Highs today in the U80s to around 90F, with a few L90s within reach
across the interior. Overnight lows persistent in the L-M70s and
U70s possible for the immediate coast.

A HIGH risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at
area beaches continues for north Brevard and Volusia counties. A
Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents exists across south
Brevard through the Treasure Coast.

Thu-Thu Night...High pressure weakens along the Eastern Seaboard
with former frontal boundary still strewn across the southern FL
peninsula. Maintain NE/ENE winds with speeds approaching 8-12 mph
during the afternoon. Deepest moisture still resides southward with
PoPs 35-45pct along/north of I-4 and 50-70pct further south. These
numbers may still be too generous even with cutting back on NBM
values. Instability remains limited with warmer mid-level (H500)
temperatures (-5C to -6C). There will be occasional weak subtle
shortwave impulses embedded within the WRLY flow that will aid
diurnal convection. Highs in the U80s to L90s with overnight lows
consistent in the 70s.

Fri-Tue...A rather dull pattern aloft until mid-level troughing
approaches the region again early next week. While mid-level heights
do increase a bit the H500 temp remains fairly consistent (-5C
and -6C). We start the period where we left off, lower PWATs
(1.50") northward and higher values southward (2.15"). Deeper
moisture areawide finally gets pulled back northward later in the
weekend and early next week. The pgrad remains weak and thus light
onshore flow dominates, but we may see periods overnight/early
mornings where offshore flow reigns (if only briefly). We do carry
SCT-NMRS PoPs thru the period (and have cut back on NBM numbers),
but some of these numbers may have to be tempered back a bit more
as we move forward due to the high NBM bias. Highs mainly in the
U80s to L90s, but could see a few M90s readings N/W of I-4 this
weekend. Peak heat indices may approach 100 to 105 degrees for
some areas this weekend. No change in our persistent overnight
mins.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Today-Sun...Seas remaining a bit stubborn early this morning so
will carry Cautionary Statements for seas building to 4-6 ft early
in the period for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard waters.
Wave heights 3-5 ft elsewhere today. Expecting improving
conditions thru late morning and afternoon. North to Northeast
winds 10-15 kts. Wind flow remains generally light onshore thru
the period as the pgrad gradually relaxes and could see some
periods overnight/early mornings where the flow is light offshore.
By the time we get to Fri, seas should remain AOB 3 ft outside of
showers/lightning storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. Scattered showers and storms will move
onshore through the day. Models struggle with these features, so
have maintained VCSH this morning along the coast, becoming VCTS
around 17-1Z and spreading inland. MLB/TIX currently have the
highest confidence for timing and impacts, so have included a
TEMPO there for reductions possible between 18-22Z. Elsewhere,
timing confidence and coverage is too low to include a TEMPO at
this time, so amendments may be needed. CAMs suggest showers and
storms persisting after sunset along the Treasure Coast. For now,
have continued VCTS through 4Z. Otherwise, convection is expected
to diminish by around 0Z.

N/NNE winds through the period will remain around 10 kts or less,
with the exception of DAB, which is forecast to see speeds of
10-15 kts this afternoon. Winds will lighten near sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  88  75 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  60  20
MLB  88  77  88  75 /  50  40  60  40
VRB  90  74  89  74 /  60  50  70  40
LEE  90  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  10
SFB  89  74  90  75 /  40  20  50  20
ORL  90  75  91  75 /  40  20  60  20
FPR  90  73  90  73 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Leahy