425
FXUS62 KMLB 182354
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast into early next week, with
  scattered to locally numerous showers and lightning storms
  anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
  heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible
  in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide.
  Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Current-Tonight...The NHC continues to monitor showers and storms
over the eastern Gulf associated with an upper-level low and surface
trough. This upper-level feature will continue to move slowly north,
parallel to the west FL coast thru tonight. The NHC continues to
limit tropical development to low (30%) over the next 48 hours and
medium (40%) thru 7 days.

Temperatures will top out in the L90s (few M90s sprinkled in) this
afternoon ahead of sea breezes/afternoon storms with peak heat
indices of 100-105F. Ample moisture, daytime heating, and boundary
collisions will be the catalysts for SCT diurnal convection; highest
across the interior. Primary storm impacts from stronger storms
include frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, localized
wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and small hail. Stronger (southerly)
steering flow this aftn/eve may ease flooding concerns a bit, but
prone areas or locations that have recently seen heavy downpours
over multiple days may warrant monitoring for minor flooding
concerns. Activity is forecast to gradually diminish into the mid-
late evening with cloud-cover gradually thinning. Mostly dry
conditions anticipated overnight across land. Warm and humid with
lows in the 70s areawide.

Sun-Mon...Unsettled weather pattern during this period. The upper
low will continue to slowly meander north Sun/Sun night while
remaining over water (NE Gulf), then further NW toward the FL
Panhandle, S AL/S MS by sunrise Tue morning. The NHC and local
weather offices will continue to monitor this weak system as it is
now trending a bit further north/west from ECFL as gradual
development remains possible during this time; perhaps a tropical
depression within the next couple/few days. The surface pressure
ridge axis will slowly build back toward south FL from the western
Atlc during this time. We will still maintain southerly flow and
occasional "backing" to SERLY with daily sea breeze formation
along the coast, with daily sea breeze/boundary collisions across
the interior in the aftn/eve. Wind speeds increasing to 10-15 mph
with higher afternoon gusts forecast. Storm steering will remain
southerly thru this time. Generally SCT (30-50%) to locally NMRS
(60%) diurnal convective coverage expected. Storm impacts continue
to include lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential
downpours. The further westward this system meanders, it could
alleviate heavy rainfall/flooding concerns for ECFl. However,
typical ISOLD hefty rainfall totals may still occur regardless of
this system`s position and development.

Temps are anticipated to remain near to slightly above normal
through the period, with highs in the L90s (ISOLD M90s) and peak
heat indices 100-105F. Persistent lows in the 70s.

Tue-Fri...The mid/upper-level low over the north Gulf is forecast to
weaken thru mid-week as mid-level high pressure builds westward from
the western Atlc, across the FL peninsula, and into the Gulf. This
high pressure cell gradually gets consolidated with broader and
stronger high pressure across the southern Plains and Texas. As
this happens, northerly flow aloft develops across the FL
peninsula with mid-level impulses spilling southward late in the
week. This will allow a frontal boundary to slide south, but
still remain across north FL thru late week. Generally southerly
flow continues across the area becoming SE behind the daily sea
breeze and SW again at night. Deepest moisture remains north of
ECFL surging along the aforementioned front, but higher values may
slide back south into the area late Thu/Fri depending on how far
south the front is able to penetrate. We maintain ISOLD-SCT
(20-40%) rain chances presently.

Slight warming trend is forecast into mid to late week, with greater
coverage of M90s for highs forecast each day. Peak heat indices 100-
107F. Overnight lows in the 70s and conditions humid.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Sun-Wed...Unsettled weather pattern as an upper-level low over the
eastern Gulf slowly moves north parallel to the west FL coast thru
Sun night, then further north/west Mon/Tue before dissipating. While
additional development remains possible with this system, it has
recently trended further away from east central FL. This will still
lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient increasing southerly
(SW/S/SE) winds to 15-20 kts at times during this period. Seas
generally forecast to remain 2-4 ft, but locally higher invof
storms. ISOLD-SCT showers and storms are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Only isold SHRA/TSRA through this evening with no mention of
precip at the terminals. Winds light southerly picking up near 10
knots Sunday, turning SE behind the sea breeze at coastal
terminals with gusts up to 20 knots. Have inserted PROB30 groups
for MCO/SFB late in the afternoon for MVFR TSRA lifting up from
the south and west. There may be some morning SHRA lifting
northward along the Treasure coast and have included a VCSH for
SUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  76  92 /  20  30  10  40
MCO  76  94  77  93 /  30  50  30  40
MLB  77  91  77  92 /  10  30  10  50
VRB  76  92  76  93 /  10  30  10  50
LEE  77  92  77  92 /  30  40  30  50
SFB  76  94  77  93 /  40  40  10  40
ORL  77  93  78  93 /  30  50  20  40
FPR  75  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly