905
FXUS62 KMLB 191055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather has been
  outlooked for portions of ECFL today. An active weather pattern
  is forecast into early next week, with scattered to locally
  numerous showers and lightning storms anticipated through at
  least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, gusty
  winds up to 55 mph (5 percent chance up to 60 mph in stronger
  storms today), and heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding
  will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide.
  Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today-Monday... The upper level low and surface low pressure across
the northeast Gulf and near northwest Florida will slowly move
northward towards the Florida Big Bend today and then move northwest
towards the panhandle of Florida and south AL/south MS into Monday.
As this system moves northward over the next couple of days, it may
become a tropical depression. NHC has placed a 60 percent chance of
tropical development over the next 36 to 48 hours. NHC and the local
weather offices will continue to monitor this system as it moves
north and westward (away from ECFL). The surface high pressure in
the western Atlantic will slowly build its axis towards southern
Florida through the period. Locally, southern winds will prevail
with speeds 10-15 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
in the afternoon and push inland, backing the winds southeasterly,
with the sea breeze collision occurring across the interior each
afternoon/evening.

The rain chances continue to slightly decrease over the local area
from previous forecast packages as the low pressure system trends
more westward. There is a medium (30-50 percent) chance of rain and
lightning storms each day. Highest coverage will generally be across
the interior where the sea breeze collision will occur. Some storms
may be strong to marginally severe. SPC has outlooked portions of
east central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe
weather today. The environment supports this with forecast soundings
showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2000-2700 J/kg), steep lapse
rates, sufficient shear (SFC-6km shear of ~ 20 KT), and plenty of
downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm hazards will be
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 55 mph (and a 5
percent chance for wind gusts up to 60 mph this afternoon), and
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3", with 3+" possible in stronger
storms. Some minor, localized, flooding will also be possible in
training rain bands. While some of the heavy rainfall and flooding
concerns may be alleviated as this system moves further westward,
typical isolated heavy rainfall totals and minor flooding may
still occur regardless of this systems position and development.

Any lingering shower and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or
move out of the area each evening, with mostly dry conditions
forecast each night. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will
continue with afternoon high temperatures in the low mid 90s and
peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will continue
to be in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Saturday.... The upper level low pressure system near the
southeast US will gradually diminish into the middle of next week,
causing the surface low to weaken and become diffuse. Surface high
pressure across the western Atlantic will shift its axis northward
from South Florida to central Florida and out into the Gulf by late
week. Northerly flow aloft will then develop as the high pressure
gets consolidated, which will allow upper level vorticity to
traverse across the Florida peninsula late week. This will allow a
frontal boundary to slide southward into north Florida and stall
through late week. Locally, winds will generally be southerly around
10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each
afternoon, turning the winds onshore (southeasterly) behind the sea
breeze. Deep moisture along the frontal boundary across north
Florida may slide southward into central Florida late week depending
on how far the frontal boundary makes it before stalling. For now,
have maintained a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms through
Friday, and a 20-40 percent chance on Saturday. Slight warming trend
is forecast into mid to late week, with greater coverage of mid 90s
for highs each day. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s each
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today-Thursday... The upper level low and surface low pressure
across the northeast Gulf will slowly move northward towards the
Florida Big Bend today and then move northwest towards the panhandle
of Florida and south AL/south MS into Monday before weakening and
becoming diffuse into the middle of next week. As this system moves
northward over the next couple of days, it may become a tropical
depression. NHC has placed a 60 percent chance of tropical
development over the next 36 to 48 hours. The formation of the low
pressure will result in the pressure gradient tightening across the
local area, increasing the southerly winds to 10-15 knots across
most of the waters. Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots
across the Volusia nearshore waters this afternoon and into this
evening. Because of this, small craft will need to exercise caution
in the nearshore Volusia waters during those times. Seas 2 to 3 feet
today will increase in response to the winds to 2 to 4 ft by Monday
afternoon. Southerly winds will persist through at least the middle
of next week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots. Seas will remain
between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before slowly subsiding
to 2-3 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and storms
will continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

SSE winds pick up to around 10 knots after 14Z, becoming gusty at
some terminals through this afternoon. Bands of rainfall will
move across east central Florida this afternoon, with VCSH/VCTS
chances increasing after 17Z. PROB30s for VIS and CIG reductions
due to TSRA remain in the forecast between 20-24Z at all interior
terminals and have been added at DAB, TIX, and MLB. Activity will
gradually diminish after 00Z, with some lingering VCSH possible
through 06Z at MCO and the other interior terminals. SSE winds
will become light once again overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  77  92  77 /  30  10  40  20
MCO  94  77  94  77 /  40  10  40  20
MLB  91  77  92  77 /  30  20  50  20
VRB  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  40  20
LEE  92  77  92  78 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  94  77  94  78 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  93  78  93  78 /  40  10  40  20
FPR  92  75  93  75 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen