170
FXUS62 KMLB 021051
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
651 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms between
  roughly 3-11 PM today, especially near and north of I-4. The
  primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There
  is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado.

- Hot ahead of the storms today with widespread low/mid 90s in
  the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which
  affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to
  adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms on
  Saturday afternoon. Combined with low relative humidity and
  drought conditions, sensitive to critical fire weather
  conditions are forecast. Outdoor burning is discouraged today!
  A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon south of Orlando
  and the Cape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today...A cold front extending from the northern Gulf across
north FL this morning is forecast to push into Lake/Volusia
counties later this afternoon and across the remainder of EC FL
tonight. Ahead of this front, strong and gusty SW winds will
produce a windy day. Despite considerable high cloud cover across
northern sections, it will not take much heating to mix down 30
knot winds located just above the sfc. So a Wind Advisory has
been issued for Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near
35 mph peaking during the early to mid afternoon. Max temps
across Lake/Volusia counties may hold in the upper 80s due to the
cloud cover and incoming convection later this aftn assocd with
the front.

Southern sections (south of Orlando) will have additional
concerns. While also breezy/gusty, better heating will produce
hotter temps reaching the mid 90s even at the coast due to lack of
any sea breeze due to the offshore (SW) flow. This will produce
near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. In addition, deep mixing will
produce lowest RH values across the south. Low RH combined with
the gusty SW winds and already dry conditions has prompted a Red
Flag Warning from Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure
coast. Important to note that today will be a very fire sensitive
day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most likely to
be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will be
capable of spreading rapidly.

Increased moisture (PWAT 1.70-2.00") along the frontal zone will
combine with cool mid levels (-10 to -11C at 500mb), sufficient
instability (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and most notably strong upper
level shear 50-65 knots to produce a risk of strong to severe
storms this aftn and eve focused along and north of I 4 but
extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. There
are some mitigating factors though, including a warm layer near
700 mb as well as deep mixing which will produce high LCLs. So
the tornado threat looks quite low. The primary threat will be
strong to damaging wind gusts (5-15% chance). Large hail would be
more likely in discrete individual supercells but the shear may be
too strong too allow for this. Convection is forecast to weaken
by late this eve as the front pushes southward into Okeechobee/
Treasure coast.

Any lightning strikes may spark brush fires that smolder for a
day or two before flaring up.

Sunday...The front will be across south FL but a ripple of energy
riding along the front will keep clouds and rain chances across
southern sections, with highest rain chances (70%) focused on
Martin county. Drier air filtering in from the north will
producing increasing sunshine across the north. North to northeast
wind flow will produce breezy conditions along the coast at 20-25
mph and noticeably cooler temps in the mid to upper 70s, lower
80s Lake county.

Mon-Fri...Zonal flow aloft will continue the first half of the
week with a ridge nosing in from the SW Gulf mid week. This ridge
will get flattened by a long wave trough rotating across the
eastern CONUS late week. At the surface, elongated high pressure
will extend from the Gulf Coast States across the Southeast U.S,
shifting southward mid-week ahead of the next front pushing into
the deep South. The front is forecast to push across the area
around Friday but moisture looks rather meager so rain chances are
currently low. There will be a quick warm-up with afternoon highs
reaching into the low to mid 90s by Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Southwest winds will increase today ahead of a frontal boundary
draped across north FL. Winds 15-20 knots will be prevalent over
the offshore waters especially south of Sebastian Inlet. A period
of 20 knots winds (advisory criteria) is forecast this afternoon
but will handle with a Caution as duration looks brief. The front
will push into the northern waters late today with a wind shift
out of the W/NW over the Volusia waters and an increase of 15-20
knots. The front is forecast to continue southward reaching south
FL by early Sat. Winds will turn N behind the front at 15-20 knots
tonight and N/NE Sunday. Seas build 4-5 FT nearshore and 6 FT in
the Gulf Stream behind the front. Do not anticipate need for an
SCA so will handle with a Caution. Nonetheless, boating conditions
will be poor on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
storms will accompany the front and linger across the southern
waters Sunday.

Elongated high pressure to the north builds over the area Mon-Tue
with winds gradually becoming more East by Tue and speeds 10-15
knots. Winds become SE Wed as the trailing ridge axis settles
southward toward the area. Seas fall below 6 FT in the Gulf Stream
late Mon with 3-4 FT Tue and 3 FT Wed areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
- Gusty southwest winds from late morning through the afternoon.
  Peak gusts to around 30 KT.
- Scattered TS with a low (10-20%) chance for wind gusts exceeding
  35 KT between 21Z-01Z.
- Wind shift to NW on this evening behind TSRA/SHRA, followed by a
  period of MVFR CIGs tonight.

Little bit of fog/stratus hard to see on satellite under high
clouds marauding around ECFL this morning. Could see some MVFR-
IFR reductions from KMCO/KISM-KMLB-KTIX before 13Z. Light W-SSW
winds early this morning quickly increase ahead of an approaching
front to SW 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 13Z, then further
increase to 15-20 kts with gusts to around 30 kts after 16Z, and
can`t rule out winds occasionally pushing higher in the early
afternoon. SCT TSRA along/ahead of the front arrive at KLEE/KDAB
first around 18Z, gradually pushing south over the next several
hours, reaching the KSUA around 02Z, then dissipating after 05Z.
ISO +TSRA that could produce wind gusts exceeding 35 kts possible,
especially from KMLB north between 19Z-03Z. High moisture near
the front will continue to produce -SHRA and drop CIGs to MVFR
behind the main convective line through most of the night.
Gradually southward clearing of CIGs after 08Z as the front
settles into South Florida.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong and gusty southwest to west winds today will increase 15-25
mph with gusts 30-35 mph by early afternoon and produce a fire
weather sensitive day across all of east central FL. Hottest temps
and lowest RH values will occur south of Orlando where mid 90s and
critical RH values are forecast. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Osceola, Okeechobee, Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River
and south Brevard counties this afternoon. Dispersion values will be
Excellent all areas. Such conditions will support rapid spread of
any new or existing fires.

An cold front will push into Lake and Volusia counties late today
and reach south Florida early Sunday. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will accompany the front beginning late this
afternoon across the north, spreading southward tonight. Cooler on
Sunday behind the front with lingering showers and storms across
southern sections. Any lightning strikes will be a concern for new
fire starts. Unfortunately, the rainfall this weekend is forecast to
bring only limited drought relief.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Record high temperatures today:

Site     May 2
DAB    95 (1953)
LEE    95 (1990)
SFB    94 (2010)
MCO    97 (1906)
MLB    95 (2002)
VRB    94 (2002)
FPR    95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  61  77  61 /  60  50  10   0
MCO  92  64  79  64 /  40  70  20  10
MLB  93  67  78  67 /  20  60  40  20
VRB  94  68  77  66 /  20  60  60  30
LEE  88  61  80  60 /  60  60  10   0
SFB  91  63  80  61 /  40  60  10  10
ORL  90  64  80  63 /  40  60  20  10
FPR  94  68  77  66 /  10  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ053-058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley