102
FXUS62 KMLB 111438
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Dry and breezy conditions will result in hazardous fire weather
  conditions today, especially from the Orlando metro south to
  Okeechobee County.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions are expected through
  tonight as strong north to northwest winds persist and seas
  remain elevated.

- Lighter winds and cold temperatures across Lake and Volusia
  counties tonight support the potential for frost development.

- Dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week with a
  gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Today-Tonight...A cold and breezy start to Tuesday, with lows
still forecast to fall into the 30s across most of east central
Florida. Areas from the Cape southward are forecast to fall into
the 40s. North to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will cause wind
chill values to fall into the 20s to mid 30s areawide, with a Cold
Weather Advisory remaining in effect through 9 AM for all
portions of east central Florida except coastal St. Lucie and
coastal Martin counties.

Through the remainder of today, dry and breezy conditions are
forecast to persist as an area of high pressure begins to shift
towards the Florida peninsula. Winds remain out of the north to
northwest at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph forecast through
much of today, with winds slowly subsiding late this afternoon
into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient weakens locally.
At the beaches, elevated seas will lead to rough surf, with a
High Surf Advisory and a high risk of rip currents in effect at
all east central Florida beaches. Temperatures are forecast to
remain below normal today, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Tonight, lows fall into the mid to upper 30s near and
north of the I- 4 corridor and into the 40s southward and along
the coast. With winds subsiding overnight and temperatures falling
into the mid 30s in some spots, the development of frost will be
possible, particularly across portions of Lake County and inland
Volusia County. A Frost Advisory has been issued for these areas
overnight. Residents are advised to take proper precautions
relative to any sensitive plants.

Wednesday-Monday...Surface high pressure will remain in place
across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of this week
and into early next week. This will keep conditions mostly dry
through the extended period, with light northwest to northeast
winds through Friday becoming more southerly over the weekend.
Long-range guidance has backed off on rain chances late weekend
into early next week due to discrepancies between the Euro and GFS
relative to timing of the next potential frontal passage, so
would anticipate some back and forth through the extended period
on rain chances. Temperatures continue to remain below normal on
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows falling
into the 40s to mid 50s. A warming trend is then forecast through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with highs in the
70s to low 80s and low in the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist across the local
Atlantic waters due to prevailing north to northwest winds of 20
to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 12 feet. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect across the local Atlantic waters through this
evening, with the offshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters
remaining under a Small Craft Advisory through at least early
Wednesday morning.

An area of high pressure is forecast to settle across the Florida
peninsula and the local Atlantic waters, with winds and seas
subsiding into Wednesday. A return of favorable boating
conditions are anticipated on Wednesday and are forecast to
prevail through the remainder of this week and into the weekend.
Northwest to northeast winds between 10 to 15 knots continue
through Friday, becoming southerly into the weekend. Seas subside
to 2 to 4 feet. Rain is not anticipated across the local Atlantic
waters through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR. Gusty NW winds continue into today - veering slightly to N
into the afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually diminish thru the
afternoon, and further tonight becoming light as the pgrad relaxes
with high pressure moving into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 930 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are forecast across
east central Florida today. A dry air mass situated across the
area will cause minimum RH values to fall into the 25-35% range
across the interior, with values along the coast remaining in the
40-50% range. Additionally, breezy north to northwest winds of 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph will persist, though they will
gradually subside this afternoon as an area of high pressure
shifts towards the area. A Red Flag Warning now includes Seminole,
Orange, and Osceola counties, in addition to Okeechobee County,
through 4 PM. Other portions of the interior will approach
critical thresholds, but there is less confidence at this time in
both wind and RH being met at the same time. Looking ahead this
week, winds diminish to 10 mph or less, with dry air remaining in
place.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Tuesday, November 11th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 11-Nov  35 1956  59
Leesburg (LEE)      11-Nov  38 1962  58
Sanford (SFB)       11-Nov  39 1962  59
Orlando (MCO)       11-Nov  39 1932  59
Melbourne (MLB)     11-Nov  42 1962  62
Vero Beach (VRB)    11-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   11-Nov  42 1991  61

Wednesday, November 12th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 12-Nov  40 1995  59
Leesburg (LEE)      12-Nov  38 1991  58
Sanford (SFB)       12-Nov  40 1968  59
Orlando (MCO)       12-Nov  35 1913  59
Melbourne (MLB)     12-Nov  42 1968  61
Vero Beach (VRB)    12-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   12-Nov  41 1991  61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  38  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  57  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  46  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  47  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  38  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  57  39  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  41  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  47  72  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ041-044-144.

     Red Flag Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ045-046-
     053-058.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock