678
FXUS62 KMLB 231031
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
631 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Drier air will result in lower than normal shower and storm
  chances today. Increasing moisture into late week and through
  the weekend will then allow rain chances to return to near to
  above normal values.

- Near to above-normal afternoon temperatures will persist through
  the period with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each day.
  Practicing heat safety will be key to avoid heat-related
  illness!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today... A surface ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic
lifts into north Florida, keeping east to southeast flow in place
locally. A few showers which develop over the Atlantic waters may
move onshore portions of the Treasure Coast early in the day.
Otherwise, a dry airmass (PWAT ~1.4-1.6") will favor below normal
diurnal rain chances, and low coverage (10-20%) of afternoon/evening
showers and storms should be limited to portions of the far interior
and the western side of the peninsula. An isolated lightning storm
across the interior that mixes with dry air aloft will be capable
of localized gusty winds of 40-50 mph. With limited rain chances,
hot conditions are forecast. Highs will range the low 90s along
the coast and near Lake Okeechobee while reaching the mid to upper
90s across portions of the north interior in vicinity of I-4. The
drier airmass should aid in keeping peak heat index values below
Heat Advisory Criteria, and values are forecast to mostly range
100-105F.

Friday-Saturday... Onshore flow continues on Friday as the surface
ridge axis remains near to north of the local area. Moisture is
advected from the south and east as a weak disturbance passes south
of the area. Rounds of isolated to scattered showers may move
onshore portions of the southern Brevard and Treasure Coast early
Friday before coverage looks to become more diurnally driven into
the afternoon. Pockets of drier are may limit rain chances across
the far north with scattered to locally numerous (~30-60%)
afternoon/evening showers and storms primarily forecast from
Sanford/Leesburg southward. The local pattern begins to shift
Saturday as weak low pressure develops offshore the mid Atlantic
coast and high pressure is nudged south and west. In response, winds
turn offshore out of the southwest. The plume of deeper moisture
remains spread across east central Florida, and scattered to
numerous showers and storms are forecast along a sea breeze
collision with the greatest coverage from the Orlando Metro
southward (40-60%). A few stronger storms each day will be capable
of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy
downpours.

Increasing rain chances may allow temperatures to fall a degree or
two on Friday, and highs mostly range the low to mid 90s. However,
warmer temperatures quickly return Saturday as low-level winds shift
offshore (southwest) and the axis of high pressure aloft slides
slightly southward over the central Florida peninsula. Low 90s
continue along the coast and near Lake Okeechobee on Saturday while
temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s across the north interior
including areas of the Orlando Metro. Will need to watch for peak
heat index values near Heat Advisory Criteria across portions of the
area on Saturday, and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk will impact those
without adequate cooling and hydration.

Sunday-Wednesday... Deep moisture continues to spread east central
Florida through the first half of next week as a cold front slowly
sags across the southeast U.S. Offshore flow out of the southwest
will favor a sea breeze collision across the eastern side of the
peninsula late each day. This should result in a pattern of
scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening.
Outside of showers and storms, high temperatures are forecast to
trend a degree or two above normal for most locations, ranging the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mostly favorable winds and seas through early next week. The
Atlantic ridge axis will remain near or north of the local waters
through Friday, maintaining a period of onshore (easterly) winds
around 5-12 kts. By this weekend, the ridge axis will shift south of
the local waters. Light south to southwest winds develop Saturday
before prevailing offshore (southwest) flow (7-12 kts) develops
through early next week. Winds locally increase and shift east to
southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas mostly
hold around 2-3 ft, occasionally increasing up to 4 ft far offshore.

Isolated showers and storms are forecast south of the Cape today,
becoming scattered in coverage late tonight and into early Friday.
Offshore moving showers and storms are forecast Saturday afternoon
and evening, building in coverage Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions continue outside of ISOLD convection. Light
winds become generally ERLY with speeds increasing 7-13 kts and
some higher aftn gusts. Still drier overall, but will monitor for
the Treasure Coast terminals during the morning and well inland in
the afternoon for any convective potential. May need "Vicinity"
showers along the Treasure Coast this morning and brief TEMPO
groups as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  76  90  76 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  96  76  95  77 /  10   0  40   0
MLB  90  78  89  77 /   0  10  20   0
VRB  91  78  90  76 /  10  40  40  10
LEE  95  77  94  78 /  10   0  30   0
SFB  95  76  94  77 /  10   0  30   0
ORL  95  77  94  77 /  10   0  40   0
FPR  90  77  90  76 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock