535
FXUS62 KMLB 070513
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
113 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Mostly dry conditions continue through this weekend and into
  early next week, with rain and storm chances gradually improving
  into the middle of next week.

- Warm temperatures persist areawide, with some locations across
  the interior reaching the mid 90s late this weekend and Monday.

- A high risk of rip currents exists today; entering the water is
  not advised!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current-Tonight... Surface analysis has shown an area of high
pressure moving offshore the southeast U.S. coast, keeping onshore
flow in place locally. A few rounds of light onshore moving showers
have been observed along the Treasure coast today, but otherwise,
ridging and dry air have kept conditions dry. Afternoon temperatures
in the 80s will continue to climb a few more degrees, reaching near
90F across portions of the north interior by peak heating. Looking
towards tonight, low temperatures should remain mild along the
coast, spreading the low to mid 70s. Slightly cooler across the
interior where values will more widely range the mid 60s (rural) to
low 70s (urban).

Sunday-Monday... Mid-level ridging becomes the dominant feature
across the eastern U.S. early next week as a brief omega block sets
in place. A surface ridge axis near north Florida broadens late this
weekend as a cold front slides offshore the northeast and mid
Atlantic coast. A persistent pattern of onshore flow continues
locally. Most locations should remain dry each day with low rain
chances limited to the Treasure Coast and in vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee each afternoon. Temperatures continue a warming trend as
highs reach into the low 90s across much of the interior Sunday. By
Monday, coastal temperatures warm to range the upper 80s to low 90s
with low to mid 90s inland. The building temperature trend combined
with an increase in moisture will support heat index values in the
mid to upper 90s on Monday, perhaps nearing 100F in a few locations.
A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast through much of the I-95 and I-4
corridors on Monday with a Major HeatRisk outlined across portions
of southern Lake and western Orange counties. Residents and visitors
who are planning on spending extended periods of time outdoors are
advised to remain well hydrated and ensure breaks in the shade or an
air-conditioned building are taken frequently in order to help avoid
heat-related illness.

Tuesday-Friday... Troughing offshore the eastern U.S. continues to
push seaward into mid week, and the omega block pattern gradually
breaks down. A front approaches and passes the region Tuesday into
Wednesday with high pressure then forecast to build in its wake. The
surface ridge axis remains north of the local area prompting
moisture advection as south to southeast flow develops. Eyes remain
on the Gulf as to whether a low will develop sometime next week,
with the position of the low influencing just how much moisture is
advected across the area. Despite low confidence in exact PoPs,
forecast rain chances at least show an increasing trend through the
period with greatest chances currently forecast Thursday onward.
High temperatures hold around normal, but the additional humidity
will produce peak heat index values in the mid to upper 90s with
some values near 100F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Favorable boating conditions continue across the local waters.
Onshore flow persists with east-southeast winds increasing to around
8-12 kts each afternoon. Seas up to 4ft in the Gulf Stream through
tonight subside to become widely 2-3 ft by Monday. Mostly dry
conditions this weekend before moisture returns to the area into mid
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions generally expected to continue. Onshore flow persists
with a drier/stable airmass in place keeping rain chances largely
out of the forecast. However, can`t rule out a few onshore-moving
light showers/sprinkles producing brief MVFR conditions thru
early this morning. Will monitor for a few showers and an ISOLD
lightning storm west of KVRB-KSUA near Lake Okeechobee Sun aftn.
Chances remain too low to include in the TAFs. Light onshore
(ENE-ESE) flow increases to around 8-12 kts Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  72  89  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  87  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  88  76  89  77 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  92  72  94  74 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  87  75  88  76 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock