015
FXUS62 KMLB 292357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
757 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Greater coverage of rain and lightning storms into the weekend,
  bringing the potential for localized flooding, gusty winds, and
  frequent lightning strikes

- A moderate rip current risk continues at local beaches from Cape
  Canaveral northward this afternoon into tonight

- Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal,
  especially into the first half of next week

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...A stalled boundary will remain just north
of east central Florida through the remainder of today into the
overnight hours, with plentiful moisture present south of it
across east central Florida. Isolated showers and storms have
already developed near and north of the I-4 corridor this
afternoon thanks to persistent westerly flow and the moist
airmass, moving eastward across the area. The east coast sea
breeze has also developed based on radar and satellite imagery,
and has started to slowly progress inland as of 3 PM, with the
slow progression likely attributed to deep westerly flow. Activity
is anticipated to develop along the east coast sea breeze through
this afternoon, with outflow from storms helping to push the sea
breeze farther inland. A collision of the two sea breezes still
appears favorable based on CAM guidance, with increasing coverage
of showers and storms across the interior near the Orlando metro
and southwards towards Kissimmee Prairie expected this evening.
The 15Z XMR sounding continues to show favorable conditions for
storm development, including MUCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg, 500 mb
temperatures between -6 to -7C, DCAPE around 650 J/kg, and a PWAT
of 1.87 inches. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 50 to 55
mph, and torrential downpours remain the primary storm concerns
today. Most of east central Florida also continues to be
highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Quick rain
totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible, and could lead to
localized flooding in low-lying and urban areas with poor
drainage, as well as areas that have already seen rainfall over
the last couple of days. In addition to the primary storm hazards,
it is also worth noting that any boundary interactions that occur
either along the sea breeze collision or from other outflow
boundaries may be able to spark brief funnel clouds. A brief
tornado or waterspout also cannot be ruled out, both of which will
be monitored for closely as the afternoon progresses.

With a deep westerly wind profile, shower and storm activity is
anticipated to move eastward towards the coast through the rest of
the day, eventually pushing offshore into the late evening and
overnight hours. While mostly dry conditions are forecast through
the overnight hours across the peninsula, ongoing activity across
the local Atlantic waters and even along the immediate coast
cannot be ruled out.

Aside from shower and storm chances today, minimal cloud coverage
through this morning and into the early afternoon hours has
allowed for sufficient daytime heating, with most places across
east central Florida generally in the mid to upper 80s, with some
spots reaching the low 90s. Some additional warming through the
remainder of today will allow for temperatures to reach the upper
80s to low 90s areawide, with convection and rainfall helping to
provide some relief late this evening. Overnight, temperatures are
forecast to remain near-normal for this time of year, falling
into the low to mid 70s. Light and variable winds will return
through the overnight hours after convection moves offshore.

Saturday-Sunday (previous modified)...Deeper moisture return
gradually overspreads the area this weekend as a mid/upper trough
extends into south-central Florida. The quasi-stationary front
over north Florida is forecast to sag slowly southward toward
Volusia/Lake county and effectively stay there through Sunday. As
the 500mb trough axis centers itself over the eastern seaboard,
several pieces of energy will rotate around its base and over east
central Florida. Increased dynamical support will promote higher
coverage of showers and lightning storms, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance indicates more of a
"skinny CAPE" SKEW-T profile as PW climb near/above 2" areawide.
As a result, locally heavy rainfall is forecast both days with the
potential for minor flooding impacts, especially in areas where
soils are becoming increasingly saturated. A Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall outlines most of ECFL Saturday and all of the
area by Sunday. HREF probabilities in any given area are around
10- 20% for exceeding 2" of rainfall but as high as 40% where
repeated rounds of rain occur over successive days. In addition to
rainfall, water-loaded downdrafts could produce wind gusts up to
50-55 mph, frequent lightning will accompany organized storms, and
boundary collisions may lead to brief, isolated instances of
rotation (funnel cloud/tornado).

Temperatures over the weekend trend closer to normal, reaching
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees during the day and low to mid
70s overnight. With rain and storms in the forecast this holiday
weekend, be sure to head indoors at the first sign of
lightning/thunder. Additionally, locally heavy rain can reduce
driving visibility and lead to street flooding. Remember to turn
around if a roadway is impassable due to flooding.

With the holiday weekend, some people may be planning to head to
the beaches. Current guidance is indicating surf heights of 1 to 3
feet at local beaches along with at least a moderate risk of rip
currents. Residents and visitors alike are encouraged to monitor
the forecast and always go to beaches with lifeguards present.
Follow the advice of local beach safety officials and heed posted
beach flags.

Labor Day-Thursday (previous modified)...It will take some time
for the rainy and stormy pattern to break heading into next week.
This is due in part to a reinforced mid/upper trough over the
central/eastern CONUS through midweek. A deepening upper low over
the Upper Midwest is forecast to sweep eastward across the Great
Lakes Region Wednesday and Thursday, dragging a strong cold front
across the eastern U.S. The stationary front left over the area
this weekend will remain in place through mid week. By Thursday,
influenced by the cold front pushing southward, this front will
begin to dissipate and allow drier air to work into north-central
Florida. Until then, higher than normal rain chances are forecast
through Wednesday. Heavy rains from previous days, combined with
additional heavy rainfall, will continue to prop up the flooding
threat into next week. The St. Johns River Basin, receiving daily
rain input, may result in Astor staying in at least Action Stage
for a longer period of time. Highs trend a couple degrees cooler,
too, only reaching the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will
settle into the low/mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

An active weather pattern is forecast to continue across east
central Florida over the next several days as a stalled boundary
remains just north of the local waters, eventually sagging
southward towards the middle of next week. High rain and storm
chances persist, with primary storm threats including frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, torrential
downpours restricting visibility on the water, and locally higher
and choppier seas near the strongest storms. The highest coverage
of activity is anticipated to be in the late evening and overnight
hours as activity from the peninsula moves offshore.

Light and variable winds will turn more onshore each afternoon
through Saturday as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland, with winds becoming more northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots
Sunday through Wednesday. Seas of 1 to 3 feet are forecast through
Sunday morning, with seas building to 3 to 6 feet Monday and
Tuesday as a result of the persistent northeast winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Collision of a remnant outflow boundary and the east coast sea
breeze has occurred just south of KMLB, with a line of gusty storms
stretching to KOBE. This line will move towards the Atlantic coast,
reaching the Treasure Coast terminals between 00-01Z. MVFR and IFR
cig/vis for KVRB/KFPR/KSUA during this time. Storms shift offshore
prior to 03Z, with variable winds overnight areawide. Tomorrow,
higher coverage is anticipated, with storms developing over the
interior by 18/19Z and pushing towards the coast thru the early
evening. Thus have included TEMPO groups for all terminals excluding
KVRB south, with impacts occurring just beyond the TAF window. Low
confidence in the potential for stratus development overnight, so
opted to exclude from this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  73  87 /  40  80  50  80
MCO  75  91  74  90 /  30  80  30  80
MLB  75  89  74  88 /  50  80  40  80
VRB  73  90  73  90 /  50  80  50  80
LEE  75  88  74  87 /  30  70  30  80
SFB  75  89  74  88 /  30  80  30  80
ORL  75  90  74  89 /  30  80  30  80
FPR  72  91  72  90 /  60  80  50  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Schaper