277
FXUS62 KMLB 102018
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight into early
  Tuesday morning across most of east central Florida due to below
  normal temperatures and wind chill values below 30 degrees

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions are expected through
  Tuesday night as northerly winds increase and seas build

- Dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week with a
  gradual warming trend into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Now-Tonight...Northwesterly winds are increasing behind a strong
cold front that moved through the area earlier this morning.
Significantly drier air is also moving in, dropping dew points
into the 30s and low 40s. In many locations, high temperatures
have already been reached and will begin to fall after 6-7 PM
this evening. A deep mid level trough will continue toward the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast U.S. tonight with very efficient cold and
dry air advection rounding the base of the trough.

The forecast remains on track for a cold night across east-
central Florida, and as a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in
place (beginning at 2 AM). The advisory has been expanded this
afternoon to include coastal Indian River County, where it appears
wind chills will approach or briefly fall below 30 degrees early
Tuesday morning. Farther north and west, wind chill values through
late tonight and into Tuesday morning are expected to fall into
the mid 20s to low 30s. High-resolution guidance is hinting at the
possibility of wind gusts reaching 30-40 mph at times this evening
and overnight, perhaps dropping wind chill values a degree or two
lower than forecast. Dress appropriately, keep pets indoors, use
portable heaters properly, and protect plants.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure expands over the
southeastern U.S. Tuesday, keeping conditions cool and dry. As
mentioned, it will be a cold start with wind chill values in the
20s and 30s Tuesday morning. Temperatures alone are forecast to
reach the low to mid 30s north of I-4 (mid 30s to low 40s south).
A stiff northerly breeze continues on Tuesday, especially along
the immediate coast, before the overall pressure gradient begins
to weaken later in the afternoon. A High Surf Advisory and High
Risk of Rip Currents is in place to highlight dangerous beach
conditions and breaking waves of 4 to 7 feet. Entering the ocean
is strongly discouraged. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to
reach the mid 50s from Orlando northward, with the "warmest" spots
in the low/mid 60s along the Treasure Coast.

As winds begin to settle Tuesday night and temperatures drop into
the mid 30s (with far northern Lake/Volusia in the low 30s) under
a mostly clear sky, patchy frost development is also possible.

Wednesday-Sunday (previous)...The area of high pressure is
forecast to remain centered across the Florida peninsula mid week
through early weekend, keeping conditions mostly dry through the
extended period and rain chances near zero. North to northeast
winds are forecast through Friday, veering to out of the south to
southeast into the weekend. Wind speeds are forecast to remain
below 10 mph. Long- range guidance is hinting that the next best
chance for rain would be associated with the next cold front
passage late Sunday into Monday, but it is still a bit too early
to say that with a lot of confidence. Temperatures are forecast to
gradually warm as the high establishes itself across the area,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday and climbing
back into the 70s and low 80s through the remainder of the period.
Lows follow a similar pattern, with lows in the 40s to 50s
Wednesday night and 50s to 60s Thursday through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Recent observations from 41009 indicate winds around 15 kt with
gusts around 20 kt and seas building to around 6 ft. Over the next
several hours, northwesterly winds are forecast to increase 20-30
kt with gusts reaching gale force north of Sebastian Inlet. Across
all of the local Atlantic, Small Craft Advisories are already in
effect. Starting at 11 PM, Gale Warnings begin across the Volusia
and Brevard waters. Seas respond to the strengthening wind,
building 6 to 9 ft nearshore and 8 to 13 ft offshore.

Surface high pressure begins to expand over the southeast U.S. and
local waters Tuesday afternoon. As a result, winds begin to
slacken but remain 20-25 kt. Seas more gradually decline,
remaining 5-8 ft nearshore and 6-12 ft offshore for much of the
day. Small Craft Advisories currently run through 7 PM for all of
the local Atlantic waters, then continue for just the offshore
Brevard and all of the Treasure Coast waters through 4 AM
Wednesday.

Generally favorable boating conditions resume Wednesday and last
into the weekend (seas 2-4 ft, winds 10-12 kt or less) with dry
conditions forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR CIGs are clearing across the far south near SUA. Otherwise,
VFR through the period. Breezy/ gusty northwest winds may ease
slightly around sunset. Winds then increase again late tonight,
gradually shifting northward. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Breezy to gusty conditions will last through tonight and into the
day on Tuesday, especially along the immediate coast. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph are expected, with
occasional instances of 35 mph gusts possible. Very dry air will
continue to build over east-central Florida as high pressure becomes
established over the southeast U.S. Min RH values will remain 30-45%
overnight tonight, plummeting to 20-35% over the interior on
Tuesday. As a result, sensitive to critical fire weather
conditions are forecast areawide, particularly focused west of
I-95.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday, November 11th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 11-Nov  35 1956  59
Leesburg (LEE)      11-Nov  38 1962  58
Sanford (SFB)       11-Nov  39 1962  59
Orlando (MCO)       11-Nov  39 1932  59
Melbourne (MLB)     11-Nov  42 1962  62
Vero Beach (VRB)    11-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   11-Nov  42 1991  61

Wednesday, November 12th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 12-Nov  40 1995  59
Leesburg (LEE)      12-Nov  38 1991  58
Sanford (SFB)       12-Nov  40 1968  59
Orlando (MCO)       12-Nov  35 1913  59
Melbourne (MLB)     12-Nov  42 1968  61
Vero Beach (VRB)    12-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   12-Nov  41 1991  61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  35  56  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  36  57  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  39  61  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  40  62  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  34  56  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  56  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  37  56  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  40  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-
     552-570.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Law