330
FXUS62 KMLB 292345
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
745 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Minor coastal flooding impacts are expected to linger through
  one more high tide cycle Friday afternoon. Do not drive your
  vehicle into salt water. Follow local officials` advice to avoid
  flooded areas.

- Dangerous conditions will persist at our beaches through the
  weekend. Rough surf and numerous rip currents exist along our
  entire shoreline, and significant erosion has occurred. Stay out
  of the ocean. Mariners should reconsider Atlantic boating due
  to gusty winds and 5 to 10 ft seas.

- Onshore flow with gusts 20 to 30 mph continues through the
  weekend. There is a low chance of lightning storms capable of
  gusts to around 45 mph. The threat of locally excessive rain may
  increase from Saturday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rest of Today-Friday...The mid-upper level pattern begins to
amplify, driven by deepening troughs over the Pacific coast, and
in the western North Atlantic. Ridging builds over the central to
eastern US in response, though a lobe of vorticity caught in the
pattern will cause some disruption of the ridge structure as it
lifts from Mexico and Texas into the Central Plains, before
elongating across much of the eastern US. The building ridge
ushers weak low pressure near the Bahamas out sea, and along with
surface high pressure diving southeast from the northern
US/Canada, reinforces surface high pressure over the eastern US.
The southern flank of the strengthening high settles over Central
Florida, keeping the pressure gradient relatively tight while
gradually veering flow from northeasterly to more easterly.
Gusty/breezy conditions are forecast in the afternoons (gusts
20-25 mph, possibly up to 30 mph at times), with gentler winds
overnight. While winds and King Tides are slowly relenting, and
the highest water levels are in the rear-view mirror, we won`t
shake the coastal flooding until the weekend, and dangerous beach
conditions are likely to persist through the weekend. The Coastal
Flood Warning has been allowed to expire, but a Coastal Flood
Advisory takes its place through Friday for minor coastal flood
and beach erosion during the high tides, especially the higher
tide Friday in the late morning/early afternoon. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect today for breaking waves up to 7 ft,
and while wave heights are forecast to drop below criteria
Friday, the surf will remain rough and continue to produce life-
threatening rip currents. A Rip Current Statement remains in
effect.

Drier air filtering towards Florida around the high will still
have higher than normal moisture, knocking rain chances down but
not eliminating them. Isolated to scattered showers currently
moving onshore (which are expected to continue the next several
days) are much spottier than previous days, greatly reducing the
heavy rainfall threat. That said, decreased cloud cover has
opened the door for more effective destabilization from daytime
heating, and this morning`s soundings lack the inversions that
were capping updraft growth for many days (despite model soundings
still sporting them), providing a more favorable environment for
deep convection. Overall instability will be limited by very warm
mid-levels and frankly pathetic lapse rates. All together, can`t
rule out isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to
ground lightning. Gusts to around 45 mph due to drier air aloft,
and brief downpours will be possible with any storms and heavy
showers that manage to form. Highest chances for lightning storms,
such as they are at 20% or less, will be in the afternoons and
evenings, but isolated onshore moving heavy showers will be
possible around the clock. Temperatures seasonally warm with highs
in the L-M80s and lows in the U60s-M70s.

Halloween...Not quite the trick-or-treating weather we`d hope
for, as onshore flow keeps rain chances above normal in gusty and
humid conditions. Central Florida remains under the southern flank
of deep high pressure over the eastern US sliding towards the
coast. The relatively tight pressure gradient will produce
breezy/gusty onshore (easterly) flow in the afternoon and evening,
with gusts 25-30 mph. While still drier than earlier this week,
above normal moisture will keep the humidity higher than we`d
like, and support isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon,
evening, and overnight. There is a low risk (20% chance or less)
for isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to
ground lightning. Storms that manage to form and heavy showers
will also be capable of brief downpours, and drier air aloft could
help produce wind gusts to around 45 mph. Temperatures remain
seasonably warm with highs in the L-M80s and lows in the L-M70s,
with trick-or-treating temperatures in the U-M70s, up to around 80
along the southernmost coast.

At the beaches, surf will remain rough and dangerous with
numerous life-threatening rip currents present. Entering the water
is not advised. In the Atlantic waters, poor to hazardous boating
conditions will linger, especially in the Gulf Stream.

Sunday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The setup
appears favorable for an uptick in rain and even isolated (20%)
lightning coverage, and statistical guidance keeps rain chances to
60-80% on Sunday. The deep onshore flow combined with modest
upper jet diffluence is at least somewhat concerning for the
potential of locally heavy rain. This may lead to flooding of
poorly drained areas, especially along the coast on Sunday.

Beach conditions are likely to remain hazardous. A slight uptick
in onshore flow may be enough for us to need another High Surf
Advisory for a portion of this period. Either way, life-
threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected to persist.

Mid to late next week, onshore flow should begin to relax as high
pressure nudges over the peninsula, allowing rain chances to
decrease to 20-30%. A subtropical jet stream disturbance that
reaches the Southeast U.S. by around next Thursday and its front
may approach the area by late next Thursday or Friday (11/6),
giving us our next chance for at least scattered showers and
storms. High temps should remain warm, in the low/mid 80s.

It`s far too early to tell whether the front late next week poses
a threat for strong to severe storms. However, the overall pattern
suggests an enhanced subtropical jet developing as we head deeper
into November. This is in line with expectations from a strong El
Nino, and it is a key component to the periods of active weather
we expect to see this upcoming winter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will persist over the local
Atlantic waters of Central Florida through at least the upcoming
weekend, especially in the Gulf Stream. A weak low will move away
from the Bahamas over the next couple of days, as the southern
flank of a strong area of high pressure drifting toward the Mid-
Atlantic this weekend settles across Central Florida. This will
keep moderate to fresh onshore winds in place. Scattered to, at
times, numerous showers are forecast.

NE winds 15-20 kt through Friday, with seas 5-9 ft. Winds turn
more ENE on Saturday at 15-25 kt. Seas pick back up to 6-10 ft
this weekend. Intracoastal and inshore waterways very choppy to
rough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period in N to NE flow
below 10 knots most terminals tonight, except 10-14 knots for
some coastal terminals. ISOLD SHRA will cause brief MVFR CIG/VSBY
reductions and handling this with VCSH. On Fri, winds veer
slightly, more ENE, at 10-15 knots with some higher gusts. There
will continue to be ISOLD-SCT SHRA crossing the coast so have
inserted VCSH for most terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  81  72  81 /  30  30  10  10
MCO  72  84  72  84 /  20  20  10  20
MLB  73  83  74  83 /  30  30  30  40
VRB  73  84  74  83 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  70  83  70  83 /  20  20   0  10
SFB  72  83  72  83 /  20  20  10  20
ORL  72  84  72  83 /  20  20  10  20
FPR  73  84  74  83 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Kelly