675
FXUS62 KMLB 261840
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions persist into Sunday with
  elevated wave heights, a high risk of rip currents, and rough
  surf continuing. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of
  the weekend and into Monday along with seasonable afternoon
  temperatures.

- Rain and storm chances increase Tuesday onward as moisture
  returns to the area, with a slight trend upward in temperatures
  towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Through Tonight...A nor`easter positioned near the Mid Atlantic
has continued to gradually lift northward, with high pressure
slowly building across the southeastern US. The pressure gradient
across the Florida peninsula has slowly slackened through the day,
with north-northeast winds remaining around 10 to 15 mph,
strongest along the coast and enhanced locally by the diffuse east
coast sea breeze. Aside from some fair weather cumulus, skies are
mostly sunny with drier air helping to limit shower development.
This is anticipated to persist into the evening and overnight
hours, with no mentionable rain or storm chances in the forecast.
Afternoon temperatures remain on track to peak in the low to mid
80s, with low humidity keeping conditions mild. Tonight,
temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s, coolest across the
interior west of I-95. At the beaches, a high risk of rip
currents will persist through the remainder of today into the
overnight hours, along with breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet.
Entering the surf is not advised.

Sunday-Monday...As the nor`easter continue to lift northward and
barrel into the New England and Mid Atlantic region this weekend,
locally, surface high pressure and a dry air mass will continue to
settle across east central Florida. The pressure gradient
weakens, with light and variable winds anticipated Sunday into
Monday, though areas along the coast may become more onshore
during the afternoon hours with the development of a weak, diffuse
east coast sea breeze. Rain and storm chances are anticipated to
remain near zero each day as the drier air mass helps limit
development, with mostly sunny skies forecast through the period.
Temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable on Sunday afternoon
in the mid 80s, warming slightly into the mid to upper 80s on
Monday. Overnight temperatures remain in the 60s. Overall,
conditions look favorable and even pleasant across east central
Florida over the next couple of days.

While the weather will be favorable across the area, if heading
to the beaches, conditions won`t be quite as favorable surf-wise.
Lingering seas will produce poor to hazardous beach conditions,
with a high risk of rip currents continuing into Sunday and likely
Monday. Rough surf with breaking waves of 3 to 5 feet will
continue on Sunday, falling to 2 to 3 feet on Monday. Entering the
ocean through Monday is strongly discouraged due to the poor
conditions.

Tuesday-Friday...A broad mid-level trough shifts southward across
the southeastern US and towards the Florida peninsula mid to late
next week. At the surface, moisture slowly begins to increase as
a broad, weak disturbance lifts northeastward across Cuba, with
another broad, weak disturbance lifting north across the Gulf late
next week. This will translate to increasing rain and storm
chances locally, increasing from 20-40% on Tuesday from Orlando
southward to 30-70% Wednesday onward areawide. Onshore flow will
prevail through the extended period, becoming enhanced along the
coast as a diffuse east coast sea breeze develops and moves
inland. As mentioned, storm development will be possible with
activity, with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all
possible. Exact storm threats will become clearer as time
progresses. Activity is expected to follow a somewhat diurnal
pattern, with highest coverage in the afternoon and early evening
hours slowly diminishing into the late evening and overnight
hours. Ongoing development across the local Atlantic waters will
be possible. The persistent onshore flow combined with the
increasing moisture will help the local air mass become slightly
warmer, with temperatures anticipated to be near to slightly above
normal values for this time of year. The warmest temperatures
will primarily be focused across the interior during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Lingering poor to hazardous boating conditions tonight into early
Sunday will slowly improve as the pressure gradient continues to
weaken and winds subside. Seas of 6 to 8 feet continue through
early Sunday along with north to northeast winds around 15 knots,
and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until at least 4 AM
Sunday. Winds becoming light and variable Sunday, with seas
subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Monday onward, seas return to generally
favorable conditions with seas ranging between 2 to 4 feet through
next week. Winds are anticipated to remain below 15 knots,
becoming more onshore from Tuesday onward.

While dry conditions are anticipated to continue through Monday
thanks to a dry air mass in place, moisture begins increasing
starting on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
returning to the forecast particularly from the Cape southward.
By Wednesday, rain and storm chances increase areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR through the TAF period. N to NE winds 7-10 knots, gusting
15-18 kts at coastal terminals. Sufficient low level moisture is
producing a fair weather cu field with bases btwn 035-050 AGL.
Light offshore (N/NW) drainage flow redevelops tonight aft 03Z
with some increase in cirrus. On Sun, NE winds around 10 knots
will develop behind the sea breeze at coastal terminals aft 16Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and
is forecast to continue to rise, cresting this weekend due to an
ongoing period of northerly winds and tidal effects. River levels
are forecast to gradually fall through Minor Flood Stage through
the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  84  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  67  84  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  86  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  85  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  84  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  67  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly