714
FXUS62 KMLB 180630
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Rain chances increase today and into the weekend, with a
  passing disturbance aloft helping generate scattered to numerous
  showers and storms across the area each day.

- A few stronger storms will be possible this afternoon and
  evening, with the main threats being strong wind gusts to 40-50
  mph, frequent lightning, small hail and locally heavy downpours
  of 1-3 inches.

- Seasonable temperatures will continue across the area over the
  next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Today-Tonight...High pressure at the surface slides southward and a
little closer to the area today. This will continue to weaken the
pressure gradient with onshore winds not as breezy today. However,
northeast winds will still increase to 10-15 mph in the afternoon,
with gusts up to 20-25 mph still possible. A mid/upper level low
moves in from the east today, aiding in lift, and combining with an
increase in moisture (PW values 1.8-1.9) to help increase rain
chances today. Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms are
forecast to develop today, with PoPs ranging from 20-30% NW of I-4
to 40-60% across the remainder of east central FL.

Onshore steering winds will continue to generate isolated to
scattered onshore moving showers and storms along the coast through
early this morning. The unsettled pattern should then lead to earlier
development of showers and storms along a diffuse inland moving east
coast sea breeze from late morning into the afternoon. Cold temps
aloft (around -9 to -10C at 500mb) associated with the closed low
and lingering pockets of dry air above the surface will increase the
potential for a few strong storms this afternoon and into the
evening. Main storm threats will be strong wind gusts to 40-50 mph,
frequent lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3
inches that may lead to minor flooding. Onshore moving isolated to
scattered showers and storms are then forecast to continue into
tonight.

Highs will continue to be near normal, ranging from the mid to upper
80s along the coast to upper 80s/around 90 degrees inland. Lows
tonight will be in the 70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Mid/upper level low aloft will continue to slowly
progress westward through the weekend moving into the eastern Gulf
on Sunday. This feature and deeper moisture (PW 1.9-2.0") will
continue to keep the weather pattern unsettled with near to above
normal rain chances across the area. A continued low level onshore
flow will keep the potential for isolated to scattered onshore
moving showers/storms along the coast each morning. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are then forecast to develop with the
inland moving sea breeze through the late morning and afternoon each
day. Some stronger storms will continue to be possible each
afternoon and evening, with frequent lightning, strong wind gusts,
and locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" continuing to be the main
threats. Temperatures remain near seasonable values, with highs in
the mid/upper 80s at the coast and upper 80s/low 90s inland.
Overnight lows continue in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Low aloft over the eastern Gulf gradually weakens
into next week and lifts northeast as it is absorbed by a trough
traversing eastward from the central to eastern United States.
Plenty of moisture will remain across the area to keep shower and
storms chances near to above normal into next week, especially as a
front is forecast to push southward into the southeast U.S. by the
middle of next week. This will continue daily scattered to numerous
showers and storms across the area each afternoon/evening with the
threat of a few strong storms continuing. Temperatures may warm ever
so slightly into next week, but highs still look to remain close to
normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Today-Tuesday...High pressure settles southward closer to the area
today, with pressure gradient weakening and allowing for more
favorable boating conditions. Winds remain predominately onshore
through at least the weekend, and then may become more variable into
early next week. However, wind speeds are forecast to remain mostly
below 15 knots. Seas will range from 3-5 feet today and then fall to
2-3 feet into the weekend through early next week. Main hazard to
boaters will be rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms
that will continue to develop over the waters through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

SCT SHRA continue to push westward from the Atlc, crossing the
coast and pushing well inland before dissipating. Have maintained
VCSH at most terminals though VRB-SUA are in a temporary reprieve
but expect additional SHRA to develop and approach those southern
terminals later tonight/early Fri. Light north wind over the
interior overnight will veer NE Fri morning and increase 10-14
knots gusting to 20 knots by afternoon. Do not have any TEMPO
groups for MCO as pops are below 40%. Higher Pops to the south
will support TEMPO TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  88  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  73  90  73 /  40  20  50  10
MLB  87  76  87  75 /  50  30  50  30
VRB  87  73  87  72 /  50  30  60  30
LEE  90  73  90  73 /  20  10  40  10
SFB  88  73  88  73 /  40  20  40  10
ORL  89  73  89  74 /  30  20  50  10
FPR  87  73  87  72 /  50  30  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Kelly