637
FXUS62 KMLB 152341
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Heat will remain a concern across east central Florida over the
  next several days as afternoon highs near records in some spots
  across the interior and peak heat indices near or exceed Heat
  Advisory criteria.

- Below normal rain and storm chances are forecast to persist
  into early next week due to drier air aloft from Saharan dust.
  Any storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning
  strikes and strong, gusty winds.

- Increasing moisture Tuesday onward will result in a return of
  near-normal rain and storm chances across east central Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Current-Tonight... Scattered showers and storms which developed
across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast are spreading into
portions of Brevard and Osceola counties this afternoon. Despite
slightly drier air further north, light southerly steering flow
should continue to shift isolated to scattered coverage towards
the Orlando Metro into the evening. The presence of dry air (DCAPE
~800-1,000 J/kg) and winds aloft (40kts @ 32,000 ft) will allow
for a few stronger storms capable of downburst wind gusts 40-55
mph and frequent lightning. Quick rainfall accumulations of 2-3"
will also be possible in stronger storms. Ahead of showers and
storms, conditions remain hot and humid as temperatures climb
through the 90s, and a Heat Advisory continues through 8 PM. Dry
conditions are forecast overnight with low temperatures mostly in
the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday... A mid to upper level ridge holds over the southern U.S.
while surface high pressure extends over the Florida peninsula. A
layer of dry air modeled above 700mb will keep rain chances well
below normal with low rain chances (~20%) mostly limited to areas
from Brevard and Osceola counties northward. With little relief from
afternoon showers and storms, expect hot conditions and above normal
temperatures to continue. Highs are forecast mostly in the mid to
upper 90s across the interior while the sea breeze may be able to
hold some locations along the immediate coast in the low 90s.
Despite some mixing down of dry air aloft, peak heat index values
should top out near to above Heat Advisory criteria (108F) once
again. Continue to practice heat safety and stay hydrated!

Monday-Friday... High pressure broadens aloft into mid week as a
trough digs across Canada and into the northern U.S. Higher moisture
gradually slides southward through the period as a surface boundary
sinks into the southeast U.S. Isolated to scattered rain chances (20-
50%) build southward through portions of Brevard and Osceola on
Monday, with a seasonal pattern of afternoon and evening storms (~40-
60%) forecast to return areawide by mid to late week. Outside of
showers and storms, above normal temperatures should persist. While
still abnormally hot, the greatest heat impacts may begin to slowly
subside late week as troughing begins to dig through the central and
eastern U.S.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure maintains control with favorable boating conditions
forecast into next week. Light offshore winds shift south to
southeast each afternoon and evening as the sea breeze develops,
mostly remaining 12 kts or less. Seas of 1-2 ft persist, building up
to 3 ft across portions of the offshore waters Monday and Tuesday.
Drier air should limit shower and storm chances Sunday with coverage
of offshore moving showers and storms then gradually rebuilding each
day into mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Afternoon showers and storms have diminished and the remainder of
the night should remain dry, with VFR conditions forecast.
Boundary collisions are currently occurring near KLEE, which may
lead to a stray shower or two this evening, but not seeing enough
cloud development to warrant the addition of VCSH to start at this
site. Will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or two
though. Below normal rain chances are forecast tomorrow, with only
isolated showers and storms forecast into the afternoon/early
evening, mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast
(rain chances around 20%). Have limited mention in the TAFs to
VCTS for sites north of KVRB, starting around 18Z at the coast as
sea breeze forms and 20Z inland. Convection should then wind down
and diminish by or soon after 00Z.

Winds will be light and variable into tonight, and will pick up
only slightly out of the W/SW around 5-7 knots by late tomorrow
morning. The east coast sea breeze will then switch winds out of
the E/SE, increasing to 8-10 knots at the coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites this weekend:

Site          Aug 15       Aug 16
Daytona     97  (2023)   97  (2023)
Leesburg    96  (1984)   96  (2011)
Sanford     97  (1999)   97  (2023)
Orlando     98  (1938)   101 (1918)
Melbourne   98  (1963)   96  (2022)
Vero Beach  95  (1993)   96  (2022)
Fort Pierce 97  (1929)   97  (1948)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  60
MCO  78  97  78  96 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  78  94  78  95 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  76  93  77  95 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  79  96  78  94 /  10  10  10  50
SFB  78  96  78  95 /  10  20  10  50
ORL  79  96  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  77  94  77  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich