091
FXUS62 KMLB 010704
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically
  enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. A
  low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in
  areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms.

- Increasing (breezy/gusty) onshore flow and a building swell
  will lead to a HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents near
  Cape Canaveral northward. A Moderate risk for dangerous rip
  currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the
  Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate
  further as well, especially from Cape Canaveral northward.

- Marine conditions have deteriorated over the local Volusia
  coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient
  with northeast winds increasing to near 20 knots with frequent
  higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the
  Volusia waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Current...A weak area of low pressure has been observed just off
of north Brevard County early this morning along a weak frontal
boundary strewn across central FL. This feature was creating a
tight pressure gradient across Volusia County with breezy/gusty
NERLY winds. As the low moves onto the coast today the gusty
onshore conditions are expected to continue. Will monitor in the
event a Wind Advisory is necessary here.

Today-Tonight...The aforementioned boundary will slowly sag
southward through the period. Additional waves developing along
this feature may enhance locally a continued heavy rainfall threat
for some. Storm steering flow remains light, but suspect erratic
movement will occur at times, esp surrounding the counter-
clockwise circulation of the weak low. Relatively deep moisture
(PWATs 1.80-2.00") continues across the area and ECFL remains
outlooked by the WPC with a low-end Marginal Threat for Excessive
Rainfall (locally). This remains especially true for areas that
have already seen repeated rounds recently and for any future
training echoes - should any develop. While confidence remains
low, will also need to monitor for potential locally heavy
rainfall potential along the coast again tonight - esp Cape
southward.

The pressure gradient remains rather tight near Melbourne northward
today. As such, may see periods of breezy/gusty NE winds - highest
along the coast, esp Volusia County. Not sold on a Windy Advisory
(WI.Y) here just yet, but it bears watching as wind speeds are
forecast to approach 20 mph this afternoon/early evening and we
could see frequent gusts to 25-30 mph along the Volusia coast. A
building swell will increase the rip current risk to HIGH today for
Volusia/north Brevard counties with numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents expected, as well as for increasing
ROUGH Surf. If you must enter the water today, swim near a life-
guarded beach and never swim alone! A Moderate risk for dangerous
rip currents will exist for south Brevard and the Treasure Coast
beaches.

Much like previous days, evolution in convection remains uncertain
with extensive cloud cover. We continue to carry slightly higher
than normal rain chances (50-70pct).

Average to slightly below normal temperatures continue today due to
the clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon maxes will be in the M-
U80s to around 90F. Muggy conditions continue overnight, with mins
in the L-M70s and perhaps a few U70s along the coast.

Tue-Sun...An onshore wind component will exist thru mid-week and the
flow aloft remains mainly zonal as stronger shortwave energy stays
northward, though we will see occasional impulses traverse the
central peninsula embedded in the flow, which will aid to enhance
diurnal convection. Deep moisture lingers into mid-week as PoP
chances continue above normal (50-70pct) into Thu. Some drier air
pushing into the area will reduce these numbers gradually Fri-
Sun, esp our northern zones. Seasonally warm conditions return to
the area during the extended, as peak heat indices north of 100F
may also return Fri-Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary across the local waters
will continue to sag southward thru the period. A weak associated
low pressure area just off the north Brevard coast is creating a
rather tight pressure gradient across the Volusia waters. Have
hoisted thru 02Z tonight a Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia
waters (0-60nm). Here, northeast winds near 20 kts with occasional
gusts to Gale Force have been observed and may continue. Seas
will also build to 5-7 ft. Small Craft should Exercise Caution
across the Brevard waters today as seas build 4-6 ft (offshore)
and 3-5 ft near shore. Winds may also approach 15-20 kts with
higher gusts across the near shore (afternoon) and offshore
Brevard waters. Presently for the Treasure Coast waters winds will
increase to 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. A higher than normal
coverage of showers and lightning storms will continue for the
local waters through tonight.

Tue-Fri...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid-week as deep
moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above normal chances
of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine conditions
(winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A meso low evident on the KMLB radar just northeast of KTIX should
shift south thru today along with a frontal boundary that will sag
southward and reach the srn Treasure Coast terminals this aftn
shifting winds to the NE. A tighter pressure gradient on the
backside of the low and frontal boundary will produce gusty winds
at KDAB through the period and become gusty at times for cstl
terminals by this aftn. Local MVFR CIGs mainly north of a KISM-
KTIX line thru 13z this morning, otherwise mainly VFR outside of
passing SHRA/TSRA today. By tonight...all terminals will be
behind the front with low shower chances mainly confined to
coastal terminals aft 02z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  75  86  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  75  88  74 /  70  20  70  30
MLB  87  77  88  75 /  70  40  70  40
VRB  89  75  89  74 /  70  40  70  50
LEE  86  74  88  74 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  86  75  88  75 /  70  30  60  30
ORL  86  75  88  75 /  70  20  70  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  40  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Volkmer