135
FXUS62 KMLB 071017
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
617 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Dry conditions persist across east central Florida through at
  least Monday, with a slow increase in moisture leading to
  greater rain and storm chances from Tuesday onward.

- Temperatures continue to warm into the low to mid 90s across
  the interior through Monday, trending closer to normal values
  into the middle of this week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central
  Florida beaches; if heading to the beach, be sure to swim near
  a lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today-Tonight...Two mid-level troughs, one sliding across the New
England area and the other lifting northeastward towards the
central US, will flank either side of an elongated mid-level
ridge, creating a short-lived omega block across the central and
eastern US. This omega block will help keep the mid-level ridge in
place across the Florida peninsula and Gulf, with the surface
high pressure remaining across the western Atlantic. The surface
ridge axis will extend across northern Florida, resulting in
continued onshore flow across east central Florida. While dry air
remains in place across the area and will keep rain chances mostly
near-zero, some isolated onshore- moving showers cannot be ruled
out, especially south of Cape Canaveral. The best chances (20%)
for showers today will be across the Treasure Coast and around
Lake Okeechobee through this morning. Any showers that do develop
will be low-topped, with dry air from 850mb and aloft working to
suppress development. Showers will diminish as they move inland,
with rain chances trending below 10% through the afternoon hours.

The surface high and ridging aloft will favor near to slightly
above normal temperatures across east central Florida. Along the
coast, the onshore flow will keep highs generally in the mid 80s
whereas across the interior, temperatures are forecast to climb
into the low to mid 90s. Tonight, lows are forecast to fall only
into the low to mid 70s, with some rural locations potentially
falling into the upper 60s.

Monday-Tuesday...The mid-level omega block begins to shift
eastward on Monday, weakening into Tuesday. The ridge from the
omega block will slide southward along the east coast of the US,
with a lobe of energy from the westernmost trough sliding
southward along with the ridge. With the mid-level ridging
remaining in place across the Florida peninsula on Monday,
conditions will continue to remain mostly dry, with onshore flow
persisting. By Tuesday, the shift in the mid-level pattern will
lead to some slight weakening of the surface high pressure,
allowing moisture to lift northward from south Florida. PWATs are
forecast to recover into the 1.5 to 1.9" range, though there does
remain discrepancies in just how much moisture will be present
across the local area. Overall, rain chances are forecast to
increase to around 20% across east central Florida on Tuesday,
especially south of the Orlando metro and Cape. Isolated storms
cannot be ruled out with activity, but confidence in this remains
low given the uncertainty relative to the amount of moisture
return.

Temperatures will remain warm through early this week, with highs
on Monday ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s, warmest across
the interior. Some locations across Lake and western Orange
counties will be in a Major HeatRisk, so residents and visitors
will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks inside an
air-conditioned building if outdoors for extended periods of time.
By Tuesday, building cloud coverage from the increasing moisture
will limit daytime heating, leading to highs being a couple
degrees "cooler" than prior days, with near-normal highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight temperatures are forecast to
remain generally near-normal in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Into the middle of this week, mid-level
ridging is forecast to develop across the western Atlantic,
corresponding to a broad area of high pressure at the surface
across the Atlantic waters. The high is forecast to gradually
shift southward through the remainder of this week, with onshore
winds slowly becoming more southeasterly and eventually south to
southwesterly late this week. While there remains discrepancies
between guidance on the overall set-up across east central
Florida and whether a low will develop in the Gulf or not, there
is a decent signal relative to increasing moisture across the
area, with the developing southerly component to the flow
assisting in moisture advection northward across the Florida
peninsula. This will translate to higher rain and storm chances
(40-70%) each afternoon, with trends suggesting development will
be driven by diurnal heating and the subsequent sea breeze
collisions. Activity is forecast to decrease each evening and
through the overnight hours, with low to medium chances for
ongoing activity across the local Atlantic waters overnight.
Temperatures are anticipated to remain near-normal values for
this time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in
place. Easterly winds between 10 to 15 knots are forecast through
the period, with winds gradually becoming more southeasterly on
Thursday and southerly on Friday. Seas are anticipated to remain
between 2 to 4 feet for the foreseeable future.

Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Monday, though
occasional light showers cannot be ruled out at times across the
local waters. By Tuesday and through the remainder of the forecast
period, moisture increases across the local waters, allowing for
greater rain and storm chances (30-60%).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 617 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions generally expected to continue. Onshore flow persists
with a drier/stable airmass in place keeping rain chances largely
out of the forecast. However, can`t rule out a few onshore-moving
light showers/sprinkles producing brief MVFR conditions thru early
this morning. Will monitor for a few showers and an ISOLD lightning
storm west of KVRB-KSUA near Lake Okeechobee this afternoon. Light
onshore (ENE- ESE) flow increases to around 8-13 kts Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  72  89  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  87  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  88  76  89  77 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  92  72  94  74 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  92  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  87  75  88  76 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock