775
FXUS62 KMLB 162340
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Heat concerns persist across east central Florida over the next
  couple of days thanks to above-normal afternoon highs and peak
  heat indices nearing or reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

- Increasing moisture will promote a more seasonable pattern of
  scattered showers and storms areawide from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicates a sharp moisture
gradient across central Florida this afternoon with values ranging
2.0-2.1" from Cape Canaveral and Orlando northward and as low as
1.5" further south through Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Isolated showers have developed within the deepest moisture across
north-cental Florida as the east and west coast sea breezes move
inland. Expect more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
near and north of a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee through the
afternoon and evening, driven by increased surface heating and a few
boundary interactions. A few strong storms which may develop will be
capable of wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and locally
heavy rainfall. Otherwise, hot conditions continue with highs on
track to reach the mid to upper 90s across the interior, and a Heat
Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for peak heat index
values of 108-112F. Isolated convection along the sea breeze
collision may linger into the evening, but dry conditions are
expected overnight. Low temperatures should mostly range the mid
to upper 70s.

Monday... Hot conditions continue as ridging holds mostly stagnant
aloft. At the surface, a ridge axis shifts south of the area as a
weak frontal boundary sinks into the southeast U.S. This will favor
light offshore flow, turning southeast as a delayed sea breeze
develops in the afternoon. Above normal temperatures persist with
highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat index values widely
ranging 106-110F will likely prompt the need for another Heat
Advisory. Moisture advecting southward through the Orlando Metro
should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
(20-45%), providing some relief from the heat late in the day. A few
strong storms which develop will be capable of isolated wind gusts
35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and torrential downpours. Drier air to
the south should limit rain chances to less than 20% across much of
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure in the mid levels gradually
broadens through late week as troughing digs across the midwest
and into the eastern U.S. The surface ridge axis remains mostly
south of the area, perhaps inching northward towards Lake
Okeechobee late in the period. Offshore flow should maintain hot
conditions, especially through Wednesday, as highs continue in the
mid 90s across the interior with localized areas reaching the
upper 90s. Temperatures then show a decreasing trend, finally
returning closer to normal late week. Moisture continues to advect
southward into Tuesday, prompting a more seasonal pattern of
scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%) areawide each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A surface ridge axis slides south of the local waters on Monday.
This will lead to a period of prevailing light offshore flow,
shifting south to southeast late each day as the sea breeze
develops. Seas of 1-2 ft build up to 3 ft offshore Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms will be possible
north of the Cape on Monday, while remaining mostly dry further
south. Moisture continues to spread southward on Tuesday prompting
higher coverage (40-60%) of offshore moving storms areawide
through late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are largely forecast to continue tonight through
tomorrow. A storm has developed near KDAB and the sea breeze
collision near the I-4 corridor may still lead to isolated
shower/storm development this evening. Have therefore continued
VCTS for KMCO/KISM/KSFB/KDAB through 01Z, which may have to be
extended depending on convective trends this evening. Will also
monitor for any brief TEMPO groups for IFR/MVFR impacts from this
activity. Otherwise, any convection should diminish and end
through late evening, with dry conditions overnight through Monday
morning. Greatest potential for showers and storms into tomorrow
afternoon/evening will be near to north of KMCO-KTIX (rain chances
20-50%). For now have only included VCTS in the TAFs starting
around 19-20Z for all sites north of KMLB. From KMLB south, dry
conditions are forecast to continue through Monday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable tonight, picking up out of the
west around 6-8 knots by late Monday morning. Sea breeze may
struggle to develop near/north of KTIX Monday, but should form
farther south and push inland into the afternoon, with winds
becoming E/SE around 8-10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site          Aug 16     Aug 17
Daytona     97  (2023)  96  (1990)
Leesburg    96  (2011)  98  (2005)
Sanford     97  (2023)  97  (2005)
Orlando     101 (1918)  99  (1929)
Melbourne   96  (2022)  97  (2022)
Vero Beach  96  (2022)  98  (2022)
Fort Pierce 97  (1948)  97  (2022)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  78  94 /  20  50  10  60
MCO  78  97  78  96 /  30  20  20  60
MLB  78  95  78  95 /   0  10  20  60
VRB  76  95  76  94 /   0  10  20  50
LEE  78  95  79  95 /  20  30  20  60
SFB  78  95  79  95 /  30  40  20  60
ORL  79  96  80  95 /  30  20  20  60
FPR  76  95  77  94 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich