835
FXUS62 KMLB 122330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
730 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions continue even as surf starts to
  appear less threatening. Entering the ocean is strongly
  discouraged!

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions improve through the evening
  and overnight, but could remain unfavorable through the early
  week, due to lingering choppy seas. Conditions are forecast to
  deteriorate again mid-week.

- Mostly dry weather is forecast across east central Florida
  through this week along with near normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The Coastal Flood Advisory has been cancelled. The overnight high
tide will be the lower of the two high tides in the cycle and the
Monday afternoon high tide is forecast to remain below advisory
criteria. However, a High Risk of rip currents and rough surf
remains in effect through at least Monday night. Residents and
visitors should continue to stay out of the surf, despite the
seemingly improved conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Mostly quiet conditions across East
Central Florida (nice to finally be able to say that). The one
caveat is elevated seas and high astronomical tides continue to
batter the coast, producing numerous life-threatening rip
currents, rough/high surf, and coastal flooding leading to minor
to moderate beach erosion during the high tides, especially along
the Volusia beaches which have been hit hardest and are closed to
the public (flying double red flags) due to these hazards and
debris in the water. We are approaching the time when many surf
related drownings occur, when the waters begins to look less
threatening but these hazards persist. Residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to avoid the beaches and in particular, avoid
entering the ocean.

Otherwise, the much drier air has finally arrived, bringing a
feeling of fall to the area with clear to mostly clear skies,
lower humidity, and early morning temperatures in the 60s (a few
of the normally cooler northern spots even made it down to the
U50s). A few showers well offshore of the Treasure Coast on
convergence lines in higher moisture closer to the front, which
has pushed well south into the Straits of Florida and The Bahamas,
kept the radar in precip mode this morning, and can`t rule out a
few more showers here as well as the far southern coast, but
that`s it. Afternoon highs topping out in the L-M80s with
northwest winds 5-10 mph becoming light overnight. Temperatures
cool into the M70s this evening, then drop back into the 60s early
in the morning.

Monday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The coastal low
off the Carolinas is forecast to become broader into Monday, with
moisture wrapping back around on the western side of the low and
potentially pushing towards Florida on Monday. This could lead to
some isolated showers across the northern counties and Atlantic
waters, but confidence in this still remains too low to include
within the forecast. By Tuesday, the low lifts farther northeast,
with mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder of the
week as a weak reinforcing front moves across the peninsula
midweek, and a surface high settles across the eastern US late
week. Some moisture from the Mid-Atlantic low pressure system
could sweep in towards Florida behind the front, and very low (20%
or less) rain chances have crept back into the forecast for the
latter half of the week. North to northeast winds prevail through
Thursday, becoming more easterly Friday and into the weekend.
Afternoon highs and overnight lows remain near normal through the
extended period, in the low 80s and 60s respectively.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through at
least Monday, and there is high confidence this threat will
persist through much of the week. Entering the ocean, which may
look unthreatening, is strongly discouraged when there is a high
risk of rip currents. Residents and visitors planning to head to
the beaches should continue to monitor the forecast for potential
extensions in the high rip current risk. Always heed the advice of
local beach safety officials.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Across the Central Florida Atlantic
waters, winds have become generally favorable for boating from the
NW-N at 10-15 kts, but seas remain poor to hazardous with the
Ponce Inlet and Fort Pierce Inlet buoys reporting seas to 6 ft and
the buoy 20 NM off Port Canaveral reporting 8 ft seas, indicating
higher seas area likely further into the Gulf Stream. Seas will
continue to subside, allowing Small Craft Advisories to fall off
through the evening and overnight. However, small craft should
continue to exercise caution for choppy seas 4-6 ft after the
advisories expire. A few showers are possible across the Treasure
Coast waters and southernmost coast, but otherwise dry conditions.

Monday-Thursday...Improvement in boating conditions across the
local Atlantic waters will unfortunately be short-lived. High
pressure builds over the southeast Monday and Tuesday as seas
settle to 4-6 ft with NW-NNE winds 10-15 kts. Midweek, a
reinforcing cold front pushes quickly through Florida followed by
an and area of high pressure moving into the eastern U.S. late
week While winds are forecast to remain generally favorable from
the N-NE at 10-15 kts, periodically up to 15-20 kts, swell from
the Mid- Atlantic low pressure system is forecast to reach the
area by Wednesday, causing seas to build to 5-8 ft again the
second half of the week. Isolated showers possible Monday and the
second half of the week, but otherwise dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. Generally light and variable winds
overnight will become N/NNE through the morning Monday, increasing
to around 8-10 kts in the afternoon. Then, light and variable
winds look to prevail once again Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  81  65  82 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  64  85  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  82  68  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  65  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  84  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  64  83  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy