616
FXUS62 KMLB 011917
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Breezy to gusty through tonight, especially along the coast north
of Cape Canaveral; a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents and
rough surf continue for Volusia and north Brevard beaches

- Poor to hazardous marine conditions forecast through late tonight,
mainly from Cape Canaveral northward

- Elevated rain chances through Thursday, focused farther south by
  mid to late week; marginal risk of excessive rainfall leading to
  localized flooding

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Now-Tonight...A broad surface low can be seen on radar/satellite,
rotating southward along the Space and Treasure Coasts this
afternoon. This feature formed along a very slow moving frontal
boundary, both of which are forecast to travel southward over the
next 24-36 hours, effectively stalling across south Florida. Until
then, breezy to gusty northeast winds, in response to a tightened
pressure gradient around the surface low, will persist from
Orlando/Titusville northward. The highest gusts are expected along
the Volusia and northern Brevard coastline (i.e. Daytona Beach
gusted to 36 mph just after 2 PM). Gusty conditions and building
seas are making for rough surf and a HIGH risk of life-
threatening rip currents at area beaches. It is advised to stay
out of the surf through the remainder of today. South of the Cape,
a moderate risk of rip currents is present.

Lightning has been limited today, mainly to the Atlantic waters.
Scattered showers have been persistent near and north of Orlando to
Cape Canaveral but lower rain rates have kept rain totals largely
under 0.75". Despite PW around 2", weaker lapse rates are preventing
deep convective growth (evidenced by 15z XMR sounding). Thus,
expect more of the same as showers rotate around the low pressure
center through the evening. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out
through mid evening, but occurrences will be far and few between.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will settle back into the 70s
overnight, as isolated showers continue to move onshore and
largely dissipate as they push farther inland. A marginal risk for
excessive rainfall continues, so any moderate to briefly heavy
bands of rain that persist over one location could produce
localized flooding.

Tuesday-Wednesday...With the surface front and attendant low near or
just south of the area by midweek, higher rain chances will
gradually transition southward. Still, sufficient moisture will
remain draped over central Florida (including to the north of the
front) with onshore flow persisting. Tuesday is anticipated to
bring breezy conditions to the coast once again (not as gusty as
today), accompanied by onshore moving showers and a few lightning
storms. Surface flow weakens as the pressure gradient unwinds a
bit Wednesday, but onshore-moving showers remain in the forecast.
A higher concentration of moisture and 500mb energy will traverse
south-central Florida, so areas from Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast southward may be more favored for locally heavy
rainfall by midweek. Temperatures inch upward both days, reaching
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Thursday-Sunday...Thursday brings one last day of higher-than-normal
rain chances, mainly across the southern third of the area, as mid
level troughing lingers overhead. Weak 500mb riding returns late
week into the weekend as comparably drier air moves over locations
along/north of Interstate 4. Models try to reinvigorate the stalled
boundary over south Florida and drift it north toward the Treasure
Coast by Friday and Saturday. We will have to keep an eye on how
this plays out, as it could locally boost rain chances south of
Orlando this weekend. With lower rain chances forecast across the
northern half of the area, maximum daytime temperatures climb to
slightly above normal (low 90s) with peak heat indices reaching the
low 100s Friday-Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Now-Tonight...A weak front and surface low will continue to drift
south of the local waters tonight into Tuesday. Gusty winds,
approaching Gale Force at times over the Volusia waters, will begin
to slacken after midnight. The Small Craft Advisory has been
extended until 4 AM for the Volusia waters, associated with Small
Craft Exercise Caution for the Brevard waters. Seas up to 5-8 ft are
expected north of Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and a few
lightning storms remain in the forecast and are likely to persist
overnight.

Tuesday-Friday (previous)...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid-
week as deep moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above
normal chances of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine
conditions (winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A meso low as seen on KMLB radar near KMLB should continue to
shift slowly southward through the day. A frontal boundary will
also sag southward through the day, reaching the southern Treasure
Coast terminals later this afternoon, which will shift the winds
NE. The pressure gradient has tightened over the area behind the
low pressure system, increasing winds to 10-15KT with gusts 20-25
KT. MVFR CIGs from low stratus clouds as well as passing
SHRA/TSRA are ongoing, and will continue through the afternoon. By
tonight, the low/frontal boundary will be south of the local area.
Mostly dry conditions are expected across inland terminals, with
isolated showers still remaining possible along the coast,
although coverage is not high enough at this time to include VC
wording overnight. Have introduced VCSH starting at 12Z along the
coast and 16Z across the inland terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  75  87 /  50  60  20  50
MCO  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  10  60
MLB  77  88  76  88 /  40  70  30  60
VRB  75  89  75  90 /  40  70  40  70
LEE  74  88  74  89 /  20  50  10  50
SFB  75  88  74  88 /  40  60  20  60
ORL  75  88  74  89 /  30  60  10  60
FPR  74  90  74  90 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson