086
FXUS62 KMLB 040537
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1237 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- North winds will turn Northeast on Tuesday, maintaining poor to
  hazardous beach and boating conditions

- Gradual warming trend this week with a warm weekend. Then a
  stronger cold front is forecast to cool things down considerably
  early next week.

- Dry forecast through Wednesday. Shower chances increase south of
  Orlando Fri, especially Treasure coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Tonight...Chilly night tonight across the north interior with lows
in the lower 50s. In fact, this should be the coolest night of the
week. Veering winds out of the N/NE to NE, though, will keep
coastal sections milder in the low to mid 60s. There will also be
some marine stratocumulus pushing onshore south of the Cape.

Tue-Wed...High pressure reaches the Carolina coast Tue then
continues seaward Wed with its trailing ridge axis settling
southward toward the area. In response, winds veer NE and remain
breezy/gusty along the coast. Winds become East Wed and decrease
as pressure gradient weakens. Fair weather cumulus will pancake
beneath subsidence inversion near 850mb but no rain is forecast.
Max temps close to seasonable for early Nov ranging from the upper
70s Volusia coast to the lower 80s elsewhere.

At the beaches, a high risk of rip currents develops Tuesday, so
entering the water will be strongly discouraged.

Thu-Mon...12Z GFS/ECMWF show remnants of an upper low meandering
over the southern Gulf will get kicked eastward across south
FL/Straits as upper troughing redevelops over the central U.S.
Moisture increases from south to north as this feature passes by
so the next best chance for showers (20%) will be across southern
sections Thu night/Fri. Wind flow develops a southerly component
Fri then offshore (west) component this weekend which will send
max temps above normal reaching the mid 80s most areas. Have kept
a silent 10 PoP for Sunday but these may be increased to show
isolated to scattered showers ahead of a stronger cold front. This
front is forecast to sweep cleanly through the area Sun night/
early Mon and should bring noticeably cooler temperatures early
next week along with gusty NW-N winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 805 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Winds and seas have decreased northward, thus have ended the Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) for the Volusia waters and near shore Brevard
waters. Going with Cautionary Statements for offshore Volusia and
near shore Brevard as seas still building to 4-6 ft and winds
15-20 kts across these legs. The near shore Volusia marine leg
shows observations of 10-15 kt northerly winds and seas building
3-5 ft. Keep the SCA for offshore marine legs from the Cape
southward, and near shore Treasure Coast waters as northerly winds
near 20 kts and gusty here with seas 5-7 ft.

Previous...Issued at 240 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure over the deep South will move east and reach the
Carolina coast Tuesday then continue out to sea Wednesday. A weak
cold front is forecast to stall over or just north of the waters
Thursday, followed by another weak front losing momentum as it
approaches Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local Atlc waters
behind a cold front that passed by this morning. The gusty north
winds this afternoon and evening will veer NE by Tue with speeds
of 15-20 knots. Seas will peak at 7 FT in the Gulf stream
tonight/Tue. Conditions improve Wed as winds become easterly and
pressure gradient weakens allowing winds to decrease near 10 knots
north and 10-15 knots south. NE-ENE flow Thu veers SE Fri with
light offshore Sat, turning onshore in a 10 kt sea breeze bear the
coast. Seas are forecast to subside 3-5 ft Wed, 2-4 ft Thu and 2-3
ft Fri-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Mainly VFR thru the period with NE winds increasing after 15z,
10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt (esp. at coastal sites). Marine
stratocu around 030-040 are forecast to push onshore, especially
MLB southward. Occasional MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out as a
result. Wind speeds decrease to 10 kt or less after 00z Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  63  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  63  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  68  80  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  79  67  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  61  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  79  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  79  67  81  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper