781
FXUS62 KMLB 011924
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Gradually warmer into the weekend, with daytime temperatures
  reaching the mid 70s on Saturday.

- Breezy on Saturday, before a cold front arrives Saturday night
  into Sunday, bringing the chance of showers.

- Favorable boating conditions forecast into late week, but
  conditions then deteriorate into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Tonight-Friday...High pressure centered across the central Gulf
shifts eastward and across Florida into tomorrow, with dry
conditions persisting. W/NW winds 10-15 mph this afternoon will
diminish, becoming light and variable after sunset. Lighter winds
combined with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies from increasing
cirrus clouds will again lead to favorable radiational cooling
conditions tonight. Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, and
while lows tonight will still be several degrees below normal, they
will not be as cold as they were this morning. Min temps will mostly
be in the low to mid 40s, but normally colder locations NW of I-4
and south of Orlando eastward toward Vero Beach and Fort Pierce may
see temps briefly dip down into the upper 30s toward daybreak
Friday. Can`t completely rule out some patchy frost development in
these areas, but coverage looks to be fairly limited. Patchy fog
may also be possible late tonight into early Friday, but HREF
guidance keeps overall probabilities of fog formation pretty low
(at or below 20%). After sunrise, temperatures will quickly
climb, with afternoon highs closer to normal values in the low
70s. Lows into Friday night will continue the warming trend,
ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s.

Saturday-Sunday...Low pressure moving east-northeast through the
Southeast U.S. Saturday will eventually drag a weak cold front
through the area Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front
leading to rising rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as
front approaches Florida and moves through the region. Dry
conditions are forecast to prevail through much of the day Saturday,
with PoPs then increasing to 40-60% from Osceola/Brevard counties
northward and 20-30% across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast
Saturday night. Isolated to scattered showers will spread across the
area and weaken as front shifts south. Any instability looks to
remain very weak over land, but may see a few storms across the
waters ahead of and with the frontal passage where more CAPE will be
present. Lingering rain chances up to 20-30 percent then persist
toward the coast from the Cape southward inland toward Okeechobee
County Sunday morning before drier air continues to move in
through Sunday afternoon.

Highs climb into the mid 70s Saturday and then fall slightly into
the upper 60s to low 70s near to north of Orlando Sunday as front
begins to move through. Farther south, max temps are still forecast
to reach the mid to upper 70s depending on exact timing of the
passage of the front. Lows drop from the mid 50s to low 60s Saturday
night to low to mid 50s behind the front into Sunday night.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure is
forecast to develop early next week near the Carolinas, then drift
offshore off of the Southeast US coast, where it looks to linger
through at least mid-week. Onshore or southeast flow is expected
through Thursday, remaining around 10 mph or less. Temperatures will
continue to climb, even becoming slightly above normal across the
area by Wednesday. High temperatures in the 70s, as lows cool to the
50s. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, though even PWATs near 1"
and onshore flow, would not be surprised to see at least low shower
chances continue along the coast through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

High pressure centered over the Gulf shifts east and across the area
into late week, generating favorable boating conditions. W/NW winds
up to 10-15 knots tonight will diminish to 5-10 knots Friday, with
seas 2-4 feet tonight falling to 2-3 feet tomorrow. Low pressure
moving through the Southeast U.S. Saturday will eventually drag a
weak cold front through the region on Sunday. This will lead to
deteriorating boating conditions this weekend, with SW winds
increasing to 15-25 knots through Saturday afternoon, veering to
W/SW Saturday night as the front approaches. This will build seas up
to 5-6 feet offshore through early Sunday. Winds become N/NW behind
the front Sunday, around 15-20 knots, maintaining seas up to 4-6
feet and continuing poor boating conditions.

High pressure north of the front and across the Mid-Atlantic will
shift offshore into early next week, with winds diminishing to 5-10
knots and veering onshore. Seas are forecast to linger up to 6 feet
over the Gulf Stream waters Monday, but then seas fall to 3-5 feet
on Tuesday.

Dry conditions are forecast to persist across the waters through
late week into Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will then be possible Saturday night into Sunday ahead of and
along the front, with isolated showers persisting across the waters
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1236 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. W-NW winds have
crept up to 10-15 kts with higher gusts along the coast, but
expected to become light again later this evening. Otherwise,
light W-NW with today become VRB at times over night. Very low to
low (10-30%) chances for MVFR VIS reductions from HZ Friday
morning roughly 10Z-14Z, highest chances at KMCO and other inland
terminals. MIFG possible at most terminals. Model consistency has
been poor, so keeping the TAFs VFR for now. VFR conditions prevail
the rest of the day. Light W-SW winds. A weak sea breeze could
cause winds to shift onshore at times at KVRB-KSUA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

High pressure builds eastward from the central Gulf to across
Florida through late week, with temperatures gradually rising back
toward more normal values. Rain chances remain out of the
forecast through the daytime Saturday, but will return into
Saturday night and Sunday with the passage of a cold front this
weekend. Min RH values gradually recover into Friday and Saturday,
with values forecast to remain above critical values. Dispersion
will be good to very good near and north of I-4 Friday, though
portions of the Treasure Coast are forecast to see only fair
dispersion Friday afternoon due to lighter transport winds. As
transport winds increase into Saturday, dispersion values will
become very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  44  71  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  41  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  39  71  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  71  52  74 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  43  71  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  38  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley