033
FXUS62 KMLB 152314
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
614 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 614 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Rough surf and numerous rip currents will persist at area
  beaches tonight. Poor to hazardous boating conditions will also
  continue.

- Despite intervals of cloudiness and a low chance for mainly
  coastal showers, temperatures trend warmer through the rest of
  the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... The upper level low pressure will deepen
and move eastward towards Maine through the day. At the surface, a
strong high pressure centered over the Midwest will shift southward
into the Deep South with the axis building over the Florida
peninsula. Moisture will remain somewhat elevated today, with
forecast PW values around 0.8-1.0". Marine stratocu will continue to
push onshore today, leading to cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across
much of the area. There is a low (20-30 percent) chance of showers
and sprinkles today with this cloud cover, mainly along the coast.
A few onshore moving showers will continue into tonight, with cloud
cover breaking up some, but still remaining partly cloudy.

The pressure gradient has loosened slightly over the local area
into this afternoon, allowing the windy conditions earlier this
morning to slacken. Because of this, have allowed the Wind Advisory
to expire. Despite the slackening of the pressure gradient, breezy
and gusty conditions will continue through the day. Northeast winds
at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon will become
north to northeast and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.

These breezy and gusty winds will also lead to hazardous beach
conditions, with a high risk for rip currents, and large breaking
waves of 7-9 feet producing rough, pounding surf and minor beach
erosion at area beaches. A High Surf Advisory continues along the
coast through 7 PM this evening. A Rip Current Statement for the
high risk of rip currents also continues into tonight.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front today despite
the low level onshore winds keeping the temperatures from going as
low as they are north of the local area. Afternoon highs will be in
the low to mid 60s across the north and upper 60s to low 70s across
the south. Overnight lows will range from low to mid 40s across the
far north and near 60 degrees across the far south tonight.

Tuesday-Thursday... A weakening high pressure across the Deep South
will move into GA early on Tuesday before gradually shifting
eastward, moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean by Thursday. The
trailing axis will remain over the Florida Peninsula through the
time period. This will result in north to northeast winds turning
easterly on Tuesday at 5-10 mph as the high settles into the Deep
South before eventually veering east to southeast Wednesday evening
and continuing through Thursday as the high moves offshore. Mostly
dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday, with no mentionable
rain chances over land areas through that time. Isolated to
scattered showers will continue to be possible over the Atlantic
waters however. Rain chances return to land areas on Thursday and
Thursday night well ahead of the next front, with low (20-30
percent) chance for showers across much of the area.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend into late week, going
from seasonable/slightly below normal to above normal by Thursday.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 70s on Tuesday, mid 70s
on Wednesday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 50s Tuesday night, mid to upper 50s on
Wednesday night, and upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday night.

Friday-Sunday...An upper level trough will push into the eastern US
on Friday and out into the Atlantic on Saturday. High pressure over
the eastern US will move eastward and offshore Saturday night and
continue to move seaward on Sunday. A weakening cold front moves
through the southeast U.S and will eventually reach the local area
on Friday. First the front will drop into northern Florida before
reaching the far northern part of the CWA Friday night/early
Saturday morning, then pushing through the rest of the CWA
throughout the day on Saturday. High pressure across the eastern US
will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the front as it
moves eastward, eventually moving offshore on Sunday.

North to northwest winds at 5-10 mph on Friday will veer northeast
to east on Saturday and Sunday behind the front. The frontal passage
Friday night through Saturday looks to be mostly dry, with no
mentionable rain chances over land areas Friday through Sunday.
However, isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible
across the Atlantic waters each day. Temperatures will not change
much behind the front, with afternoon highs forecast to be in the
upper 70s to low 80s each day. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s to low 60s on and Friday night, and range from upper 50s to low
60s across the north to low to mid 60s across the south Saturday and
Sunday nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Currently-Tonight... (Modified Previous Discussion) Hazardous
boating conditions will continue across the waters this afternoon,
as a breezy and gusty north-northeast breeze continues with
speeds 15-20 KT and gusts up to 35 KT as well as seas up to 7-11
ft. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues across the entire
waters through this evening. Winds will continue to diminish
overnight to 10-15 knots out of the E/NE, but seas will remain up
to 7-8 feet, mainly over the Gulf Stream waters where the SCA will
remain in place. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to
be possible over the waters through tonight, pushing toward the
southwest.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure
across the Southeast U.S. will build offshore Tuesday, with the
ridge axis remaining across the local waters through midweek. This
will continue onshore winds across the waters with wind speeds up to
10-15 knots Tuesday-Wednesday. Poor to hazardous boating conditions
will continue into Tuesday, as swells will maintain seas up to 5-7
feet. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the offshore
Brevard and Treasure Coast waters through Tuesday afternoon. Boating
conditions then become more favorable into Wednesday as seas fall to
3-5 feet.

Winds veer S/SE Thursday and then W/SW Thursday night before a weak
cold front moves through the waters Friday, switching winds to the
N/NW. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through late
week, with seas 3-4 feet Thursday and building back to 3-5 feet
Friday and Saturday.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the
waters for much of this week, with isolated storms possible mainly
over the gulf stream into Thursday night ahead of the approaching
weak front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 614 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Lowest confidence in the TAFs resides at KDAB, KTIX, and perhaps
even KMLB as guidance strongly disagrees on depth of low-level
moisture later tonight into Tuesday. For now, have gone with
mainly a low VFR, but these terminals have a 30-40% chance of
MVFR CIGs from time to time. If this occurs, it would also be
accompanied by a few showers. Otherwise, winds are lessening,
remaining N to NE through the TAF period as VFR tends to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  52  69  56  73 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  51  72  56  75 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  56  72  61  75 /  20  10   0  10
VRB  57  72  60  76 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  46  71  53  74 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  50  71  55  75 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  50  71  56  75 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  57  73  60  76 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Heil