Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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226 FXUS62 KMLB 020520 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1220 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 - Gradually warmer into the weekend, with daytime temperatures reaching the mid 70s on Saturday. - Breezy on Saturday, before a cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday, bringing the chance of showers. - Favorable boating conditions forecast into late week, but conditions then deteriorate into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 Tonight-Friday...High pressure centered across the central Gulf shifts eastward and across Florida into tomorrow, with dry conditions persisting. W/NW winds 10-15 mph this afternoon will diminish, becoming light and variable after sunset. Lighter winds combined with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies from increasing cirrus clouds will again lead to favorable radiational cooling conditions tonight. Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, and while lows tonight will still be several degrees below normal, they will not be as cold as they were this morning. Min temps will mostly be in the low to mid 40s, but normally colder locations NW of I-4 and south of Orlando eastward toward Vero Beach and Fort Pierce may see temps briefly dip down into the upper 30s toward daybreak Friday. Can`t completely rule out some patchy frost development in these areas, but coverage looks to be fairly limited. Patchy fog may also be possible late tonight into early Friday, but HREF guidance keeps overall probabilities of fog formation pretty low (at or below 20%). After sunrise, temperatures will quickly climb, with afternoon highs closer to normal values in the low 70s. Lows into Friday night will continue the warming trend, ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Saturday-Sunday...Low pressure moving east-northeast through the Southeast U.S. Saturday will eventually drag a weak cold front through the area Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front leading to rising rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as front approaches Florida and moves through the region. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail through much of the day Saturday, with PoPs then increasing to 40-60% from Osceola/Brevard counties northward and 20-30% across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast Saturday night. Isolated to scattered showers will spread across the area and weaken as front shifts south. Any instability looks to remain very weak over land, but may see a few storms across the waters ahead of and with the frontal passage where more CAPE will be present. Lingering rain chances up to 20-30 percent then persist toward the coast from the Cape southward inland toward Okeechobee County Sunday morning before drier air continues to move in through Sunday afternoon. Highs climb into the mid 70s Saturday and then fall slightly into the upper 60s to low 70s near to north of Orlando Sunday as front begins to move through. Farther south, max temps are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s depending on exact timing of the passage of the front. Lows drop from the mid 50s to low 60s Saturday night to low to mid 50s behind the front into Sunday night. Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Surface high pressure is forecast to develop early next week near the Carolinas, then drift offshore off of the Southeast US coast, where it looks to linger through at least mid-week. Onshore or southeast flow is expected through Thursday, remaining around 10 mph or less. Temperatures will continue to climb, even becoming slightly above normal across the area by Wednesday. High temperatures in the 70s, as lows cool to the 50s. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, though even PWATs near 1" and onshore flow, would not be surprised to see at least low shower chances continue along the coast through much of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 High pressure centered over the Gulf shifts east and across the area into late week, generating favorable boating conditions. W/NW winds up to 10-15 knots tonight will diminish to 5-10 knots Friday, with seas 2-4 feet tonight falling to 2-3 feet tomorrow. Low pressure moving through the Southeast U.S. Saturday will eventually drag a weak cold front through the region on Sunday. This will lead to deteriorating boating conditions this weekend, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 knots through Saturday afternoon, veering to W/SW Saturday night as the front approaches. This will build seas up to 5-6 feet offshore through early Sunday. Winds become N/NW behind the front Sunday, around 15-20 knots, maintaining seas up to 4-6 feet and continuing poor boating conditions. High pressure north of the front and across the Mid-Atlantic will shift offshore into early next week, with winds diminishing to 5-10 knots and veering onshore. Seas are forecast to linger up to 6 feet over the Gulf Stream waters Monday, but then seas fall to 3-5 feet on Tuesday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist across the waters through late week into Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will then be possible Saturday night into Sunday ahead of and along the front, with isolated showers persisting across the waters into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1220 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026 VFR conds prevail. Low (20%) chance we experience brief dips due to ground fog early this morning at a few terminals - will monitor and AMD if needed. Otherwise, light winds become WSW up to 10 KT today, then slowly turn southerly < 5 KT overnight into Sat AM. Expecting some mid/high cloud cover and perhaps some cu from 4-5 KFT this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 High pressure builds eastward from the central Gulf to across Florida through late week, with temperatures gradually rising back toward more normal values. Rain chances remain out of the forecast through the daytime Saturday, but will return into Saturday night and Sunday with the passage of a cold front this weekend. Min RH values gradually recover into Friday and Saturday, with values forecast to remain above critical values. Dispersion will be good to very good near and north of I-4 Friday, though portions of the Treasure Coast are forecast to see only fair dispersion Friday afternoon due to lighter transport winds. As transport winds increase into Saturday, dispersion values will become very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 51 75 57 / 0 0 20 60 MCO 70 52 75 61 / 0 0 10 50 MLB 71 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 40 VRB 70 48 75 56 / 0 0 0 30 LEE 70 52 75 59 / 0 0 20 60 SFB 70 51 76 59 / 0 0 10 50 ORL 70 52 75 60 / 0 0 10 50 FPR 71 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil