531
FXUS62 KMLB 130001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
801 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Wet weather pattern continues with scattered shower and storm
  coverage maximized each afternoon and early evening. Heat
  indices are forecast to reach the low 100s through at least
  Monday.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at east central
  Florida beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone!

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the middle and latter
  part of next week as rain chances remain near to slightly above
  normal. Tuesday and Wednesday bring breezier conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Now-Sunday...Compared to this time yesterday, showers and storms are
taking a little longer to develop. A fair amount of low/mid cloud
cover and slower inland progression of the east coast breeze means
two things: a slightly later start to storms and an afternoon sea
breeze collision nearer to or just east of I-4. The 15z XMR sounding
indicates anomalously high PW values (2.31") as well, similar to
what was observed yesterday. Models are in fair agreement with the
east coast breeze slowly making a trek westward this afternoon,
eventually colliding with the west coast breeze near the Orlando
metro after 4 PM. Any storms prior to sunset will be capable of
torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and occasionally gusty
winds (40-50 mph). Light background flow and erratic storm motions
may allow for instances of minor flooding (ponding on roads) to
develop. When thunder roars, go indoors! Rain and storms will be on
a quick downward trend after 8-9 PM with the loss of daytime heating.

Sunday looks to bring a lot of the same in terms of rain and storm
coverage. Mid level troughing over the northeast (well north of us)
slides eastward while the H5 ridge axis stays in place locally.
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will feel more like the low 100s
(heat index) as early as lunchtime on Sunday. Even with increasing
clouds through the day, it will feel very muggy. A more active west-
to-east push of showers and storms is possible, based on some newer
runs of CAM guidance. Like today, it could take until midday or
early afternoon until the east coast breeze starts to meander inland
(accompanied by scattered rain/storms). Another sea breeze/outflow
collision closer to the Orlando metro seems plausible as convection
peaks after 3-5 PM, dissipating around sunset.

At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues through
the rest of the weekend.

Monday-Friday (modified)...An upper level trough and attendant
surface front slide east over the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday as
high pressure builds over the Great Lakes/Northeast. The influence
of the high pressure center expands Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting
in a tighter pressure gradient along its southern flank. This alone
will increase onshore (ENE) winds locally by the middle of the week.
Latest ensemble probabilities for 30+ mph gusts indicate a gusty day
along the immediate coast Tuesday, followed by gustier winds
spilling inland on Wednesday (EPS 40-50%+ and NBM 60-80%+ prob. of
30+ mph gusts).

Beyond mid week, greater uncertainty exists within the synoptic
pattern. As an H5 trough continues to move offshore, a broadened
area of low pressure rounds the eastern side of the mid- level
ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. A number of deterministic
models show this area becoming a closed low while ensemble
guidance maintains more of a broad open wave over the southwest
Atlantic. The area of low pressure continues to round the decaying
ridge over the southeast U.S. late in the week, passing over
Florida and into the Gulf Thursday into Friday. Deep moisture
generally persists through the extended forecast, continuing a
period of near to above seasonal rain chances. Slightly above
normal temperatures are forecast Monday and Tuesday as highs reach
the low 90s (mid 90s in a few spots Monday). Increasing onshore
flow should then help bring nearer-to-normal temperatures, with
highs ranging the upper 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Now-Monday...Mainly favorable boating conditions will last into
early next week as high pressure maintains light winds. The east
coast breeze will turn winds onshore each afternoon, then returning
southwesterly overnight. Scattered showers and storms are in the
forecast each day, particularly closer to the coast. At night, some
activity may develop farther offshore in the Gulf Stream. 2-3 ft
seas, except locally higher near storms.

Tuesday-Thursday (modified)...Poor to hazardous boating conditions
build into mid week as a cold front moves offshore the northeast
U.S. Onshore winds increasing 10-20 kts Tuesday increase further to
20-25 kts into Wednesday (especially north of Sebastian Inlet). Seas
2-4 ft on Tuesday build 6-8 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds
begin to subside Wednesday night, becoming 10-15 kts Thursday.
Similarly, seas subside to 4-6 ft Thursday. Increased onshore flow
should support high coverage of showers and storms over the waters
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Convection pushing back to the east coast this evening so have
TEMPO TS for several sites thru 02Z then quiet VFR conds overnight.
On Sun, a light W/NW flow to start, turning onshore (E) around 10
knots at coastal terminals by 18Z. ISOLD-SCT convection will
develop along the sea breeze as it pushes inland followed by a sea
breeze collision in the vicinity of ISM/MCO/SFB late in the
afternoon, with some push back to the coast again which will
likely cause convection to linger til 02Z or so. Gusty winds to 40
kts and locally heavy rainfall will be threats with stronger
storms. VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  76  92  76  92 /  30  50  30  70
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  10  40
VRB  74  89  74  89 /  20  40  10  40
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  75  92  76  92 /  30  50  30  70
ORL  77  91  77  92 /  30  50  30  70
FPR  74  89  73  89 /  20  50  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly