474
FXUS62 KMLB 261855
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Increasing moisture through early this week will allow rain
  chances to return to near and above normal values.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon & evening
  (2-5" totals within reach). In addition, a few strong to severe
  storms will be in play with potentially strong to damaging wind
  gusts of 50-60 mph.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat
  indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially
  nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the
  area into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Through Tonight...Limited cloud coverage this morning has allowed
for sufficient daytime heating across east central Florida, with
temperatures already in the low to mid 90s areawide and exceeding
the convective temperature. As a result, shower and storm activity
has started a bit earlier than CAM guidance initially suggested,
with increasing coverage anticipated over the next several hours.
The adequate daytime heating will support modest instability
across the area, with MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg and likely
increasing through the afternoon hours. DCAPE has already exceeded
800 J/kg per the 15Z XMR sounding, with guidance indicating some
spots could exceed 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Interactions between
outflow from this initial convection and the east coast sea breeze
will be the primary drivers of robust convective development this
afternoon into the evening hours, with storm hazards including
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 50-60 mph, heavy
downpours thanks to PWATs exceeding 2" areawide, and a low chance
of small hail. A Marginal Risk (1/5) of severe weather remains in
effect from Titusville to Orlando and areas northward. Showers
and storms will move offshore today, with the potential for some
slow-moving activity. In areas that see slower moving showers and
storms there is a greater risk for localized flooding, with
rainfall accumulations of 2-5" possible. A majority of east
central Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive
rainfall today. Activity will gradually diminish and push offshore
through this evening, with some lingering activity across the
local waters possible overnight. Mostly dry across the peninsula
tonight, with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...The Florida peninsula will remain under the
broad influence of ridging aloft through early this week, with the
mid- level high centered across Texas and the Four Corners region
and its eastern ridge axis extending towards Florida. Northward,
a trough gradually shifts off the east coast, prompting an area of
low pressure just offshore the Mid Atlantic region to push
farther offshore, with its associated frontal boundary stalling
across the southeastern US. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain
south of the Florida peninsula. Locally, the Florida peninsula
will remain within a plume of moisture through early this week,
with PWATs exceeding 2.1". Coupled with persistent southwesterly
winds and limited intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze,
higher shower and storm chances will continue to be favored across
the eastern portion of the peninsula, with PoPs ranging between
30-60%. Modest instability, steep low-level lapse rates, PWATs
2"+, and DCAPE exceeding 800 J/kg each afternoon will support
storm development, with primary hazards including frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours
that could result in some localized flooding. West to northwest
steering flow will push activity offshore each day, with a 20-40%
chance of activity persisting across the local Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours while conditions remain mostly dry
across the peninsula.

Near to above normal temperatures are forecast to persist across
east central Florida through early this week, with highs ranging
from the low to mid 90s on Monday and the low to upper 90s on
Tuesday. The warmest temperatures will be focused across the
northern portions of the area. Peak heat indices of 102-107F are
anticipated areawide, with a low to medium chance of exceeding
Heat Advisory criteria, especially across the northern counties.
This will continue to be monitored closely and products will be
issued as needed. Residents and visitors are encouraged to
practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness.
Overnight temperatures will remain warm and muggy in the mid to
upper 70s, with some spots potentially nearing 80 on Tuesday night
near the metro areas.

Wednesday-Saturday...Mid-level troughing across the eastern US
will strengthen, with 500 mb heights falling across the Florida
peninsula mid to late week. A series of shortwaves will pass
overhead, rounding the base of the trough and pushing southward
across the Florida peninsula. At the surface, this will help push
a quasi- stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US
towards Florida, stalling just north of the area. The pressure
gradient will tighten starting Wednesday, with southwesterly winds
remaining breezy which will limit the chances for the east coast
sea breeze to move inland. While the sea breeze won`t necessarily
be the primary driver behind shower and storm development, energy
from the passing shortwaves aloft will support development across
east central Florida each day, particularly during the afternoon
hours from Thursday onward. Rain and storm chances will range
between 30-40% on Wednesday, increasing to 50-70% areawide
Thursday through Saturday, with lightning and gusty winds possible
with storms. Another concern will be the risk for flooding,
primarily driven by the continued active and wet pattern across
the peninsula. WPC has already included northern portions of east
central Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall on
Wednesday and Thursday, so will continue to closely monitor the
flooding threat as time goes on. Activity will move offshore
through the evening hours, though lingering isolated to scattered
development into the overnight hours cannot be ruled out,
especially across northern portions of the area.

Temperatures will continue be above normal on Wednesday, with
guidance hinting at the potential for exceeding Heat Advisory
criteria across the north Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and
through late week, the increasing moisture from the stalled
boundary will lead to increasing cloud coverage, which will limit
some of the daytime heating across east central Florida but still
keep conditions humid and muggy. While afternoon highs and
overnight lows are forecast to trend closer to normal late this
week, heat indices exceeding 100F are still anticipated across
east central Florida. Residents and visitors will need to continue
practicing heat safety through late week in order to avoid
developing any heat-related illness.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters
through most of this week, with southwesterly winds persisting.
Winds of 5 to 15 knots are forecast through Tuesday, increasing to
15 to 20 knots Wednesday and Thursday as a quasi-stationary
boundary drifts southward and leads to a tightening pressure
gradient. Seas of 2-4 feet will be possible, with the chance for
some 5 foot seas across the offshore waters due to the increasing
winds. By Friday, winds are forecast to subside to 10 to 15 knots
with seas of 1-3 feet.

The prevailing southwesterly flow through this week will favor
offshore-moving showers and storms from the peninsula and across
the local Atlantic waters each afternoon and into the overnight
hours. Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, wind gusts in
excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours. Some lingering activity
through the overnight hours will be possible each night,
especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
 - 55-65% chance of storms between 18Z-00Z.
 - Low chance (5-10%) of convective wind gusts exceeding 50 KT in
   the strongest storms this afternoon.

After a quiet and sunny morning, we are seeing some initial
development of storms across Central Florida. Upscale growth of
storms should continue through late afternoon, with most
terminals seeing some impacts from storms today. Have adjusted
timing earlier for the TEMPOs to reflect radar trends. Highest
concern will be strong convective gusts (> 35 KT) and brief
IFR/LIFR restrictions beneath storms.

A lull in showers/storms is forecast overnight, though an earlier
start (mid/late morning) to additional convection is favored in
the guidance for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  94 /  40  50  10  30
MCO  78  93  77  95 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  76  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
LEE  79  93  79  94 /  30  60  20  30
SFB  79  93  78  95 /  30  60  20  40
ORL  78  93  78  95 /  30  60  20  40
FPR  74  92  74  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil