217
FXUS62 KMLB 301050
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

- Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will enhance coverage
  of afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms through at
  least early next week

- A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly
  in areas that see several rounds of heavy rain in storms

- A moderate rip current risk continues at local beaches;
  beachgoers should be aware of offshore moving storms this
  afternoon and evening

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Today...Florida remains within the base of a sprawling and anomalous
trough centered across the eastern half of the CONUS. At the
surface, a relatively weak pressure gradient exists, though a
stationary front sits just to our north. Deep moisture pooling
near the boundary, combined with westerly steering flow throughout
nearly the entirely atmospheric column, is expected to enhance
the typical summertime convective pattern once again.

Guidance maintains the highest coverage of afternoon and evening
storms over the eastern half of the peninsula, though high clouds
streaming overhead could disrupt heating for a time, injecting some
uncertainty into today`s convective evolution. Have retained above-
climatology storm chances (55-70%), highest along and to the east of
the St. Johns River as well as the Treasure Coast, where the
Atlantic sea breeze is likely to remain pinned. Typical convective
hazards for late August remain in play - including the potential for
brief weak rotation and funnel clouds where stronger boundary
collisions and interactions take place. A low risk for excessive
rain persists given the enhancement to the summertime pattern -
we`ll pay special attention to convection that develops over areas
that have seen higher rainfall totals over the past 48-72 hours.

Given the slightly stronger westerly flow expected, beachgoers
should keep an eye to the western sky this afternoon as storms are
more likely to push into the Atlantic later today.

Sunday...Broad troughing remains in place over the eastern U.S.,
albeit slightly weaker as the primary upper low shifts into the
Canadian Maritimes. Guidance indicates the front will nudge a little
closer to the area as both deterministic and ensemble members
suggest a broad, weak low developing over the Atlantic. Deep
moisture pooling along and to the south of this feature, combined
with continued westerly flow aloft, support above normal
precipitation chances. Maintained a high chance (70-80%) for now,
though future iterations of the forecast may be able to introduce
a north-to-south gradient depending on where the front settles.

Monday-Friday...Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement through
the end of next week, with an unusually strong signal for continued
troughing over the eastern half of the United States. The "big
picture" suggests a continuation of higher-than-usual rain chances
through at least the middle of the week. The placement of the
surface boundary and its attendant moisture pool, along with several
shortwaves rounding the base of the trough, will dictate which areas
see the greatest chances for storms through at least Wednesday.
For now, broad 60-70% PoPs focused on the afternoon and evening is
the appropriate play. A low excessive rainfall threat continues
each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of
storms.

Toward the end of the forecast period, guidance indicates a sharp
polar trough emanating from Canada may provide enough forcing to
shift the local surface boundary southward. At the very least,
this would lead to a sharp north-to-south gradient of precipitation
chances, which the NBM is beginning to show in the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Saturday...Light offshore flow at or below 10 knots will turn
onshore this afternoon behind the Atlantic sea breeze. Afternoon
storms are expected to develop over the mainland and push back
toward the coast. Seas 1 - 3 feet.

Sunday-Wednesday...A surface boundary is forecast to meander over
the local waters early next week, resulting in a slight surge of
north to northeast winds (up to 15 knots). Seas will gradually
deteriorate into Labor Day, increasing up to 3 to 6 feet offshore
(highest north). Higher coverage of storms is forecast during the
evening and early overnight hours as inland storms push offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Generally light offshore winds thru the morning and for much of
the afternoon as WRLY flow is more dominant. If the ECSB is able
to develop it will make little movement inland. Storm steering
flow out of the west forecast near 20 kts, so activity could be a
bit earlier pushing across the peninsula. Carrying TEMPO groups
for the I-4 corridor and Volusia coast. Future shifts can update
if timing is a little earlier. Greatest chance for coastal TAF
sites may be later in the afternoon and early evening, as activity
pushes offshore. TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection, otherwise
mainly VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  87  74 /  70  30  80  40
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  80  30
MLB  90  74  88  75 /  70  40  80  50
VRB  91  73  90  73 /  70  50  80  50
LEE  88  74  88  74 /  60  30  80  30
SFB  90  74  89  74 /  70  30  80  40
ORL  90  74  89  74 /  60  30  80  30
FPR  92  72  91  71 /  70  50  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ulrich
AVIATION...Sedlock