721
FXUS62 KMLB 141752
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
152 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for today from 10 AM to 8PM for heat index
  values up to 108F-112F degrees; Remember to practice heat safety!

- A Major Heat Wave with significant heat impacts is expected
  through next week. Maximum heat index values will reach near
  Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend and
  into next week; Additional Heat Advisories are likely for at
  least portions of east central Florida each day

- Below normal rain chances continue into early next week. Drier
  air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong and
  gusty winds in any lightning storms each day

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows dry conditions over
east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are
currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 70s
to around 80 degrees. The 00Z XMR skew-t sounding from last night
indicates a substantial dry layer in the mid to upper levels.
Additionally, analysis charts show a longwave ridge over the central
and southern CONUS with 500mb heights at 594dm over the southern US.
Meanwhile, high pressure (~1020mb) is over the eastern Gulf at the
surface.

High pressure will build over the eastern CONUS today with 500mb
heights expected to reach the maximum percentile (598dm) for this
time of year. Isolated to scattered showers (30-50% chance) and
lightning storms are forecast to develop in the afternoon and
evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from
previous showers/lightning storms. Rain chances diminish by around
8PM. Light and variable winds are forecast to turn onshore with the
east coast sea breeze in the afternoon and evening at around 5-10mph
today. Hi-res guidance shows MLCAPE up to 2,000-4,000 J/kg, 0-6km
shear up to 10-30kts, conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates,
and PWATs up to 1.80- 2.20" this afternoon. The aforementioned
weather parameters are favorable for isolated strong storms capable
of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-50mph, and heavy rainfall
(up to 1-3"). A hot and humid day is expected today with afternoon
highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for all of east central Florida from 10AM
to 8PM for heat index values up to 108-112F degrees. Remember to
take frequent breaks from the heat, drink plenty of fluids, wear
light colored clothing, and shift outdoor work away from the hottest
parts of the day between the hours of 10am to 4pm. Above normal (2-
4+ degrees) lows in mid 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast
overnight.

The Weekend... A persistent weather pattern is expected as the
mid/upper level high with 500mb heights at 598dm expected to build
over the eastern CONUS and the state of Florida. The high is then
expected to shift west-southwest over the southwestern US on Sunday.
Below normal rain chances are forecast through the weekend with high
pressure over the region, as well as a Saharan Dust layer. Isolated
to scattered showers (20-40% chance) and lightning storms are
forecast to develop as collisions occur between sea breezes and
outflow from previous showers/lightning storms with the greatest
chance for showers and lightning storms generally south of Lake
Kissimmee to Melbourne. High instability, low bulk shear, and
sufficient PWATs suggests that there is the potential for isolated
strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 30-
50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3") on Saturday. Even drier air is
expected to advect over east central Florida on Sunday with a low
chance (20%) for showers and lightning storms generally north of
Melbourne to Kissimmee Prairie Preserve. Hot and humid conditions
will continue with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the
coast and the mid to upper 90s inland. Additional Heat Advisories
are likely with heat index values up to 108F to 112F degrees
forecast. There is a widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk (north of
the Treasure Coast) for east central Florida each day. An extreme
HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Go
to wcp.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk more information on HeatRisk.

Monday-Thursday... Below normal rain chances are forecast to
continue into at least the beginning of the work week. Ensembles,
LREF-clusters, and deterministic models continue to be in decent
agreement that the mid/upper level ridge will shift west-southwest
over the southern US as a mid/upper trough deepens over the
northeastern US. However, the latest model guidance does not deepen
the trough as far south as previous model runs until later in the
week and LREF-clusters, as well as deterministic models begin to
diverge in different scenarios on Thursday. At the surface, a
frontal boundary is forecast to sag over the eastern CONUS and
southern US Tuesday into Wednesday which will result in an increase
in rain chances over east central Florida. The heat wave is expected
to continue with significant heat impacts for east central Florida.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast with lows in
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. A Major HeatRisk is likely for
most of east central Florida with the probabilities for an Extreme
Heat Risk up to 30-70% mainly north of the Treasure Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered
generally onshore moving showers (20-40% chance) and lightning
storms are forecast in the morning and afternoon. The potential
exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts greater than
or equal to 34kts. Southwest winds at 5-10mph are forecast to back
south-southeast in the afternoon and evening at 5-10mph. Seas up to
1-2ft are expected.

Saturday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Mostly dry weather is
forecast except for on Saturday when isolated to widely scattered
showers (20-30% chance) and lightning storms are forecast mainly
south of Melbourne. An isolated strong storm capable of wind gusts
greater than or equal to 34kts cannot be ruled out. South-southwest
winds are expected to back south-southeast, as well as onshore at 5-
10mph along the coast with the east coast sea breeze each afternoon
through Monday. Winds will turn west on Tuesday before backing south-
southeast, as well as onshore at 5-10mph.
Seas up to 1-2ft are forecast to build up to 3ft over the far
offshore (20-60nm) Volusia to Brevard county waters on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The east coast sea breeze has developed and begun pushing land,
shifting light/VRB winds onshore (E-SE) at 5-10 kts behind the
boundary. ISO TS/SH have developed across the area, and are
expected to increase in coverage becoming SCT-NUM INVOF of
KMCO/inland terminals after 21Z as outflow and the sea breezes
collide over the interior. Most TS should dissipate or depart
westward after 23Z, but some activity could linger INVOF of the
inland terminals until around 02Z. Added VCTS to most coastal
terminals, and upgraded inland PROB30 to TEMPOs based on latest
trends and guidance, but overall TS timing remains unchanged.
Quiet and dry overnight, with light/VRB winds. Lower coverage of
TS/SH forecast Saturday. Flow becomes more onshore (ESE-SE),
favoring quickly development/progression of the east coast sea
breeze.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

DAB 14-Aug 96 2010 78 2024
LEE 14-Aug 98 1991 79 2023
SFB 14-Aug 98 2013 79 2025
MCO 14-Aug 98 2007 79 2025
MLB 14-Aug 97 2010 82 2016
VRB 14-Aug 97 1993 80 1987
FPR 14-Aug 96 1929 80 1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  77  94 /   0  20  10  20
MCO  76  97  77  97 /  10  20  20  20
MLB  78  92  78  94 /  10  10   0  20
VRB  76  92  76  93 /   0  20   0  10
LEE  78  96  78  96 /  20  20  20  10
SFB  77  96  78  96 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  77  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
FPR  76  92  75  94 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley