524
FXUS62 KMLB 280108
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
908 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- Rain and storm chances increase late this week through the
  holiday weekend, with lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy
  downpours causing localized flooding being the primary storm
  hazards.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain near-normal across east
  central Florida through the remainder of this week and into next
  week.

- At least a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast to persist
  at local beaches through the holiday weekend. Residents and
  visitors should plan accordingly and heed the advice of local
  beach safety authorities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Sea breeze has shifted westward past Lake County and storms that
developed near Orlando/Kissimmee have diminished. Can`t rule out
an additional shower or storm through late evening, west of
Orlando should any outflow boundaries push into Lake County from
storms across Marion County. Some redeveloping isolated convection
may be possible along the front as it shifts northward near to
north of Volusia County late tonight, and may see some isolated
onshore moving showers along the southern Treasure Coast where a
light low level southeast flow will be present. Otherwise,
majority of developing convection will remain over the coastal
waters, with mostly dry conditions forecast over land overnight.
Skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy, with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...The weak frontal boundary draped across
central Florida is forecast to diminish through the remainder of
today and into the overnight hours. Drier air behind the boundary
has filtered in across the Orlando metro and areas northward, with
PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches being measured on Total PWAT satellite
imagery. A bit more moisture is lingering along and ahead of the
front. Along the coast, the east coast sea breeze has developed
and is slowly pushing inland. Guidance continues to favor some
isolated to scattered shower and storm development across east
central Florida this afternoon, primarily along the sea breeze and
across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county, where the
greatest moisture currently resides. Any storms that manage to
develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes,
wind gusts up to 50 mph, and brief heavy downpours. While
progression inland of activity is forecast, weak westerly flow
aloft will help steer any showers and storms back towards the
coast. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the evening hours,
with continued development out across the local Atlantic waters
still possible overnight.

Outside of showers and storms, temperatures remain mostly on
track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s across east central
Florida. Lows tonight remain near normal for this time of year,
falling into the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Friday...A mid-level trough is forecast to gradually
build southward across the eastern U.S. towards Florida Thursday
into Friday as various shortwaves move along it. At the surface,
an area of high pressure situated across the Ohio Valley weakens
and gets kicked eastward as a decaying low and its attendant weak
cold front drift across the eastern U.S. and approach north
Florida.

Locally, this pattern will support increasing moisture across the
area due to onshore flow on Thursday coupled with the approaching
front on Friday, with PWATs forecast to reach 2 inches and
greater once again across east central Florida. Increasing rain
and storm chances are anticipated as a result of this. Southeast
winds on Thursday will support the development and easy
progression inland of the east coast sea breeze which will allow
for shower and storm development along and ahead of the sea
breeze. Greatest coverage will be focused across the interior west
of I-95 following a sea breeze collision in the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Westerly flow aloft will favor some drift
back of activity towards the east coast of Florida, with showers
and storms moving offshore and across the local waters. By Friday,
the previously mentioned weak front is forecast to approach
Florida, with winds locally remaining light and variable. The east
coast sea breeze is still anticipated to develop, but deep
westerly flow aloft will favor a sea breeze collision across east
central Florida and therefore, higher coverage of showers and
storms locally. Storms both Thursday and Friday may be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 50 mph, and
brief heavy downpours that could lead to minor localized flooding
in low-lying and urban areas with poor drainage.

Temperatures across the area are forecast to remain near normal
values for this time of year. Highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon, with peak heat indices potentially reaching 103F.
Overnight lows generally remain in the low to mid 70s area-wide.

Saturday-Tuesday...Mid-level troughing across the eastern U.S. is
anticipated to persist through the holiday weekend and into early
next week, with a number of shortwaves moving along the main
trough and digging southward towards Florida. At the surface, the
aforementioned frontal boundary is anticipated to continue
weakening through the weekend, with guidance hinting at the
development of a trough or low right near Florida. With the moist
airmass already in place, this pattern will favor a wet and high-
coverage forecast through the holiday weekend and into early next
week. Rain chances reach up to 80 percent through the weekend, and
with all the moisture present, there is a flooding concern,
especially in areas that see wetting rainfall in the days prior.
By Monday and Tuesday, rain chances fall back down to 70 percent,
but there is still a level of uncertainty relative to timing of
how quickly the trough/low moves away from the area. The biggest
discrepancy right now is the difference between the Euro and GFS
on Tuesday, with the GFS remaining the wetter solution of the two
as it keeps the trough/low closer to Florida. Would anticipate
these timing differences being resolved as we move through time,
with adjustments to the forecast likely in the coming days. Aside
from shower and storm chances, the weather is anticipated to
follow a relatively similar pattern each day through the extended
forecast. Light southwest to northwest winds in the mornings
become more easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland, with wind speeds generally remaining below 15 mph
each day. Temperatures continue to maintain near-normal values in
the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

With the holiday weekend approaching, some residents and visitors
may be planning to spend their time at the local beaches. Surf
heights of 1 to 3 feet will be possible along with at least a
moderate risk of rip currents. Residents and visitors are strongly
encouraged to swim only at lifeguarded beaches and to never enter
the ocean alone. Additionally, beach-goers should always heed the
caution of local beach safety authorities as well as posted
flags. It is also a good idea to familiarize yourself with how to
escape a rip current prior to heading out into the ocean.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Daily shower and storm chances are forecast to continue across
the local Atlantic waters through the remainder of the week and
into the weekend. Coverage of activity is forecast to increase
into the weekend as another boundary approaches the local waters
and a surface trough or low develops near Florida. Any storms that
develop across the local Atlantic waters may be capable of
producing frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34
knots, heavy downpours that reduce visibilities on the water, and
locally higher seas.

Aside from convection, boating conditions appear to remain rather
favorable over the next several days. Seas of 1 to 3 feet are
forecast across the local Atlantic waters, with variable winds
remaining below 15 knots. Each afternoon, winds are forecast to
become more onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops and
moves inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Storms lingering near KMCO/KISM will diminish over the next hour
or two, but could see some additional isolated shower/storm
development along any lingering boundaries through this evening,
mainly inland. For now have VCTS and tempo -TSRA ending at 01Z,
which should be sufficient as this activity continues to weaken.
Mostly dry conditions forecast past midnight, with any additional
showers and storms largely remaining over the coastal waters.
Winds remains rather light and variable into tomorrow, picking up
out of the east to around 8-10 knots at the coast as the sea
breeze develops and moves inland. Higher coverage of showers and
storms forecast tomorrow, with rain chances up to 60-70 percent.
For now have VCTS starting along the coast at 18Z as east coast
sea breeze forms and around 20-21Z inland as this boundary pushes
westward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  74  88 /  10  60  40  70
MCO  75  92  74  91 /  20  70  30  70
MLB  76  89  75  89 /  10  60  50  70
VRB  74  91  73  90 /  10  60  60  70
LEE  75  91  74  90 /  20  60  20  60
SFB  75  91  74  90 /  20  70  40  70
ORL  75  91  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
FPR  73  91  72  90 /  10  60  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich