009
FXUS62 KMLB 060007
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
707 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog are forecast again overnight tonight into
  Tuesday morning, becoming dense at times. Fog will continue to
  be a risk each morning through at least midweek.

- Warmer than normal into the weekend, with many spots reaching
  the lower 80s late this week. Mainly dry conditions prevail.

- Confidence in the timing of the next cold front remains low for
  next weekend. Cooler weather may begin as early as Sunday, but
  rain chances are still limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Rest of Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
strengthens through Tuesday, with a ridge axis orientated SW to NE
across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf. A lingering
convergence axis just offshore from the central Florida peninsula
is forecast to persist into Tuesday afternoon. While this line has
and is expected to continue to generate showers, offshore steering
flow looks to keep a vast majority of this activity offshore.
That being said, a few showers cannot be ruled out along the
Treasure Coast through this afternoon, when the axis is closest to
the coast.

Light offshore winds continue, becoming onshore along the immediate
coasts in the afternoon as a weak sea breeze develops.
Temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday
afternoon, after overnight lows in the 50s. The proximity of the
high and light winds will once again lead to patchy to areas of
fog overnight into Tuesday morning, if not again Tuesday night.
Fog will be dense at times, with visibilities below 1 mile. Use
caution during the morning commutes.

Wednesday-Friday...Ridging meanders near the area through late
week, maintaining overall quiet conditions. PoPs remain out of the
forecast over land, with only low (20%) chances for showers well
offshore Friday. Fog will remain a concern during the overnight
hours, with lighter winds. Southeasterly flow looks to develop and
strengthen late in the period, as the next cold front begins to
move towards the local area. Temperatures will remain above
normal, with lower 80s for all but the immediate coast by Friday.
Interior lows will remain in the 50s, while coastal areas fall to
only the lower 60s.

Saturday-Monday...Lower confidence into the weekend, as the next
cold front approaches the Florida peninsula. Models continue to
resolve timing discrepancies, as well as the forecast available
moisture. Currently, Saturday is forecast to remain dry, as
ridging is nudged farther into the Atlantic. Then, will need to
watch for an increase in PoPs into Sunday, though didn`t have
enough confidence in a specific model to deviate from the NBM
(below 15%). Regardless, northerly winds look to bring a cool
down late weekend and into early next week, though perhaps not
quite as dramatic as near the end of 2025.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through late week, as high
pressure persists over the western Atlantic. Light offshore winds
become onshore each afternoon through mid-week, as a weak sea
breeze develops. Onshore flow around 10-15 kts then develops into
late week. A few showers will remain over the waters through
Tuesday, otherwise mostly dry. Seas 3-5 ft today diminish to 1-3
ft through the period. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible
over the nearshore waters in the late night and early morning
hours into mid-week. Fog may become dense at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

No significant changes from the previous forecast, beginning with
VFR and trending MVFR/IFR (fog and stratus) after 04z-06z. IFR to
LIFR impacts are forecast at most terminals with lesser
confidence at SUA. With similar conditions to last morning, fog
may linger to 15z-16z before clearing. TEMPOs included to show
gradual improvement mid morning. VFR resumes gradually by 17z-18z
with dry conditions and light SW winds turning onshore at the
coast after 20z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  56  78  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  58  80  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  57  77  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  57  78  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  78  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  57  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  58  79  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  56  79  55  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper