449
FXUS62 KMLB 291050
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Modest increase in rain and storm chances across the south
  today, with greater coverage Wednesday onward as moisture
  increases from the south.

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all east central
  Florida Atlantic beaches today. Never enter the water alone and
  always swim near a lifeguard!

- Highs remain seasonably warm through midweek, with a slight
  warming trend Friday and into the weekend. Heat indices may
  reach the low 100s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Today-Tonight...A weak upper trough extends down the Eastern
Seaboard this morning, loosely influencing our weather pattern
today, before being replaced by modest ridging mid week. Near normal
temperatures are forecast, starting this morning with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Some mid and high level clouds are streaming
northward, a sign of more upper level cloud cover to come through
the day. Moisture will increase all day long, especially above 700mb
and 400mb, with near-surface advection lagging behind. Weak
southerly flow, at times a bit variable, will work against the
development of the east coast sea breeze. We may still observe one,
but it is likely to remain diffuse.

Rain chances return today but very modestly. CAMs are not impressed
with the convective environment today, partially due to delayed
moisture advection during peak heating. With a lack of overall shear
and instability among remnant dry air, 20-30% rain/storm chances are
reasonable for the southern third of the area today. A shower or two
can`t be ruled out over far northern Lake/Volusia, either, in closer
proximity to a stalled surface front over north FL/southern GA.
Places that do see rain likely collect less than 0.10". Temperatures
will reach the mid/upper 80s, despite additional mid/high clouds.
With the added humidity later in the day, peak heat indices will
push into the low 90s for most.

Dry conditions are forecast for a large portion of the area into
early Wednesday, but a coastal shower or isolated storm cannot be
ruled out as nocturnal activity develops near the Gulf Stream.

Wednesday-Thursday...A surface ridge axis is forecast to be centered
over the Mid Atlantic region during this period. Weak H5 ridging
also tries to build over central Florida as an upper level trough
rotates through the Rockies and Central Plains. Moisture advection
increases, especially Wednesday night into Thursday, as onshore flow
speeds up a bit. Both days are likely to feature an inland-moving
east coast breeze, perhaps a bit faster moving on Thursday, as
breezy east winds peak around 20 mph at times. It is along the sea
breeze in the afternoon where much of the rain and storm chances are
focused, moving from east-to-west through mid evening. The highest
rain chances Wednesday are anticipated along the Treasure Coast and
near Lake Okeechobee, pushing toward Osceola/Orange/southern Lake
counties into the evening. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and local forcing
along the sea breeze will support shower and storm initiation, but
weak lapse rates and a waterlogged column will likely limit stronger
activity. Additional moisture arrives Thursday, allowing rain
chances to spread farther north. Still, the better chances remain
focused from Orlando/Melbourne southward, where greater daytime
instability is forecast. Warming H5 temps will suppress an organized
strong storm risk, but there could still be storms producing
frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and gusty winds.
Afternoon temps are forecast to reach the upper 80s both days with
overnight lows slightly above normal.

Friday-Monday...Mid and upper level ridging is largely featured late
week into the weekend as broad troughing affects the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes, and Northeast U.S. An unchanged onshore-flow pattern is
forecast with deeper moisture overhead Friday, followed by modest
mid/upper layer drying Sunday into Monday. This helps to tone down
rain chances from 50-70% Friday to 30-50% this weekend and early
next week. By early next week, a cold front is progged to reach
north Florida and potentially slow or stall. Coincident with higher
PW (2.0"+) across northern areas, this could help boost rain chances
into the first full week of October. Temperatures look to remain
slightly above normal through this extended period, ranging from the
upper 80s/low 90s each day to the low/mid 70s overnight (warmer at
the coast in onshore flow).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Mainly favorable conditions are forecast through the week into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. High pressure settles to the
north of the waters mid to late week as predominant flow becomes
ESE. Lighter winds 10 knots or less through Wednesday become 10-15
kt for the remainder of the forecast period, locally enhanced mid to
late week along the coast behind the sea breeze. Seas generally 2-4
ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of storms.

Moisture builds northward over the next several days, increasing the
potential for shower and storm activity. Greater coverage is
expected overnight and into the morning hours, especially over the
Gulf Stream. Model trends favor inland-moving showers and storms
during the daytime and early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 608 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the period. Light and
variable winds will become south to southeast this afternoon and
increase to 5-10 KT. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
push up from the south across the Treasure Coast and around Lake
Okeechobee late this afternoon. Have included VCTS from VRB to
SUA starting at 20Z. Have added a PROB30 for SUA from 22Z through
01Z for 4SM TSRA BKN030. Additional TEMPO/PROB30 may be needed
during later TAF packages if confidence in timing and coverage
increases. Any lingering activity will push offshore or diminish
by 03Z. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Winds will then
become light and variable once again around 00/03Z. Winds around
the Orlando Metro area are forecast to become southeast and
increase to 5-10 by mid Wednesday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  71  85  73 /  10  10  30  10
MCO  88  72  87  73 /  10  10  40  20
MLB  87  72  86  75 /  10  20  40  20
VRB  87  71  87  74 /  30  20  50  30
LEE  88  71  87  71 /  10  10  40  20
SFB  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  50  20
ORL  88  72  87  73 /  10  10  50  20
FPR  87  71  87  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson