933
FXUS62 KMLB 162320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Lower rain/storm chances Tue-Thu as high pressure builds. This
  will produce above normal max temperatures in the mid 90s
  interior.

- Moderate humidity will produce peak heat indices 100-105 and a
  widespread Moderate HeatRisk. Major HeatRisk is forecast for the
  greater Orlando area each afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thru Tonight...Focus for aftn storms will continue to be over the
north interior sections where higher moisture resides (PWATs
close to 2") and sea/lake breeze boundary collisions will occur.
Drier air moving in from the south around the ridge axis will keep
most dry along the coast south of the Cape. Convection will
linger a little past sunset across the north then once the
instability is worked over, a quiet late evening/overnight is
forecast.

Tuesday-Sunday...The mid level ridge of high pressure is forecast
to remain across the FL peninsula and even build a little
stronger by Wed. This ridge will weaken a bit on Fri only to be
replaced by a stronger mid level ridge centered over the central
Appalachians this weekend. In the lower levels, the Atlc
subtropical ridge axis will remain draped across north/central
Florida. Drier air will move in mid week and lower rain chances to
30% Wed and 30-40% Wed and these PoPs may be generous. The lower
rain/storm coverage will produce above normal max temps in the mid
90s interior and around 90 coast. The drier air will help keep
dewpoints in check so humidity, while present, will be moderate.
The combination of heat and humidity will produce peak heat
indices 100-105. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria
(>=108), widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast with Major
HeatRisk across the Orlando metro area.

A bump in rain chances may come Friday with the weakness in the
ridging aloft. The focus for storms will be over the north
interior with 50-60% PoPs decreasing to 30% along the Treasure
coast. This weekend, the low level high pressure ridge over the
SW Atlc rebuilds just to our north, near 30N lat, which will
produce a persistent E/SE flow. Have kept PoPs close to climo
(30-50%) this weekend. This flow pattern favors overnight/morning
showers near the coast spreading inland quickly with a diffuse
east coast sea breeze during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The Atlc subtropical ridge axis will remain across north/central
FLorida, leading to generally favorable boating conditions.
South wind 5-10 knots overnight and early morning will become
Southeast 10 to 15 knots each afternoon near the coast behind the
east coast sea breeze. Seas around 2 ft. Isolated to scattered
shower and storm activity (20 to 40 percent chance) is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR outside of convection as the persistent pattern continues,
with ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms ending this evening
across the interior/I-4 corridor and mostly dry overnight. ESE/SE
winds behind the inland moving sea breeze will become light later
this evening and overnight. Light southerly winds early Tue will
again "back" ESE along the coast with sea breeze formation and
ISOLD-SCT convection in the afternoon/evening - favoring the
interior. VCTS for interior TAF sites Tue aftn where confidence is
highest; TEMPO groups to follow later as applicable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  30
MCO  76  95  75  94 /  30  30  20  40
MLB  76  90  76  89 /  10  20  10  30
VRB  74  90  74  90 /   0  30  10  30
LEE  75  94  76  94 /  30  30  20  40
SFB  75  95  75  94 /  30  30  10  30
ORL  76  94  76  94 /  30  30  20  40
FPR  72  90  73  89 /   0  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock