113
FXUS62 KMLB 010652
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida
  this week and into the weekend as onshore flow and high
  moisture supports above normal rain and storm chances, including
  during the overnights and early mornings.

- Primary storm hazards will be gusty winds 40 to 50 mph,
  occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally
  heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the
  triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks
  in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time
  outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-upper level high pressure slides slowly
eastward from near the Mississippi to the Tennessee River Valleys,
far enough north that mid-level disturbances on the southern
flank of the high will pass over Florida and the Gulf, helping to
keep local conditions unsettled. Weakening of the Bermuda high by
weather systems to the north and anomalously high moisture have
helped an inverted surface trough develop over the Atlantic waters
offshore Florida, which is forecast to gradually drift west in
the weak onshore flow. Between the trough and daytime convection,
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are possible today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected to develop over the
Atlantic waters through the rest of the morning, some of which may
move onshore (chances 20-40%). Additional scattered showers and
storms will then develop along and ahead of the east coast sea
breeze in the late morning to early afternoon, then push inland
through the rest of the afternoon and evening (chances 50-70%).
This activity could get going by late morning. While subsidence
behind the sea breeze should knock back coverage some behind the
boundary, the multiple disturbances could kick off yet more rounds
of convection at any point. The trough is forecast to approach
the coast late in the evening into the overnight, but enhanced
onshore floor from the sea breeze could move this timeline
earlier. Scattered to numerous showers will once again develop
over the Atlantic waters tonight after the sea breeze circulation
shuts down, some of which could move onshore (chances 20-40%).

Model and recent upper-air soundings show a very saturated
atmosphere with long-skinny profiles and warm mid-levels (PWATs
2.2-2.4" and T500 around -5 C) typical of an environment
supportive of heavy rainfall. Easterly steering flow has returned
but remains weak (10 kts or less), and chaotic boundary
interactions may again dictate storm motion. Storms or heavy
showers that become slow/erratic could deliver a quick 2-3" of
rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding
of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage areas. There is a very low
(up to 5%) chance for one or two spots to receive +4" of rainfall
leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction
Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to the
rainfall, stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of
gusty winds 40-50 mph from water loading. Occasional to frequent
cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. If the
trough settles just off the coast tonight, there is potential for
training of heavy rainfall and overnight flooding on portions of
the coastal corridor. Current hi-res models/ensembles don`t setup
significant banding or rainfall, but trends will need to be
monitored.

As for the rest of the forecast, temperatures seasonable with
afternoon highs in the U80s-L90s and lows in the L-M70s. Peak
afternoon heat indices 98-105. A Moderate risk of rip currents
continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never
swim alone.

Wednesday-Thursday...The mid-upper level high over the Southeast
stalls, then begins to slip back west as the pattern starts to
amplify in response to troughs/low pressure systems near the
Pacific Northwest and Southeastern Canada, while mid-level
disturbances meander over/near Florida at the base of the ridge.
The surface trough will linger near our coast or possibly have
moved inland, depending how quick it moves today, before the
Bermuda high strengthens enough to increase onshore flow a bit and
usher the feature westward. This will keep anomalously high
moisture (PWATS 2.2-2.4") over Florida, continuing the pattern of
showers and storms developing over the Atlantic waters in the
overnight/early morning, then shifting inland in the late morning
and afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. There is potential
for moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly
to add to the soup, though it is becoming increasingly difficult
to track the remnants, even the moisture plume. The National
Hurricane Center has dropped this system from the Tropical Weather
Outlook due to very low chances of development. PWATs are already
nearing environment maximums without the additional moisture, and
well above normal afternoon rain chances (60-80%) are forecast
regardless. The saturated atmosphere will continue to support
locally high rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding,
and very low (up to 5%) chances for +4" of rainfall producing more
impactful flooding. NBM is signally an extremely low but non-zero
chance for bulls-eyes over 6", that could lead to flash flooding.
All of East Central Florida remains outlined in a Marginal (level
1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall both days.

Stronger storms and heavy showers will also be capable of gusty
winds, particularly Thursday where models are starting to show
some dry air intrusion that would enhance downdrafts. Occasional
to frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany
thunderstorms. Temperatures remain seasonable in the U80s-L90s,
and lows in the 70s. Peak afternoon heat indices 100-107. The rip
current risk increases slightly, becoming Moderate to High as
long period swell arrives. Beach goers should monitor the
forecast, and check in with lifeguards before entering the water.

Friday-Monday...18Z model guidance had diverged pretty
significantly, especially into the weekend and early next week,
but the 00Z package is coming into better agreement. Both the ECM
and the GFS amplify the mid-upper level pattern with troughs on
the west and east coasts, causing the ridge to our north to
retrograde back over the Intermountain West while deepening. The
18Z GFS was far more aggressive, digging a sharp positively tilted
trough down the eastern seaboard all the way to Florida, while
pushing a cold front south that was depicted to reach Florida
early next week, turning low-level flow from southerly to westerly
through the weekend. While not unheard of, this would be unusual
for early September. The 18Z ECM and 00Z GFS are much more
moderate, bringing a broader trough down to the Mid-Atlantic over
the weekend before lifting north again, which keeps the Bermuda
high weakened and the surface ridge near to south of the area,
with light southerly flow. Both scenarios keep us in high moisture
through the weekend, but where the sea breeze collision and
highest afternoon rain chances will be depend on which flow regime
transpires. The 18Z GFS solution borders on physically impossible
and is not reflected in the 18Z GEFS, therefore the official
forecast leans closer to the 00Z GFS/ECM/ensembles, though the
uncertainty lends to more broad strokes.

The official forecast calls for above normal rain and lightning
storms chances to continue, but not quite as high as Thursday and
Friday, with the highest chances generally inland based on sea
breeze collisions somewhere between the western side the peninsula
and closer to the center. Lower chances linger over the Atlantic
waters and along the coast into the overnights. Near normal
temperatures creep up a few degrees Friday and Saturday, with
highs mostly in the 90s but flirting with the M90s inland,
bringing heat indices closer to 107. Highs then settle back to the
U80s-L90s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Today-Saturday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating
through the rest of the week, but isolated to scattered lightning
storms will remain a hazard, including during the overnights. The
ridge axis of the Bermuda remains stationed north of Florida and
the local Atlantic waters, but a weak inverted trough has set up
just outside the Central Florida coastal waters. Flow remains
onshore, but winds will be a bit more squirrelly than previously
forecast, shifting from NE-SSE over the next couple days as the
trough slowly tracks into our waters and inland. Through the rest
of the week, the Bermuda high will gradually weaken, causing
pressure gradient to loosen and the ridge axis to inch south,
possibly reaching Florida and the local Atlantic waters late in
the week or weekend. Winds will become more southeasterly
Thursday, then southerly Friday, and light/variable Saturday,
backing to the east in the afternoons when the sea breeze
develops. Speeds 5-10 kts, closer to 10 kts in the afternoon from
sea breeze enhancement. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore in
the Gulf Stream tonight into Wednesday, then settling to 1-2 ft
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms with
onshore flow. TAFs begin with VCSH at the coastal TAFs and TEMPO
groups for MVFR CIGs/VIS/SHRA at KFPR/KVRB/KSUA. Light and variable
winds are expected to increase from the ENE at 5-10mph after 13Z/14Z.
VCTS begins at 15Z-17Z with TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs/TSRA between
16Z-22Z. The potential exists for isolated strong storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  88  76 /  50  30  70  20
MCO  90  75  90  76 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  88  77  89  77 /  60  30  60  40
VRB  89  75  89  76 /  60  30  60  40
LEE  90  75  90  76 /  60  30  80  40
SFB  90  75  90  76 /  60  20  80  30
ORL  90  76  90  76 /  60  30  80  40
FPR  89  75  89  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling