742
FXUS62 KMLB 291100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
700 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northern east central Florida
  today, with heat indices up to 110 degrees. Know the signs and
  symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke!

- A few strong storms will be possible over the next several days,
  as dry air lingers aloft. The main threats will be gusty winds
  to 50-55 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Coverage of showers and storms increases Thursday and into the
  weekend; A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists Thursday
  through Saturday, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today-Tonight...A low pressure system drifts offshore from the
Northeast US coast today, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains
across the Straits of Florida. Locally, the tightening pressure
gradient between the ridge axis and a surface front sagging
through the Southeast will lead to breezy SW winds 10-15 mph, with
gusts 20-25 mph. Deep moisture in place over the Florida peninsula
and SW flow preventing the development of the east coast sea
breeze will support hot and muggy conditions across the area
today. The highest heat indices (up to 110 degrees) are forecast
near and north of the Orlando metro, with a Heat Advisory once
again in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for areas of Orange and
northern Brevard Counties northward. Elsewhere, heat indices
102-107 are forecast to be limited by showers and storms this
afternoon. Regardless, it looks to be another hot July day for the
area, with highs in the lower to mid-90s. Will see little relief
overnight, as low remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Coverage of showers and storms is forecast to be near to slightly
below normal today, as ridging aloft works to counteract mid-
level troughing. Without the east coast sea breeze, CAMs suggest
most activity occurring as a wave of showers and storms, which
develops over the Gulf mid- morning, then pushes eastward through
the afternoon. The highest coverage is expected generally south
of the Orlando metro. PoPs attempt to capture this, with chances
up to 40% in this area. Can`t rule out a stray shower or storm
across the area today, so at least 20% exists area-wide. Similar
to previous days, a few strong storms will be possible, with wind
gusts 50-55 mph. Conditions dry out into the evening and through
most of the overnight. Then, scattered showers and storms (30-60%)
are forecast to move southward through daybreak, mainly north of
I-4, as the front continues southward. Lingering dry air in the
mid levels will again support the risk for a few strong storms,
even overnight tonight.

Thursday-Saturday...A pattern change ends the week, as the surface
frontal boundary stalls in the vicinity of north Florida. Aloft, a
mid/upper level trough digs farther southward towards the
peninsula, as it moves offshore into the Atlantic. While it moves
seaward into the weekend, a series of mid-level shortwaves look to
traverse the local area. Upper level support, the nearby boundary,
and deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3+") is forecast to lead to high
coverage of showers and storms.

Models agreement is somewhat lacking in coverage at times,
without a solid feature (like the sea breeze) to hone in on.
Regardless, PoPs are forecast up to 60-80% and will be highest
initially near and north of the Orlando metro, then spread
southward into Saturday. While not necessarily a washout each day,
multiple rounds of showers and storms will be possible,
especially during the afternoon hours Friday and Saturday.
Convection is even forecast to continue into the overnight hours,
especially from around Melbourne northward. Showers and storms are
forecast to begin the day on Thursday, tapering slightly into the
afternoon. Despite muggy conditions, lingering drier air in the
mid levels will support DCAPE values 800-1000 J/kg. Therefore,
gusty winds 50-55 mph will remain a threat, as well as lightning
strikes. Storms will be efficient rainfall producers, with 1-3"
likely in a short period of time. Any training storms or multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to accumulating minor flooding
concerns each day. Most of east central Florida is highlighted in
a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall each day through the
period.

Breezy SW flow continues Thursday, with winds 10-15 mph and gusty
20-25 mph outside of convection in the afternoon. SW flow slackens
into the weekend, as the pressure gradient relaxes. Nonetheless,
breezy flow will limit or prevent the formation of the east coast
sea breeze each afternoon. High coverage of clouds and
precipitation will moderate temperatures into the lower 90s.
However, peak heat indices 100-105 remain forecast. At night, lows
remain in the 70s, struggling to fall out of the 80s at times,
especially in the Orlando metro.

Sunday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging develops across Florida
Sunday, as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts northward early next
week and drags a bit of Saharan Air Layer into the Florida
peninsula. During this time, the stalled boundary lifts northward
as a warm front, leading to prevailing southerly flow over the
local area. With the boundary drifting farther away from the area,
will see PoPs trend nearer to normal (40-60%) early next week.
However, deep moisture (PWATs 2-2.3") lingering over the area on
Sunday is forecast to support an additional day of high coverage
of showers and storms (60-80%). Convection is expected to peak in
the afternoon, aided by the return of the east coast sea breeze
and its collisions. Hot temperatures in the lower 90s Sunday will
increase a degree or two each day through the period, as coverage
of showers and storms diminishes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Today-Thursday...Poor boating conditions, mainly offshore, through
Thursday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the
Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a stalling boundary near
north Florida. SW winds increase to near 15 kts across the
nearshore waters today and 15-20 kts offshore, where they will
linger into Thursday night. Small craft should exercise caution
over the offshore waters through this period. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms today become scattered to numerous
Thursday into the weekend, increasing the amount of offshore-
moving activity. A few strong storms, with gusts to near 45 kts,
will be possible, be sure to keep an eye to the western sky for
approaching storms. Seas 2-4 ft.

Friday-Monday...High coverage of showers and storms persists
through the weekend, with activity moving eastward and offshore,
especially in the afternoons. Despite this, boating conditions
improve as SW flow slackens to 15 kts or less through Saturday.
The ridge axis moves northward into early next week, backing winds
S. Wind speeds may reach 15-20 kts at times, mainly offshore.
Shower and storm coverage returns to near normal by Monday. Seas
1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Southwest flow around 4-7 kts at sunrise increases to 10-15 kts
through late morning and the afternoon with locally higher gusts.
The east coast sea breeze will not develop today, and a wind shift
is not expected. Rain chances are forecast near to slightly below
normal today with afternoon VCTS wording across portions of the
interior (MCO/ISM/LEE) and at coastal terminals from MLB
southward. Coverage and confidence is too low for PROB30s or
TEMPOs at this time. Mostly dry during the evening and overnight
with high uncertainty in storm chances early Thursday morning.
Have started with a mention of VCTS near sunrise Thursday morning
for Daytona and the Greater Orlando terminals to capture some of
the more aggressive model solutions, but will need to monitor
trends with future TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  77  90  75 /  20  50  60  60
MCO  94  78  91  76 /  30  30  80  50
MLB  93  77  91  76 /  30  20  70  40
VRB  92  75  91  74 /  30  10  50  10
LEE  92  78  89  76 /  30  60  70  60
SFB  94  78  90  77 /  20  50  70  60
ORL  94  78  90  77 /  30  40  80  50
FPR  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Law