600
FXUS62 KMLB 181336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
936 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Isolated, very shallow marine showers continue to push toward the
coast this morning with a few coming ashore. The 10z XMR
sounding, GOES-derived PW and water vapor imagery, and latest RAP
analysis reveal an impressive dry layer above 800mb. CAMs and
medium range guidance suggest that a push of moisture will arrive
this afternoon, supporting slightly greater coverage of showers
and even an isolated storm nearer to the coast. Similar to the
previous forecast, thunder chances will be maximized over the
adjacent Atlantic waters, though some lightning strikes could
occur near and east of I-95. The QPF remains near or less than an
inch along the coast with the highest amounts focused from around
Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast. Local amounts up to
1.5" cannot be discounted.

Based on morning temperature trends, highs today were nudged up
by a degree, especially inland. Quick-hitting heavy downpours
will briefly lower temperatures in any given location, though
overall afternoon highs should push the mid/upper 80s to low 90s
(inland).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few showers pushing onshore this morning, with VCSH for the
coast. Coverage of showers is forecast to increase this afternoon
and into tonight, with -SHRA included at all TAF sites by this
evening. Some MVFR reductions will be possible, especially from
MLB southward, from around 19-21Z. Although, this may need to be
adjusted, as CAMs don`t always handle onshore-moving showers well.
TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but confidence is too low
to include a mention in the TAF. Outside of any showers, breezy to
windy conditions are forecast, with sustained winds up to 15-20kts
this afternoon and gusts 25-30kts. Winds will decrease slightly
after sunset, but remain elevated, especially along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Poor to hazardous boating
conditions with breezy to windy onshore flow through tonight. Wind
speeds generally 15-20 KT across all the waters, increasing to
20-25 KT this afternoon across all the waters. Small Craft
Advisory is in effect across the offshore waters, expanding to the
nearshore waters this afternoon. Seas will be increasing to 5-8ft
in the afternoon, before decreasing slightly overnight to 4-7ft.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are possible this afternoon
and into the evening.

Wednesday-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions
expected to continue through late week as a trough approaches the
Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow
will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT
in the nearshore waters, and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters
through Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week
and into the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to
7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with
seas decreasing to 4-6ft, and 3-4ft on Saturday. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all the Atlantic waters on
Wednesday, and wil likely be extended in time through at least
Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms will be possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  75 /  30  30  50  50
MCO  89  76  88  76 /  40  30  50  30
MLB  88  77  87  77 /  50  50  60  60
VRB  88  76  88  76 /  40  50  60  60
LEE  91  77  91  75 /  30  30  40  20
SFB  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  50  40
ORL  90  76  89  76 /  40  30  50  30
FPR  88  76  87  75 /  40  40  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy