304
FXUS62 KMLB 170611
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
  weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
  local Atlantic waters today, with only minor improvement
  expected over the weekend

- Mostly rain-free conditions over the next week, with only
  limited opportunities for coastal showers this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025
A weak backdoor front continues to progress southward down the
peninsula early this morning, aided by high pressure building toward
the Mid-Atlantic region. Locally, sufficient low-level moisture
within the lowest 150 mb of the atmosphere is maintaining scattered
clouds and a few embedded showers within stout northeast flow.
Upstream, GOES precipitable water shows considerably drier air
filtering down the eastern seaboard, ranging from about 1.10"
locally, to as low as 0.40" offshore the Carolinas. Models are in
good agreement that this drier air will advect into the area over
the next 12 to 24 hours, with precipitable water values dropping to
around 0.70-0.80" tonight (around the climatological minimum for
October). Any remaining clouds and shower activity should be
scoured out by late morning, resulting in a pleasant, mostly sunny
day. Northeast winds will keep afternoon temperatures within a
degree or two of seasonal averages.

High pressure shifts offshore the Carolinas this weekend as a
potentially negatively-tilted trough advances from the Ohio Valley
to the Great Lakes. Winds are forecast to veer through the period
and steadily lessen, eventually turning out of the south by Sunday.
Low-level moisture will gradually re-build, resulting in more
coastal clouds, and perhaps a few showers pushing ashore from the
Atlantic. Still, coverage and intensity of said showers are expected
to remain quite low, so a silent 10% PoP should suffice for now.
Temperatures will bottom out Saturday morning before steadily
recovering into the mid, to perhaps upper, 80s on Sunday.

Though the surf and weather may look more inviting than the past two
weekends, onshore flow and a developing long-period swell will
maintain a high risk of rip currents through at least Sunday.
Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the
ocean!

The aforementioned trough will shift toward the northeastern U.S.
early next week as its trailing surface front attempts to push
through the area Sunday night, before stalling across South
Florida. Moisture recovery and low-level convergence appear
minimal along and ahead of the boundary, so deep convection
appears highly unlikely. Suspect no more than a few showers will
accompany the front, so, opted to insert a low 10% PoP for now.
High pressure attempts to fill in on Tuesday before a secondary
front moves across the area Wednesday. Limited cooling is
advertised early next week, with temperatures still at or above
normal over most of the area. More seasonable temperatures are
forecast by midweek behind the second front, along with slightly
drier air.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025
High pressure building toward the Mid Atlantic states will
maintain stout northeast flow between 15 to 20 knots today. Poor
to hazardous seas will result, up to 7 ft offshore and within the
Gulf Stream. Seas lessen some overnight, but remain poor offshore,
as winds veer to the east and drop to 10 - 15 knots.

Winds relax this weekend while veering from the east (Saturday)
to the southeast (Sunday) ahead of the next front. Seas will be
slow to improve, remaining between 4 to 5 feet, before a longer
period swell briefly builds seas back up to 6 feet offshore
Sunday. A weak front is expected to stall near or just south of
the area early next week, resulting in lighter, and more variable,
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025
VFR conditions prevailing with cloud CIGs 040-070 AGL at times.
Isolated SHRA will push onshore the coast remainder of the
overnight so have maintained VCSH at coastal terminals.
Increasingly drier air advection towards sunrise should limit
shower development into the morning hours, with mainly dry
conditions through Friday. Onshore (NE) winds persist at coastal
terminals overnight with a lighter north wind interior terminals
(MCO). NE winds once again increase 10-15 kts aft 14Z Fri across
all terminals, gusting up to 20 kts esp along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  81  63 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  83  63  82  64 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  82  67  81  67 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  82  67  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  84  61  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  62  82  63 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  83  63  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ulrich
AVIATION...Kelly