313
FXUS62 KMLB 221047
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
647 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Drier air will lead to lower than normal shower and storm
  chances through through at least Thursday. Increasing moisture
  into late week and through the weekend will then allow rain
  chances to return to near normal values.

- Near to above-normal afternoon temperatures will persist through
  the period with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each day.
  Practicing heat safety will be key to avoid heat-related
  illness!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Thursday... Upper level ridging across the Plains and the Deep
South will stay in place through the time period. At the surface,
high pressure across the Atlantic will strengthen and continue to
build across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, with the ridge
axis lifting northward. This will allow Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha
to move westward along to just south of the northern Gulf Coast
through midweek. Locally, winds will weaken as the ridge axis
moves northward and the winds gradually become more onshore, with
S/SE winds today and E/SE winds on Thursday. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form each day and move inland, which will
turn the winds more onshore behind the sea breeze.

Drier air will settle over the area, with forecast PW values ranging
from 1.5-1.7", which will result in reduced rain chances through the
period. Lower than normal rain chances are forecast, with a low to
medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms today and
a low (20 percent) chance on Thursday. Highest coverage of storms
today will be around the Lake Okeechobee area during the afternoon,
and then focused west of Orlando with the sea breeze collision near
to after sunset. Due to the more dominate onshore flow on Thursday,
highest coverage will be across the western interior in the
afternoon/early evening. Some storms may be strong. Forecast
soundings support this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg), drier air aloft, Steep low-level lapse rates, and sufficient
downdraft potential (DCAPE  700-1200 J/kg). Because of this, the
main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, and gusty
winds to 50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be near to above normal, with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 90s, with more widespread mid 90s across the
interior, each afternoon. Due to the drier air aloft, dewpoints
should be lower as mixing increases into the afternoon. This will
allow peak heat indices to reach 100-107F, which remains below Heat
Advisory criteria. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight,
with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s each night.

Friday-Monday...  Upper level high pressure over the Plains and the
Deep South will remain in place as a trough over the Midwest shifts
eastward towards the Atlantic coast and digs southward towards the
FLorida into the weekend and early next week. At the surface, the
Atlantic high pressure will shift southward through the weekend as a
low pressure system pushes off the coast of the Carolinas. An
associated frontal boundary will dig through the Deep South into
late week and into northern Florida before stalling over the
weekend. The front will then drift slowly southward into early next
week as it weakens. There remains some uncertainty with how far
south this boundary will go before it stalls. Locally, lingering dry
air across the north on Friday will keep rain chances limited, with
moisture increasing across the south, causing a return of near to
above normal rain chances. Moisture will continue to increase across
the area this weekend, with shower and lightning storm activity
primarily being driven by sea breeze interactions/collisions.
Offshore (westerly) flow will also return this weekend and continue
into the next week, which will favor higher coverage of storms
across the eastern side of the peninsula near the coast. Monday,
rain and storm chances will be near to normal areawide as deep
moisture from the decaying boundary reaches the local area, with
near to above normal rain and storm chances on Tuesday as lingering
moisture is aided by normal sea breeze interactions/collisions. Any
lingering showers and storms will diminish each evening through the
overnight hours. However, isolated to scattered showers will remain
possible across the Atlantic waters each night.

A slight warming trend is forecast through the weekend, with above
normal temperatures forecast through Sunday. Current guidance
indicates that increasing cloud coverage and rain chances will help
keep temperatures closer to normal Monday and Tuesday. Peak heat
indices will generally be 100-107F, with some locations potentially
nearing Heat Advisory criteria, especially over the weekend.
Confidence in this remains low however, so will continue to monitor.
Lows will generally be in the 70s each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Sunday... TS Bertha is forecast to continue to move
westward near to just south of the northern Gulf coast through
midweek. South to southeast winds will persist through Thursday,
with speeds of 10- 15 KT each day, although winds may increase to
near 20 KT in the nearshore Volusia waters this afternoon/evening.
The pressure gradient will then loosen into the late week/weekend
as the Atlantic high pressure extends back across the region
through late week and then shifts southward into the weekend,
resulting in wind speeds generally around 10 KT. Winds will shift
east to southeast on Friday, southerly on Saturday, and west to
southwest on Sunday. However the east coast sea breeze is forecast
to form each day, turning the winds E/SE each afternoon. Seas
1-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through
late week, with moisture increasing Friday into the weekend,
resulting in a gradual rise in rain and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conds outside of lower than normal diurnal convective chances.
Light southerly winds "back" SE/ESE and increase 8-13 kts with
some higher gusts as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland. VCSH
aft 21Z/22Z for inland terminals with VCTS possible if confidence
increases. For now have avoided the urge to introduce "Vicinity"
wording for Treasure Coast terminals, though do feel there will be
better chance southward inland from the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  96  77  97  76 /  20  10  20   0
MLB  91  77  90  77 /  20   0  10   0
VRB  91  76  91  77 /  20   0  10  10
LEE  95  78  95  77 /  20  30  20   0
SFB  95  77  95  77 /  20   0  10   0
ORL  95  77  95  77 /  20  10  10   0
FPR  91  75  91  77 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock