030
FXUS62 KMLB 161844
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all east central Florida
  counties through 8 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to 112F.
  Practice heat safety!

- Heat concerns persist across east central Florida over the next
  couple of days thanks to above-normal afternoon highs and peak
  heat indices nearing or reaching Heat Advisory criteria.

- Increasing moisture will promote a more seasonable pattern of
  scattered showers and storms areawide from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicates a sharp moisture
gradient across central Florida this afternoon with values ranging
2.0-2.1" from Cape Canaveral and Orlando northward and as low as
1.5" further south through Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Isolated showers have developed within the deepest moisture across
north-cental Florida as the east and west coast sea breezes move
inland. Expect more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
near and north of a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee through the
afternoon and evening, driven by increased surface heating and a few
boundary interactions. A few strong storms which may develop will be
capable of wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and locally
heavy rainfall. Otherwise, hot conditions continue with highs on
track to reach the mid to upper 90s across the interior, and a Heat
Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for peak heat index
values of 108-112F. Isolated convection along the sea breeze
collision may linger into the evening, but dry conditions are
expected overnight. Low temperatures should mostly range the mid
to upper 70s.

Monday... Hot conditions continue as ridging holds mostly stagnant
aloft. At the surface, a ridge axis shifts south of the area as a
weak frontal boundary sinks into the southeast U.S. This will favor
light offshore flow, turning southeast as a delayed sea breeze
develops in the afternoon. Above normal temperatures persist with
highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat index values widely
ranging 106-110F will likely prompt the need for another Heat
Advisory. Moisture advecting southward through the Orlando Metro
should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
(20-45%), providing some relief from the heat late in the day. A few
strong storms which develop will be capable of isolated wind gusts
35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and torrential downpours. Drier air to
the south should limit rain chances to less than 20% across much of
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure in the mid levels gradually
broadens through late week as troughing digs across the midwest
and into the eastern U.S. The surface ridge axis remains mostly
south of the area, perhaps inching northward towards Lake
Okeechobee late in the period. Offshore flow should maintain hot
conditions, especially through Wednesday, as highs continue in the
mid 90s across the interior with localized areas reaching the
upper 90s. Temperatures then show a decreasing trend, finally
returning closer to normal late week. Moisture continues to advect
southward into Tuesday, prompting a more seasonal pattern of
scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%) areawide each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A surface ridge axis slides south of the local waters on Monday.
This will lead to a period of prevailing light offshore flow,
shifting south to southeast late each day as the sea breeze
develops. Seas of 1-2 ft build up to 3 ft offshore Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms will be possible
north of the Cape on Monday, while remaining mostly dry further
south. Moisture continues to spread southward on Tuesday prompting
higher coverage (40-60%) of offshore moving storms areawide
through late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly VFR, as rain chances remain below normal today (around
20-30%), and are limited to areas north of Okeechobee County and
the Treasure Coast. Still, isolated to low end scattered showers
and storms will develop, especially from KMCO/KISM to KTIX
northward. Have added 3-hour PROB30 groups for TSRA impacting
terminals for these northern TAF sites between 18-23Z, and a TEMPO
group for TSRA at KDAB where showers are already starting to
develop with the sea breeze from 18-20Z. Isolated strong storms
possible, with frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall the main impacts. Convection will diminish through
the evening through 00-01Z, with dry conditions overnight.

Winds will be somewhat variable, but a general westerly flow is
forecast around 5-7 knots ahead of the sea breeze. As east coast
sea breeze moves inland winds pick up out of the E/SE around 8-10
knots. East coast sea breeze looks to make it as far inland as
the I-4 corridor late afternoon/toward sunset, where sea breeze
collision is favored.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site          Aug 16     Aug 17
Daytona     97  (2023)  96  (1990)
Leesburg    96  (2011)  98  (2005)
Sanford     97  (2023)  97  (2005)
Orlando     101 (1918)  99  (1929)
Melbourne   96  (2022)  97  (2022)
Vero Beach  96  (2022)  98  (2022)
Fort Pierce 97  (1948)  97  (2022)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  78  94 /  10  50  10  60
MCO  78  97  78  96 /  30  20  20  60
MLB  78  95  78  95 /  10  10  20  60
VRB  76  95  76  94 /   0  10  20  50
LEE  78  95  79  95 /  10  30  20  60
SFB  78  95  79  95 /  20  40  20  60
ORL  79  96  80  95 /  30  20  20  60
FPR  76  95  77  94 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich