112
FXUS62 KMLB 100644
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
244 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect again today for all of east central
  Florida from 11AM to 8PM for peak heat indices up to 110.

- Hot again Saturday, especially across the north where high
  temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices near
  Heat Advisory criteria (106-110), with widespread Major to
  Extreme HeatRisk impacts.

- Below normal rain chances 30 percent or less continue today,
  then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30 to 60 percent
  from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today-Sat...Deep layer high pressure at the sfc and aloft will
maintain a suppressed atmosphere resulting in above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Humidity will produce peak
heat indices up to 110 today which has prompted another Heat
Advisory for all of east central Florida from late morning through
the early evening. Some increase in moisture from the south (PWATS
~2") will produce a little higher coverage across Okeechobee/
interior Treasure coast this afternoon (up to 30%) which should
weaken as it lifts north into a tongue of drier air over Orlando
metro and Volusia. Bulk of the diurnal convection today should be
on the west side of the peninsula, possibly grazing Lake county.
Continued moisture advection Sat on southerly flow will push rain
chances back toward typical summer values between 40-60%. Storms
will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall.

Sun-Thu...Upper trough is forecast to develop over the NE US and
push a cool front into the deep South by Tue where it will stall
and dissipate. Moisture assocd with the front should bring an
increase in rain/storm chances Tue/Wed and possibly a little
relief from the heat. Strong mid level ridge (heat dome) over the
northern MS Valley/western Great Lakes will then expand into the
SE US but bifurcate and weaken some as it does so. But building
heat looks to return late next week with a more westerly flow
delaying/inhibiting sea breeze development. Max temps forecast in
the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 102-107 each day, with
widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through Tue of next week
as Atlc high pressure ridge remains in the vicinity. This will
produce a south to southwest flow 7-10 knots, turning SE each
afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze at 10-14 knots.
A slight nocturnal surge of S/SW flow 14-18KT will occur each
evening offshore. Seas will be 1-2 feet, except up to 3 ft Volusia
waters in the eve/overnight assocd with the brief surge. A gradual
increase in moisture from the south will produce up to a 30%
chance for showers and lightning storms across the far southern
waters today; otherwise, 20% or less north of St Lucie Inlet. Then
chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) this the weekend into
early next week, especially near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning
storms. Light and variable winds are forecast to increase from the
SW at 5-10kts before backing SE into the aftn/eve at 6-12kts.
Winds will become light and variable overnight. VCTS is forecast
after 21Z/22Z and before 01/02Z. The potential exists for a strong
storm or two.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Sat:

Site           July 10     July 11
Daytona       97 (2010)   98 (1980)
Leesburg      97 (2016)   97 (2016)
Sanford       97 (2007)   99 (1969)
Orlando       99 (1980)   98 (1989)
Melbourne     98 (1964)   97 (2010)
Vero Beach    97 (2022)   96 (2020)
Fort Pierce   96 (1981)   99 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  77  95  77 /  20  30  10  10
MCO  98  77  98  77 /  20  30  20  10
MLB  93  77  92  78 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  94  77  93  77 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  97  79  97  79 /  30  30  20  20
SFB  97  77  97  77 /  20  30  10  10
ORL  97  78  97  78 /  20  30  10  10
FPR  93  76  92  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling