862
FXUS62 KMLB 311055
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106

- Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly
  winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from
  this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening
  rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
  remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure
  Coast.

- There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4)
  for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through
  Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5
  inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a
  flooded road.

- Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open
  Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Mid-level ridging is parked atop the Sunshine State this morning. A
broad area of above-normal H5 heights extends over the eastern half
of the U.S. In the polar jet stream, a shortwave over New England
is responsible for reinforcing a continental high-pressure system
over the Great Lakes. In the West, a longwave trough axis sits
just offshore of California. Additional shortwave energy, on the
nose of the subtropical jet, is located over Texas.

By Sunday evening, the surface high should move into the
Mid-Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over Florida yet
again. Meanwhile, the mid-level shortwave currently over Texas is
expected to reach the northeastern Gulf and/or Florida. Guidance
has continued to trend slower with the arrival of this feature. A
surface reflection, most likely in the form of a weak trough, may
attempt to form over the eastern Gulf by Sunday evening. Enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is anticipated to coincide with a
broad area of upper-level jet diffluence, especially from Sunday
night into Monday morning. During this period, total moisture
(PWAT) is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology
over Florida.

This disturbance is forecast to weaken by Tuesday as it crawls
eastward. By Wednesday night, cluster analysis of the 30/12Z
ensemble suite shows another shortwave trough axis approaching the
Mississippi Valley. With additional jet stream energy on its heels,
guidance suggests this trough will begin to weaken as it reaches
the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This portends a rather unimpressive
cold frontal passage for Florida sometime on Thursday. Somewhat
drier air is still likely to reach the state once it passes.

The subtropical jet is forecast to become quasi-zonal over the
Southern U.S. late next week and into the following weekend. Global
ensembles indicate a weak ridge developing near Florida, maintaining
above-normal H85 (5 kft) temperatures. The next signal appears
to be a southern stream trough entering the Desert Southwest next
weekend. It is not expected to reach Florida until at least Monday
the 9th.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Unfortunately, high-res guidance has struggled with the pesky band
of showers that has remained over portions of the Treasure Coast the
last 12 hours or so. We expect that periodic showers will continue
to stream off of the Atlantic, especially for areas south of Cape
Canaveral today. Rain chances range from 10-30% northwest of I-4
to 50-60% from Melbourne southward. Lightning chances remain low
(<25%). Showers that repeatedly affect the same areas may drop 1-3"
on a very isolated basis, so we will continue to monitor trends
for localized flooding.

East-northeast winds increase a bit today as the gradient tightens
up. Expect occasional gusts from 20-30 mph this afternoon. This
will continue to generate rough surf and numerous, life-threatening
rip currents at Atlantic beaches. A High Surf Advisory will go
into effect at 5 PM today. Please refrain from entering the ocean.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with the
midday high tide mainly from near St. Lucie Inlet and points
southward into Martin County.

Warm and muggy today with highs in the low/mid 80s.

Sunday - Monday...

As mentioned in the overview, several factors favor widespread
coverage (60-80%) of showers with a few storms (20-30%). Sunday may
not be a washout for all of the area, however, as the disturbance
responsible for the active weather is moving in a bit slower. We
anticipate the greatest areal coverage of rain sometime later
Sunday through midday Monday.

The influx of energy and moisture, combined with frictional
convergence and some instability emerging off the Atlantic, favor
the I-95 corridor for training bands of heavy rain. To make matters
worse, much of the Treasure Coast is nearly saturated from recent
rains. Through Monday night, most likely rainfall tallies of 1
to 3 inches are forecast for much of east central Florida, with a
5-10% chance of localized 5" or greater totals. Where these higher
amounts fall in a shorter timeframe, flash flooding could result.

Easterly winds will be strongest on Sunday, with gusts up to 30
mph. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect on Sunday at all
Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Additionally, another round of
minor coastal flooding is forecast south of St. Lucie Inlet with
the early afternoon high tide cycle, especially on Sunday. The
high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist into early
next week.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but
above-normal moisture is forecast to remain in place. Shower chances
will continue, with 30-40% coverage expected. Storm chances remain
low, at 20% or less. A cold front is slated to get here sometime on
Thursday or Thursday night, albeit on a weakening trend. A thin line
of showers and isolated storms may accompany the boundary. Severe
weather potential still looks quite limited.

Remaining warm, with highs in the low/mid 80s.

Friday - Next Weekend...

There is some disagreement with how much dry air will be advected
over Florida behind the cold front late this week, and appreciable
cold advection should be stymied by progressive zonal flow. The
favored scenario is a clean enough frontal passage for mostly dry,
pleasant weather during this timeframe. Warm afternoons and
somewhat cooler nights would prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106

As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this
weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the
adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will
result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday
night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A
disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous
showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday.

Small Craft Advisories continue for all but the nearshore Volusia
waters this morning, but even that zone will go beneath the advisory
by this afternoon. ENE winds 15-25 kts by this afternoon, lasting
through Sunday. Seas building to 6-9 ft from this afternoon into
Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E
winds taper to 15-20 kt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

On and off showers are forecast through the TAF period with ENE
flow. TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs exist between 12Z-13Z at KTIX
and KSUA, as well as between 17Z/18Z-21Z/22Z for MVFR CIGs at KMLB
southwards. Expect ENE winds at 6-12kts with gusts up to 18kts to
increase after 14Z with gusts up to 20kts-25kts before gradually
weakening tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  73  80  70 /  10  20  60  70
MCO  84  72  80  70 /  30  40  70  70
MLB  83  74  81  71 /  50  50  70  80
VRB  84  74  83  72 /  60  50  80  80
LEE  84  71  80  69 /  10  30  60  70
SFB  83  72  81  71 /  20  30  70  70
ORL  84  73  80  71 /  20  30  70  70
FPR  84  75  82  72 /  60  50  80  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Fehling