994
FXUS62 KMLB 311858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly
  winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from
  this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening
  rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
  remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure
  Coast.

- There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4)
  for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through
  Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5
  inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a
  flooded road.

- Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open
  Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current-Tonight... High pressure building over the eastern U.S. has
continued a persistent pattern of gusty easterly winds and rounds of
isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers. Despite cloudy
conditions, temperatures have climbed a few degrees above normal,
mostly in the low to mid 80s, and added humidity has produced peak
heat index values in the upper 80s and low 90s. Looking toward the
evening, expect mild temperatures in the mid 70s alongside a few
quick passing showers for any Halloween plans. Wind gusts up to 20
mph will be possible at times, particularly near the coast.

Building seas and rough surf are expected at local beaches this
afternoon and evening. A High Surf Advisory takes effect at 5PM
as large breaking waves increase to 5-7 ft through the overnight
period. A high risk of rip currents continues.

Sunday-Monday... Increasing moisture coupled with a passing
disturbance aloft will drive a wet, unsettled period. Continued,
breezy onshore flow should favor scattered onshore-moving showers
early Sunday. Coverage of scattered to numerous showers and an
occasional storm builds through the afternoon and evening as pulses
of shortwave energy begin to pass aloft. Moderate to high rain
chances then continue through the night Sunday and into Monday.
Continuing to monitor a heavy rainfall threat through this period as
high-res ensemble means begin to show localized accumulations of 3-
5 inches and 90th percentile values exceeding 5-7+ inches. A Slight
Risk of Excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day,
extending through portions of the interior, including the Orlando
Metro on Monday.

In addition to wet conditions, a number of coastal hazards will
remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip
currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf.
Entering the water is not advised! While coastal flooding concerns
continue to slowly ease, model guidance at Lake Worth Pier continue
to run near Moderate Flood Stage during the afternoon high tide
cycle, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through at least
Sunday afternoon.

Cloudy conditions and increased rain chances will keep afternoon
temperatures slightly below seasonal values, ranging the upper 70s
and low 80s. Sunday morning temperatures remain mild in the low to
mid 70s, warmest along the coast. A few degrees cooler Monday
morning, mostly in the low 70s.

Tuesday-Friday... A cold front tracks across the central U.S. into
mid week, finally pushing a persistent area of high pressure
offshore the eastern U.S. How the synoptic pattern then evolves
becomes more uncertain as major deterministic models begin to
diverge. Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but
deep moisture should generally persist through at least Tuesday,
continuing moderate rain chances. Reductions in rain chances are
forecast into the following days as a drier air mass advects across
the local area. High temperatures mostly in the mid 80s fall to
mostly range the low 80s by the end of the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

previous modified...

As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this
weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the
adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will
result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday
night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A
disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous
showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the local
Atlantic waters. ENE winds 15-25 kts last through Sunday. Seas build
to 6-9 ft into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7
ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A weak east coast sea breeze is enhancing onshore flow a bit this
afternoon, producing winds around 15 kts gusting to around 25 kts.
ISO-SCT SHRA have develop in this flow, producing brief MVFR CIGS
and IFR VIS reductions. Guidance is indicating a loosely
organized and persistent band of SHRA may develop across portions
of ECFL from later this afternoon into the overnight. Keeping
with VC mention at most TAFs, but have continued or added
TEMPOs/PROB30s at KTIX- KSUA with some timing adjustment due to
chances for more frequent/prolonged impacts. Winds ease to 8-13
kts overnight, closer to the higher end with continued gusts to
around 20 kts along the coast, then pick back up again after 14Z
Sunday. ISO-SCT SHRA forecast to continue into Sunday morning, the
SHRA become SCT-NUM with ISO TSRA after 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  80  70  79 /  10  50  60  70
MCO  72  79  70  80 /  40  70  60  60
MLB  74  80  72  80 /  60  80  70  70
VRB  75  82  72  82 /  60  70  80  70
LEE  71  80  69  81 /  30  60  50  50
SFB  72  80  70  81 /  20  50  60  60
ORL  73  80  70  80 /  30  60  60  60
FPR  75  81  72  81 /  50  70  80  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley