019
FXUS62 KMLB 281900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for northern east central Florida
  today and tomorrow with heat indices up to 110 degrees.

- The potential exists for strong storms today and tomorrow, as
  well as strong to severe storms on Thursday for areas of east
  central Florida

- Increasing coverage of showers and storms late week and into the
  weekend; Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday through
  Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery showers east moving
scattered showers and lightning storms over east central Florida
to the south of the Orlando Metro. GOES-16 satellite imagery and
local observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew
points in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, in addition to heat
index values up to 100-109F degrees. Analysis charts show a
mid/upper level trough over the southwest Atlantic and northern
Florida with areas of PVA embedded within the base of the trough.
Additionally, the Atlantic ridge is positioned well to the east-southeast
of east central Florida.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7PM for Lake, Volusia,
Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard county this evening.
Isolated to scattered generally east moving showers (20-60%
chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage
into the late afternoon and evening hours. The greatest chance for
showers and lightning storms are along the Orlando Metro and to
the south. WSW winds at 5-10mph are forecast to back onshore with
the east coast sea breeze mainly north of the Treasure Coast to
the east of the Orlando Metro into this evening. WSW winds at
5-10mph are forecast to back onshore with the east coast sea
breeze mainly north of the Treasure Coast to the east of the
Orlando Metro into this evening. The potential exists for isolated
strong storms today capable of producing wind gusts up to
40-50mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in
30-60mins). Rain chances are expected to diminish towards sunset.
Above normal (1-4+ degrees) lows in the mid to upper 70s are
forecast.


Wednesday-Thursday... Drier air is expected tomorrow with an
increase in WSW flow and no east coast sea breeze. WSW winds are
expected to increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are
forecast to develop in the afternoon and evening with the greatest
chance for showers and storms again along and to the south of the
Orlando Metro. The potential exists for isolated strong storms
capable of producing wind gusts up to 40-50mph, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60mins). Afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday. A Heat
Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 8PM for heat index up to 110F
degrees for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard
county Wednesday. Moisture will increase on Thursday with PWATs up
to 2.0-2.5" as a stationary boundary sags south across the
southern US. Remember to practice heat safety which includes
shifting work away from the hours of 10AM-4PM, wear light
clothing, drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks from
the heat.

Guidance is not in good agreement on the timing of
showers and storms on Thursday. The CAMs aren`t showing much
except for the HRRR, however, the global models are in decent
agreement on a line of showers and storms tracking southeast
across east central Florida early Thursday morning. however, it
appears there will be two potential time periods for strong to
severe storms to develop on Thursday. The first will be early
Thursday morning after 12AM and generally before 8AM with
additional development into the afternoon and evening hours.
Instability is expected to be high with MLCAPE up to 1,500-3,800
J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 15-40kts, and a LLJ up to 25-30kts,
especially Thursday afternoon and evening. The SPC has outlooked
northern Lake and Volusia counties with a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for severe storms early Thursday morning. The main hazards
are wind gusts up to 60mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall
(1-3" in 30-60mins with a 1 in 10 chance of totals in excess of 3"
up to 3-6"). A Marginal Risk (5-14% risk) for Excessive Rainfall
exists for much of east central Floria on Thursday with the
potential for flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. Slightly
cooler temperatures are expected with the increase in rain chances
and cloud cover. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and
above normal lows (1-4F+ degrees) in the mid to upper 70s are
forecast.

Friday-Monday... A relatively active weather pattern is expected
with a stationary boundary over the southern US with the NBM
probability of precipitation (PoPs) remaining high through the
weekend. However, the trend for the most part has been for the NBM
to have too high of PoPs in the extended forecast and MOS data
suggests that is likely the case this weekend with offshore flow
and no sea breeze. Scattered to numerous showers (60%-90%
chance) and lightning storms are forecast on Friday with rain
chances gradually diminishing through the weekend and into next
week. Global models suggests the potential for strong to severe
storms Friday and Saturday with areas of PVA pivoting across east
central Florida coupled with high instability and a LLJ up to
25kts. Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are
forecast with near to above normal low temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Currently-Tonight... Boating conditions are expected to become
hazardous for the offshore waters (20-60nm). Isolated to scattered
offshore moving showers and lightning storms are forecast through
this evening with isolated storms capable of wind gusts to
34kts or greater. West-southwest winds are expected to increase
at 15-20kts offshore and 10-15kts tonight into Wednesday morning.
Seas to 2-3ft are expected. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous discussion)... Winds to
around 15-20kts are forecast offshore Wednesday before reaching
and then returns to near 15 kts Thursday. Seas build to 2-4 ft
with up to 5 ft north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Lower
than normal coverage of showers and storms will become above
normal by Thursday. The potential exists for strong storms on
Wednesday with the potential for strong to severe storms on
Thursday-Saturday. Boating conditions improve into Friday and over
the weekend as SW flow diminishes to 10-15 kts. Seas are expected
to return to 1-3 ft. However, high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms persists through the weekend. Boaters should remain
alert for offshore- moving storms, especially in the afternoons
and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and storms ongoing this afternoon, mainly around
Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Southwest winds around 10
KT, gusting to around 20 KT at times mainly along the coast, will
shift south to south- southeast along the immediate coast as the
sea breeze struggles to move inland this afternoon. Additional scattered
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with
the latest CAM guidance showing the highest coverage into this
evening will be from MCO to TIX southward. VCTS remains mentioned
at all sites but DAB after 18Z/19Z. Have added TEMPOs for MCO,
ISM, TIX and MLB where the greatest coverage looks to be from
20-23Z for MVFR conditions. Have maintained PROB30s at
VRB/FPR (20Z-23Z). Any lingering activity will diminish after 00Z
with mostly dry conditions forecast. Southwest winds will become
light overnight before increasing to 10 KT or less by mid morning
on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  95  77  90 /  10  20  50  70
MCO  77  94  78  91 /  10  40  50  70
MLB  77  93  77  90 /  10  30  30  70
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  78  93  78  90 /  10  30  60  70
SFB  78  94  79  91 /  10  30  50  70
ORL  78  93  78  90 /  10  40  50  70
FPR  74  92  75  91 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-
     144-247-347-447.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson