561
FXUS62 KMLB 311040
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
640 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Above-normal coverage of showers and storms continues through
  the weekend. A few strong storms are forecast, capable of
  producing gusty winds up to around 45 mph, frequent lightning,
  and torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding.

- Unsettled weather slowly transitions toward more normal
  summertime conditions by next Tuesday or Wednesday as high
  pressure builds over the state.

- Seasonably hot conditions each day ahead of the storms. Very
  muggy, with peak heat indices up to around 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains situated at the base of a mid-level trough along
the Eastern Seaboard. Upstream, an additional disturbance over
the Missouri Valley is pushing toward the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile,
anomalous H5 ridging extends from the W Caribbean Sea to the
Mojave Desert. The surface Bermuda high remains centered just
south of the Florida Peninsula. To its north, a quasi-stationary
front is parked from offshore of Cape Hatteras to near Montgomery,
AL. This has focused a reservoir of tropical moisture, with PWAT
values exceeding 2 inches over Florida and the northern Gulf Coast.

Through this weekend, the shortwave over the Upper Midwest is
expected to deepen into a longwave trough over the Mississippi
River Valley. On its eastern flank, vorticity perturbations will
emanate from the NE Gulf, skirting close to Central Florida. Broad
southwesterly flow persists, sending copious moisture over the
state.

Early next week, global ensembles suggest the trough will begin to
fill. Beyond Wednesday (8/5), the large H5 anticyclones over the
Four Corners and W Atlantic should attempt to bridge into a large
ridge axis extending roughly along 35 N latitude. Should this occur,
the near-surface high pressure axis would also move northward,
allowing E/SE flow to return off the Atlantic. However, a glance
at 30/12Z cluster analysis revealed low confidence in the strength
of the ridge over the SE U.S. by late next week. This introduces
uncertainty regarding how far northward the surface ridge axis will
travel, which will affect the available moisture and dominant sea
breeze patterns that dictate convective coverage by that time.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A compact area of thunderstorms along the Nature Coast is slowly
progressing toward the SE this morning, its debris showers
clipping portions of Lake and Orange counties. Low rain/storm
chances (20-40%) are in the forecast to account for this. This
sustained overnight activity is somewhat unusual for summertime,
indicating that forcing remains in place and continues to interact
with the high moisture overhead.

It is quite difficult to pinpoint the impulses sparking these
rounds of showers and storms. With a trough axis immediately
to our north, it is likely that another round will develop from
midday into the afternoon. West-southwest flow will continue to
favor more activity on the eastern half of the peninsula. Model
proximity soundings support some stronger storms again today,
with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph, and
perhaps even some coin-sized hail. Shear remains weak, limiting
sustained organization of storms. However, repeated bands of
storms interacting with the rich moisture can produce excessive
rainfall in a hurry. REFS 95th percentile rainfall tallies of 3+
inches in 6 hours support this isolated flooding threat.

Highs today should be close to normal in the lower 90s, with peak
heat indices from 100 to 105. Later tonight, only low rain and
storm chances linger amid warm and muggy conditions.

Weekend - Monday...

Those planning to be outdoors this weekend should keep their
umbrellas (and backup plans) ready to go. A rinse-and-repeat
pattern continues for Central FL as moisture pools over the state
and southwesterly flow pushes scattered to numerous storms (60-80%)
toward the eastern half of the peninsula by afternoon/evening. The
presence of weak disturbances aloft may also act as triggers
for storms earlier in the day or lingering into the night. Will
continue to monitor for wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent lightning,
and multiple rounds of heavy rain, leading to localized flooding in
urban and poorly drained locales. Beachgoers and boaters should keep
an eye on the western sky for dark clouds and approaching storms.

Seasonably warm high temps in the lower 90s should prevail each day.

Tuesday - Next Friday...

A transition back to more typical summertime weather is expected
during this period as offshore flow relaxes and high pressure pushes
overhead. Afternoon and evening storms should become driven by the
sea breeze circulation once again, rather than synoptic triggers. As
background winds become light and onshore, the Atlantic sea breeze
should become more dominant and push westward. This should focus
maximum rain and storm coverage deeper into the interior. Near- to
above-normal moisture is expected to persist, leading to localized
heavy rain and gusty wind potential from the strongest storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The local Atlantic sits between a stationary front over South
Georgia and the western Atlantic high-pressure axis over the Florida
Straits. Persistent offshore flow through the weekend will interact
with weak disturbances to produce rounds of offshore-moving showers
and storms. Gusty winds are anticipated with this activity. The
high should begin to lift northward by the middle of next week,
and a return of the daily sea breeze circulation is likely.

South-southwest winds with speeds less than 12 kt through Saturday
morning. From late Saturday into Sunday, a subtle wind surge
occurs with S/SW winds 10-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore through the
weekend, up to 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream from Saturday night
through early Monday, especially north of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Isold SHRA moving east may affect DAB/SFB/LEE and even MCO early
this morning so have started off with VCSH there. Another round
of scattered to numerous showers and storms will form later this
morning and push eastward affecting many terminals including MCO
during the early to mid afternoon then push offshore. The latest
HRRR model outputs looks too slow with convective timing and have
bumped up TEMPO groups starting with 16Z at LEE and 17Z at
MCO/SFB. The east coast sea breeze will likely develop but
remained pinned to the coast. While not depicting a wind shift at
coastal terminals, storms may fire along the sea breeze MLB-SUA
during the early to mid afternoon so have inserted a TEMPO there.
One or more terminals could see a 2nd round of TSRA (such as DAB)
in the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  90  74 /  70  40  80  20
MCO  91  75  91  75 /  70  30  80  30
MLB  91  75  90  75 /  70  30  80  10
VRB  91  73  90  73 /  70  30  80  10
LEE  90  75  89  75 /  70  40  80  40
SFB  91  75  91  75 /  70  40  80  20
ORL  91  76  90  76 /  70  30  80  20
FPR  91  73  90  73 /  70  30  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly