034
FXUS62 KMLB 242320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through this
  weekend and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions are forecast this weekend and early next
  week.

- Increasing rain chances are forecast through the weekend. Minor
  flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of showers
  and the potential for training bands of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure holds influence over much of the
eastern U.S. today. Increasing northeast winds are observed on the
south side of the high pressure this afternoon with may areas of
central Florida seeing peak gusts exceeding 20-25 mph so far
today. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for portions of the
coast including Volusia and northern Brevard, before extending
southward through the remainder of the coast this evening as wind
gusts increase to 35 mph. Onshore moving showers have been ongoing
through much of the morning and have shown an increase in
coverage north of the Cape and the Orlando Metro early this
afternoon. Rounds of scattered to numerous quick moving showers
are forecast to continue through the evening and overnight, and
coastal areas which see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may
become vulnerable to ponding of water or minor flooding. Despite
cold temperatures aloft (500mb), poor lapse rates between the
700-500mb layer have largely limited lightning and storm
potential, and lightning chances remain low through the remainder
of today and into tonight. Low temperatures fall to range the
upper 60s across much of east central Florida early Sunday morning
while areas near the coast may hold closer to 70 degrees.

Sunday-Tuesday... A tightening pressure gradient is expected into
Sunday as high pressure persists over the eastern U.S. and low
pressure begins to gradually organize over the western Atlantic.
Gusty northeast winds strengthen on Sunday, persisting into the
workweek. A Wind Advisory continues along the coast Sunday, but most
ensemble probabilities do not show enough confidence to expand inland
at this time. Therefore, expect wind gusts of 30-35 mph along the
coast, remaining closer to 30 mph inland on Sunday with gusty
conditions persisting Monday and Tuesday. The long duration onshore
wind event will continue hazardous to dangerous beach and marine
conditions. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents and rough
surf is expected with large breaking waves of 7-11 ft, and a High
Surf Advisory continues at least through Monday. Entering the water
is strongly discouraged! Long period swells exceeding 10-12 seconds
combined with pounding surf will contribute to Moderate to Major
beach erosion at area beaches. Wind driven coastal impacts will be
further enhanced by a period of astronomical high tides. Wave runup
during the morning high tide cycles will result in Minor to Moderate
coastal flooding, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings, and a
Coastal Flood Warning in effect Sunday and Monday will likely need
to be extended into Tuesday. Heading to the beach could become
hazardous, especially during times of high tide.

Passing pockets of locally higher moisture will support rounds of
onshore moving showers on Sunday. Greatest rain chances are forecast
in vicinity of the coastal I-95 corridor (50-80%) while scattered
(20-40%) rounds of showers should still manage to push inland.
Lightning chances remain low. However, showers will be capable of
localized gusty winds 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. General
consensus among deterministic and ensemble model suites has
highlighted an area of higher QPF across portions of southeast
Florida on Sunday, extending northward through portions of the
Treasure Coast counties. A slight risk for excessive rainfall exists
for these areas, and cannot rule out ponding water or minor flooding
where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occurs. Rounds of showers
remain forecast Sunday night before a drier airmass begins to advect
southward. This will reduce interior rain chances Monday and
Tuesday. Scattered rain chances persist along the coast Monday,
becoming limited south of the Cape by Tuesday.

High temperatures remain seasonal early next week, mostly in the low
80s. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the interior
will be a few degrees warmer across the coastal counties each day.

Wednesday-Friday (previous)...Discrepancies persist in guidance
relative to the strength of the pressure gradient mid to late week,
primarily driven by differing placement and strength of the
lingering low pressure system out in the Atlantic. These should
resolve over time after the low develops. Regardless, breezy and
gusty northeast winds are anticipated to persist across east central
Florida, resulting in prolonged hazardous coastal and surf
conditions. Additionally, this flow will support development of
onshore-moving showers and isolated storms, with the highest chances
focused along the coast. Lower chances across the interior, though
it cannot be fully ruled out. Temperatures are forecast to remain
near normal values for this time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into next week as
a tightening pressure gradient across the local waters leads to
increasing winds and seas. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots today build to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up
to 35 knots from Sunday onward. Seas of 6 to 9 feet today rapidly
build tonight into Sunday up to 10 to 15 feet, highest across the
Gulf Stream waters. Elevated seas are anticipated to linger
through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory across the
local waters will upgrade into Gale Warnings, starting at 8 PM
tonight across the Volusia and Brevard waters and at 8 AM Sunday
across the Treasure Coast waters. For now, the Gale Warning
continues through Monday, though extensions in time will be likely
given the prolonged period of dangerous conditions.

Moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters through this
weekend, with a return of scattered to numerous onshore-moving
showers anticipated. Rain chances 40-70% today increase to 60-80%
tonight through Monday, with a slight decrease in rain chances
from Tuesday onward. There is a low chance (20-40%) for storm
development with activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

N/NE winds across the interior will decrease to around 10-12 knots,
with gusts up to 18-20 knots still possible into tonight. However,
along the coast it will remain breezy to windy, with wind speeds
either remaining or increasing to around 15-20 knots with gusts to
25-30 knots (potentially up to 35 knots at times) as NE wind
surge builds in near to after midnight. Winds areawide then
increase out of the NE to 18-22 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots
(up to 35 knots at times along the coast). Gusty scattered
onshore moving showers are forecast through tonight and into
Sunday, with a slight chance for storms as well. Have kept VCSH
for much of the forecast period, with some tempo MVFR conditions
at times with this activity at the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  79  70  80 /  70  70  60  50
MCO  69  82  70  83 /  50  40  40  10
MLB  70  82  72  82 /  70  80  60  30
VRB  69  83  71  84 /  80  80  60  50
LEE  67  81  68  81 /  40  20  30  10
SFB  68  82  69  82 /  50  50  50  20
ORL  69  82  70  83 /  50  40  40  10
FPR  69  82  71  83 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ141-347-447.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-347-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ154-159-164-647-
     747.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ154-159-164-
     647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570-572.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich