366
FXUS62 KMLB 290515
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Daily rain and lightning storm chances increase late week into
  the weekend, bringing the potential of gusty winds, frequent
  lightning, and torrential downpours

- With repeated rounds of rainfall possible over some of the same
  locations each day, the risk for localized flooding increases
  this weekend into early next week

- A moderate rip current risk exists at area beaches may persist
  at east central Florida beaches this weekend

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...A stalled boundary remains draped across
south Florida, with an area of high pressure situated to the north
over the eastern CONUS. This has resulted in light and variable
winds at the surface through much of this morning. Moisture
across the peninsula has led to isolated to scattered shower
development along the coast as the sea breeze has moved inland,
and guidance continues to favor increasing coverage through the
remainder of this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The
increasing coverage is forecast to come from not only a sea breeze
collision near the Orlando metro, but also other boundary
collisions from various outflows caused by storms that develop
along the sea breeze. There remains a 60-70% chance of rain and
storms through the rest of today. Primary storm concerns continue
to be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and
torrential downpours. Small hail due to dry air in the hail growth
zone as well as brief funnel clouds or even a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out within boundary collisions, though confidence
in hail and rotation remains low at this time. Westerly flow aloft
will steer shower and storm activity back towards the east coast
of Florida late this afternoon into the evening hours, with
activity anticipated to move offshore overnight. Conditions across
the area look to remain relatively dry beyond midnight, with a
return of light and variable winds across the area.

Current temperatures continue to remain on track to reach the upper
80s to low 90s across east central Florida this afternoon. Tonight,
temperatures fall into the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Sunday (previous)...Deep moisture return, a stationary front
draped over north-central Florida, and pockets of mid/upper level
energy rounding the base of an eastern CONUS trough will set the
stage for unsettled weather this holiday weekend. On Friday, weak
surface winds in the morning will turn ENE as the east coast breeze
pushes inland (perhaps slightly faster across the northern CWA).
Westerly steering flow deepens/strengthens a bit as PVA rounds the
base of a 500mb trough over north Florida. More afternoon showers
and storms are forecast with precip chances around 60-75% areawide.
Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours will
accompany the most organized activity. By early evening, a drift of
storms back toward the coast will once again be favored. With
greater moisture availability, some showers may linger into the
overnight hours (especially along the coast) as temperatures retreat
into the 70s.

Greater coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast both
Saturday and Sunday. Repeated rounds of rainfall spell a gradually
increasing risk for localized flooding as we move further into the
weekend. Saturated sounding profiles with PW near 2.1-2.2"+ each
afternoon, while in the presence of a stalled front just to the
north, indicate the potential for storms each day to produce high
rainfall rates. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall covers most of
the area Friday and Saturday, with the northern two-thirds of ECFL
favored on Sunday. Heavier rains over the St. Johns River Basin
could also lead to Astor remaining in at least Action Stage for some
time longer. Confidence in storms pushing back toward the coast each
afternoon and evening is medium, due to stronger WNW steering flow
(especially Sunday). Widespread 1-2" of rainfall is forecast by this
time Monday morning, though 48-hour HREF PMM (thru Friday night)
alone indicates localized pockets of 2-4"+. In addition to the
rainfall threat, gusty winds produced by water-loaded downdrafts and
frequent lightning are also in play. For those with outdoor plans
this weekend, be prepared to move indoors when thunder roars and
skies threaten!

Labor Day-Wednesday (previous)...The stretch of unsettled wet
weather looks to last into the first part of next week as 500mb
trough anomalies park over the eastern half of the country. Rain
chances remain high (70-80%) through at least Tuesday before we
start to see some movement in the surface front to our north. The
front is forecast to very slowly drift southward toward the Treasure
Coast by Wednesday and eventually reach the Florida Straits on
Thursday. Global models are in a little more agreement in the most
recent 00z run, with comparably drier air moving into the northern
half of ECFL by Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface winds turn
increasingly onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon, which is
where much of the shower and storm activity will continue to be
focused. Looking ahead, it does look rain chances taper down a bit
more later next week.

Temperatures early next week are forecast to be near to slightly
below normal for the start of September: highs in the mid 80s to
near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. As rain
chances decrease by the middle to latter part of next week,
temperatures do look to trend upward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A moist airmass will remain across the local Atlantic waters over
the next several days, with high rain chances (60-80%) forecast
through the period. Frequent lightning strikes, winds gusts in
excess of 34 knots, torrential downpours leading to reduced
visibilities out on the waters, and locally higher seas will be
possible with the strongest storms. Activity will tend to diminish
during the late overnight and early morning hours, ramping up in the
afternoon and evening hours as activity moves offshore from the
peninsula.

Despite the weather conditions, boating conditions are anticipated
to remain generally favorable. Light and variable winds become more
easterly during the afternoon hours as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland across the peninsula. Wind speeds
generally remain below 15 knots. Seas are forecast to be 1 to 3 feet
through the period, potentially building up to 4 to 5 feet late this
weekend into early next week across the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Convection finally pushing away from the coast and across the
adjacent Atlc waters early in the period. Remainder of night
should be mainly dry. L/V winds thru the morning, once again, then
transitioning onshore along the coast early in the afternoon and
trending inland. Will see ISOLD/SCT convection along inland moving
sea breeze with coverage/intensity increasing thru late aftn and
evening into the interior with additional boundary collisions.
SWRLY steering flow a bit stronger than this past day and should
see showers/storms pushing back to the coast and offshore thru the
evening again. Have initiated some TEMPO groups I-4 corridor for
Fri afternoon/early evening, with "Vicinity" wording for coastal
locations. Will consider additional TEMPO groups here at a later
time. TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection, otherwise mainly
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  87  74 /  60  60  80  40
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  60  80  30
MLB  89  75  89  74 /  60  60  80  40
VRB  91  73  91  73 /  60  60  80  40
LEE  90  74  88  74 /  60  30  80  30
SFB  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  80  30
ORL  91  75  89  74 /  60  60  80  30
FPR  91  72  91  72 /  60  60  80  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock