131
FXUS62 KMLB 280658
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will persist across
  east central Florida today.

- A High risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the surf is not
  advised!

- Moisture increases across the Florida peninsula from Tuesday
  onward, resulting in a return of rain and storm chances locally.
  A slight uptick in temperatures and a return of humidity is also
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Today-Tonight... The upper level cut-off low and associated
nor`easter will move northward along the NE coastline through today.
At the surface, broad high pressure will continue to build over the
Florida peninsula as high pressure across the western Atlantic
slowly builds westward towards the Caribbean. Locally, drier air
will filter across the area, with forecast PW values falling to 1.0-
1.2" areawide. This will result in little to no rain and storm
chances today, with the highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent)
occurring across the southern Treasure Coast. The pressure gradient
remains slack over the local area, with light and variable winds
today turning onshore (east to southeast) in the afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures will be
seasonable today, however they will begin to increase from the past
couple days. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and
maybe even reach 90 degrees in some spots in the interior. Peak heat
indices will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be
in the 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees along the coast.

At the beaches, hazards conditions linger. A High risk of dangerous
life-threatening rip currents continues at all area beaches.
Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

Tuesday-Wednesday... Upper level trough over the eastern seaboard
early next week will push offshore by midweek. A surface high
pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift northward through
the period, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida
peninsula. Locally, onshore (east to southeast) winds will remain in
place, with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze
will form each afternoon, enhancing the winds to around 10 mph
behind the sea breeze. Moisture will begin to increase through
period, with forecast PW values of 1.3-1.6" on Tuesday afternoon
becoming to 1.6-1.8" Wednesday afternoon. This will support
increasing rain and storm chances each day, becoming above normal by
mid week. Highest rain chances will occur across the south,
generally south of Orlando metro, each day.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend, with seasonable to slightly
above normal conditions forecast. Afternoon highs will generally
reach mid to upper 80s, with some locations reaching low 90s across
the interior. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Sunday... Upper cut-off low over the Great Plains on
Thursday will shift northward, becoming absorbed into the trough
over the Midwest by the weekend. An upper high pressure over the
western Atlantic will shift westward, towards the Florida peninsula,
through late week, with the center moving over Florida by the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic
will steadily shift north and westward, moving towards the Carolina
coast. Locally, east to southeast winds will dominate, becoming
enhanced each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea
breeze. Moisture increases over the area through the period, with
forecast PW values ranging from 2.0-2.4". This will support near to
above normal rain chances each day, with scattered to numerous
showers and storms areawide by the weekend. Slight warming trend
continues through the period, with seasonable to slightly above
normal temperatures forecast each day, as afternoon highs increasing
about a degree in some locations each day. Overnight lows will be in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast.
West to southwest winds 5-10 KT this morning will veer onshore (east
to southeast) and increase to 10-15 KT this afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Light and variable winds on
Tuesday morning will once again become southeasterly and increase to
around 10 KT in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Southeasterly
winds will then become dominate Wednesday onward, with speeds around
10 KT. Seas 3-5 ft today will subside 2-3ft on Tuesday, and 2ft on
Wednesday. Seas will build to 2-3 ft Thursday and 3-4ft on Friday.
Mostly dry conditions today, with increasing coverage of showers and
lightning storms forecast across all local waters starting Tuesday,
becoming scattered to numerous Wednesday through at least late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds light/variable thru 14-15z, increasing 5-8 kt from the SW,
then veering onshore as the ECSB moves inland after 17-19z
(except at LEE). Speeds could reach 10-12 kt thru 01z. VFR conds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage and is
actively cresting due to an ongoing period of northerly winds and
tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside through
Minor Flood Stage this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  70  88  72 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  88  71  89  72 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  87  72  87  74 /   0   0  20  30
VRB  87  71  88  72 /   0   0  30  30
LEE  88  70  89  72 /  10   0  20   0
SFB  88  70  89  72 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  88  71  89  72 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  87  70  88  71 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper