286
FXUS62 KMLB 281834
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Moisture increases across the area from Tuesday onward,
  resulting in more humid conditions and a return of daily shower
  and lightning storm chances.

- A High risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the surf is not
  advised!

- Highs remain seasonably warm through midweek, with a slight
  warming trend Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Tonight-Tuesday...Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue
through tonight. Some of the hi-res guidance shows perhaps a brief
shower or two from a sea breeze collision over the interior this
evening, or developing over the Treasure Coast waters overnight.
However, not much confidence in this, and with the overall dry
airmass in place will maintain PoPs of 10% or less. Mid to upper
level trough across the eastern U.S. seaboard will begin to pull
some moisture northward into the area tomorrow. This will begin a
return of daily showers and storms that will continue through the
work week. However, rain chances remain on the lower end for
Tuesday, only around 20-30%, mainly across areas south of Orlando
and northwest of the I-4 corridor. A weak developing onshore flow
may then lead to additional isolated to scattered showers moving
onshore along the coast into Tuesday night.

Lows tonight will not be quite as cool as this morning, but will
still drop into the mid to upper 60s in some areas, with other
locations not falling below the 70 degree mark. Highs tomorrow will
remain seasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s, with some added
humidity forecast as dewpoints will rise to the upper 60s/low 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday...Trough aloft breaks down across the area, with
mid level ridge gradually building in from over the western Atlantic
this week and across Florida into the weekend. At the surface, high
pressure builds offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, with ridge axis
remaining north of the area. This will lead to a developing onshore
flow that will persist through the weekend. Moisture will continue
to increase across the area during this time, with PW values rising
from 1.7-2.0" on Wednesday to 2.0-2.2" Thursday and Friday. This
will continue to increase coverage of showers and storms each day.
East-southeast low level winds that will be breezy at times, will
lead to isolated to scattered onshore moving showers and a few
storms during the nighttime and morning hours. This activity will
then become scattered to numerous (PoPs ranging from 40-70%)
along a diffuse east coast sea breeze from late morning into the
afternoon hours each day. Warming temps aloft as ridge aloft
gradually builds in and deeper moisture in place will keep
stronger storm threat limited. However, can`t rule out a few
stronger storms each day, producing frequent lightning, strong
wind gusts to 40-50 mph and locally heavy downpours.

Highs will remain near normal for this time of year in the mid to
upper 80s Wed-Thu, with just a slight warming trend into late week
and weekend, as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s as ridge builds
in. The added humidity is also forecast to lead to a return to
triple digit peak heat index values (100-105F) Friday-Sunday.
Strengthening onshore flow will keep conditions overnight warm
and muggy, with lows near to above normal in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Tonight-Saturday...Boating conditions remain mostly favorable. High
pressure building across the eastern U.S. will shift offshore the
Mid-Atlantic coast through midweek, with ridge axis remaining north
of the waters through late week and into the weekend. South-
southeast winds through this evening become south-southwest
overnight, and then back again to the east-southeast tomorrow
afternoon behind the inland moving sea breeze. Winds speeds will be
relatively light around 5-10 knots or less through tomorrow. From
Wednesday onward, winds will remain predominately onshore,
increasing from around 10 knots on Wednesday to 10-15 knots through
the weekend. Seas range from 2-3 feet through midweek, increasing to
3-4 feet Thursday-Saturday.

Main hazard to boaters will be increasing coverage of showers and
storms through the work week. Mostly dry conditions forecast to
continue over the waters through tonight, then isolated to scattered
showers and storms into Tuesday become scattered to numerous
Wednesday onward. Greatest coverage of this activity will be during
the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail, with drier air lingering over the area. A
late start to the sea breeze today, but visible satellite imagery
shows it beginning shortly after 1 PM south of SUA. Expect the sea
breeze to develop northward over the next hour or two, but the
inland extent looks to be limited. Thus, interior sites look to
remain SW/W this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight
will again be slow to erode Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, SE
winds under 10 kts are forecast. Dry conditions look to continue,
but will need to monitor for a few showers VRB southward after
the end of the current 18Z TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The St Johns River at Astor remains within Minor Flood Stage due to
tidal effects. River levels are forecast to gradually subside
through Minor Flood Stage this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
MCO  70  88  71  87 /  10  10  10  60
MLB  70  87  74  86 /   0  10  20  50
VRB  67  88  72  86 /   0  20  30  60
LEE  70  88  71  88 /  10  20  10  50
SFB  70  88  72  87 /  10  10  10  50
ORL  71  88  72  88 /  10  10  10  50
FPR  68  87  72  86 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Wishard