081
FXUS62 KMLB 280644
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
244 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered lightning storms are expected this afternoon and
  evening with 40-60% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be
  frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and locally heavy
  rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and
  poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a
  diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of
  100 to 106 today and Saturday. Heat indices may approach 108
  next week. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and
  consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air
  conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today...Little change is forecast as low level Atlantic ridge
axis remains nearly stationary across south central FL. And aloft,
we remain sandwiched between a pair of mid level highs with weak
troughing extending down over the FL panhandle/NE Gulf. Light sfc
winds in vicinity of the ridge axis will allow the Atlc sea breeze
to form and push inland sparking scattered showers and lightning
storms during the early to mid afternoon near the coast, then
focusing on the interior late in the day into the early evening.
Storms may linger a little past sunset near or over Orlando
metro. A S/SW flow between 850-700mb is more prevalent across
northern sections which could bring a few storms back toward the
Volusia coast this evening. Severe weather is not anticipated with
unimpressive mid level lapse rates and 500 mb temp forecast
around -6C. Nonetheless, precip water values around 2 inches will
promote very heavy rain with localized amounts around 3 inches
possible in a 60-90 minute period. This will cause temporary
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas. The stronger storms
will also contain frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to
55 mph.

Prior to storms, temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid in
the low to mid 90s with heat indices 100-106.

Sat-Thu...The weak troughing over the NE Gulf will begin to
retrograde westward and fill this weekend and early next week
allowing one strong ridge aloft to become dominant across the SE
U.S. This will lift the low level ridge axis north of our area
resulting in onshore flow becoming dominant in the low and mid
levels. Scattered storms are forecast each day pushing quickly
inland with the Atlc sea breeze, eventually colliding with the
Gulf breeze near Orlando or points west late in the day. Immediate
coastal communities will see lower rain chances and also warmer
overnight lows due to the persistent onshore flow, likely holding
in the upper 70s/lower 80s there. Expect hot and humid daytime
conditions as we welcome September with peak heat indices climbing
a bit - possibly reaching 108 in spots next week - as
suppression/subsidence increase with the building ridge aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the
local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and
remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow
will persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to
southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift
onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the
area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into.
early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong
wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore
showers and storms will then be possible this weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms.
Light and variable winds will increase from the south-southwest at
5-10kts before backing onshore in the afternoon and evening with
the east coast sea breeze. VCTS is forecast beginning between
17Z-20Z with TEMPO TSRA groups between 18Z-24Z. The potential
exists for a few strong storms across ECFL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  89  76 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  94  76  93  76 /  50  50  70  20
MLB  91  77  90  77 /  30  20  50  30
VRB  91  75  90  76 /  50  30  50  40
LEE  91  75  92  76 /  60  30  70  30
SFB  93  75  93  76 /  50  50  70  20
ORL  93  76  93  77 /  50  50  70  20
FPR  91  75  90  76 /  50  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Fehling