480
FXUS62 KMLB 071050
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue, including
  minor coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, and rough
  surf with minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times
  of high tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

- A cold front passes central Florida late week bringing a more
  fall-like airmass this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today... A moisture gradient sets in place across east central
Florida today with modeled PWATs around 1.6" near I-4 and 2.0"
closer to Lake Okeechobee. Model soundings indicate the decreasing
PWATs are mostly reflective of building dry air aloft, and a
moist profile is still observed below 700 mb. This should maintain
rounds of isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers with the
best coverage across the south. Quick moving showers are forecast
to remain shallow with a limited threat for lightning across
southern counties. Even outside of showers, expect breezy and
gusty winds to continue out of the east. High temperatures mostly
reach the mid 80s with upper 80s forecast northwest of the
interior I-4 corridor.

Multiple coastal hazards persist at area beaches today. Rough surf
will allow for minor to moderate beach erosion during the high
tide cycle. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at
all local beaches, and entering the water is not advised. Breezy
onshore flow and high astronomical tides continue to promote
periods of minor coastal flooding at times of high tide.

Wednesday-Friday... A surface trough is pushed toward the eastern
U.S. coast into mid week as high pressure moves across the upper
midwest. A local pressure gradient slightly loosens, as a second
area of high pressure retreats eastward over the Atlantic. Expect
only a minimal reduction in wind speeds, and gusty onshore flow is
forecast to persist each day. Drier air is maintained aloft on
Wednesday with the best chances for rain again across the southern
counties (40-50%). Deeper moisture spreads across central Florida
Thursday and into Friday as a broad area of surface low pressure
attempts to organize near the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas.
Higher rain chances build from south (60%) to north (40-50%) on
Thursday. Coastal convergence looks to increase on Friday, building
PoPs to (60-70%) along the coast with more scattered coverage across
the far interior (~50%). Heavy rainfall looks to return to the coast
late Thursday and into Friday, although discrepancies are noted in
modeled QPF output between global models. High temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday trend downward into late week, widely
spreading the low 80s by Friday. Low temperatures in the low to mid
70s also look to decline late week, mostly in the low 70s Friday
morning except for areas along the immediate coast.

Seas show a diminishing trend through the period alleviating a few
coastal hazards. However, high astronomical tides and onshore flow
will maintain the coastal flood threat. In fact, P-ETTS guidance
suggests tidal levels increasing near Moderate Flood for at least
portions of the local coastline during the Thursday and Friday
morning high tide cycles. Will need to monitor for a potential
Coastal Flood Watch or Coastal Flood Warning as confidence increases
in time. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist
at area beaches, and entering the water is not advised.

Saturday-Monday... Weak low pressure near the Bahamas is forecast to
further organize as it lifts north and eastward across the Atlantic
waters. This feature will pull a cold front across central Florida
into Saturday, bring a taste of fall for the weekend. Scattered
showers linger on Saturday depending on the time of the frontal
passage. Otherwise, a drier post-frontal airmass will keep rain
chances low into early next week. High temperatures hold below
normal each day, mostly in the low 80s. Morning temperatures in the
upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday are forecast to widely spread the
60s Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through early Wednesday
morning as seas of 8-9 ft offshore and 6-8 ft nearshore subside to 5-
6 ft. Onshore winds of 20-25 kts today slacken to 15-20 kts
Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions deteriorate again Friday and into
the weekend as a weak area of low pressure organizes in the
southwest Atlantic and a cold front passes the local waters.
Northerly winds spread across the waters on Saturday, increasing to
20-25 kts across the Volusia waters. In response, seas build to 6-9
ft nearshore and 8-11 ft offshore early this weekend, locally
highest in the Volusia waters. Isolated to scattered onshore-moving
showers continue through Wednesday with the pattern becoming
unsettled into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mostly VFR this morning, with some passing lower clouds producing
brief MVFR cigs. Isolated showers also pushing onshore this
morning. Drier air will lower overall coverage of showers and
storms today, especially across northern portions of east central
FL where rain chances range form 20-30% from KMCO to KTIX
northward and up to 40-60% south. Isolated to scattered showers
and a few storms will develop and push westward across the region
today, producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions. However, greatest
potential for storms looks to remain south of Orlando. Still not
much confidence at this time for any tempo groups, but have VCSH
mentioned for most TAF sites, and also have VCTS for KVRB-KSUA
from 15-20Z.

Breezy easterly winds forecast across the area again today, with
wind speeds increasing to around 13-17 knots and gusts to 22-27
knots. Winds then decrease out of the E/NE into tonight to around
5-7 knots inland and north of the Cape, but will remain gusty
from KMLB southward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  73  86  74 /  20   0  20  20
MCO  86  73  88  74 /  30   0  20  20
MLB  85  76  86  75 /  40  10  30  30
VRB  86  76  86  75 /  50  20  30  40
LEE  88  71  89  73 /  20   0  20  10
SFB  87  73  88  74 /  30   0  20  20
ORL  86  73  88  74 /  30   0  20  20
FPR  85  76  86  75 /  60  20  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich