992
FXUS62 KMLB 241048
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
648 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through this
  weekend and into next week. Entering the ocean is not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions are forecast this weekend and early next
  week.

- Increasing rain and storm chances are forecast through the
  weekend. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated
  rounds of showers and the potential for training bands of
  showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Today-Tonight...The Florida peninsula remains wedged between a
strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern US and a
stalled boundary draped across the northern Caribbean, maintaining
northeasterly winds locally. A tightening of the pressure
gradient due to the strengthening high will lead to an increase in
winds today, with sustained speeds forecast to reach 15 to 20 mph
while gusts range between 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds are
anticipated along the coast, with conditions reaching Wind
Advisory criteria along the Volusia and northern Brevard coastline
starting at 2 PM and expanding southward along the coast at 2 AM.
The persistent northeast winds are forecast to continue advecting
moisture from the Atlantic towards the coast, with a southward-
moving mid-level trough providing some energy aloft to support
onshore-moving showers today. While isolated activity has already
begun across the local waters, coverage is anticipated to increase
this afternoon into the overnight hours, with the potential for
some training bands to develop. As a result, WPC has outlooked the
east coast in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall today,
with minor, localized flooding possible in some spots.
Additionally, there is a low chance (20-30%) for storm activity to
develop, with isolated lightning strikes and occasional stronger
wind gusts possible. As mentioned, activity is anticipated to
persist into the overnight hours, and farther intrusion inland of
showers will be possible. Temperatures remain near normal, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 60s to low
70s.

Hazardous to dangerous beach conditions are forecast along the
east coast today as a result of the persistent northeast winds,
high astronomical tides, and building seas. A high risk of rip
currents is forecast along with rough surf. A High Surf Advisory
has been issued for the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts
starting at 11 AM, expanding southward to the rest of the east
central Florida coast at 8 PM. Breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet are
forecast, starting up north and expanding southward as seas
continue to build overnight. The rough, pounding surf is also
anticipated to result in beach erosion. A Coastal Flood Advisory
is in effect along the entire east central Florida coastline for
minor coastal flooding that is anticipated to peak during high
tide, approximately between the hours of 5 to 7 AM/PM. Overall,
conditions at the beach will be dangerous, and entering the ocean
is not encouraged. Even heading to the beach could become
hazardous, especially during periods of high tide.

Sunday-Tuesday...The surface high across the eastern US will
continue to strengthen and push southward through this weekend and
into early next week, while at the same time a broad area of low
pressure gradually develops along a stalled boundary draped across
the northern Caribbean and meanders across the western Atlantic.
The result will be a continued tightening of the pressure gradient
across the Florida peninsula, resulting in increasing wind speeds
locally. Northeast winds are forecast to reach 20 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph starting on Sunday, with these windy and gusty
conditions persisting into Monday and Tuesday. Wind Advisories
will likely be needed areawide beginning on Sunday, with high
confidence for advisories across portions if not most of east
central Florida through the start of the work week.

The persistent northeast flow will continue to advect moisture
towards the Florida peninsula, with rain chances remaining high
into Sunday (40-80%). Sunday looks to have the best chances for
activity to push farther inland, and there is also a low chance
(20-40%) for some storm development with activity as well. Any
storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing
lightning strikes and strong wind gusts. Additionally, with the
persistent northeast flow, training bands may develop across east
central Florida, raising the risk for localized flooding. There is
currently a Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall across
portions of the Treasure Coast, with a Marginal Risk (1/4) along
northern portions of the coast. By Monday and Tuesday, rain
chances are anticipated to decrease slightly to 30- 50%, with the
highest coverage forecast along the coast primarily from the Cape
southward. Minor flooding will remain a concern, with a Marginal
Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall continuing across portions of the
Treasure Coast into Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast
to remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s during the
afternoon hours, falling into the 60s to low 70s during the
overnight hours.

With the persistent northeast flow, continued high astronomical
tides, and high wave heights forecast, dangerous surf conditions
are anticipated to continue along the east coast through this
weekend and into early next week. Entering the ocean is STRONGLY
discouraged, and even heading to the beach could become dangerous,
especially during high tides. A Coastal Flood Warning is now in
effect beginning at 2 AM on Sunday for minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the entire east central Florida coast. A high risk
of rip currents will persist and the High Surf Advisory will
continue along the entire east central Florida coast for breaking
waves of 7 to 12 feet as well as moderate to major coastal erosion
due to the pounding surf. Extensions in time of these coastal
hazard products are highly likely given the anticipated prolonged
nature of this event.

Wednesday-Friday...Discrepancies persist in guidance relative to
the strength of the pressure gradient mid to late week, primarily
driven by differing placement and strength of the lingering low
pressure system out in the Atlantic. These should resolve over
time after the low develops. Regardless, breezy and gusty
northeast winds are anticipated to persist across east central
Florida, resulting in prolonged hazardous coastal and surf
conditions. Additionally, this flow will support continued
development of onshore-moving showers and isolated storms, with
the highest chances focused along the coast. Lower chances across
the interior, though it cannot be fully ruled out. Temperatures
are forecast to remain near normal values for this time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into next week as
a tightening pressure gradient across the local waters leads to
increasing winds and seas. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with
gusts up to 30 knots today build to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up
to 35 knots from Sunday onward. Seas of 6 to 9 feet today rapidly
build tonight into Sunday up to 10 to 15 feet, highest across the
Gulf Stream waters. Elevated seas are anticipated to linger
through the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory across the
local waters will upgrade into Gale Warnings, starting at 8 PM
tonight across the Volusia and Brevard waters and at 8 AM Sunday
across the Treasure Coast waters. For now, the Gale Warning
continues through Monday, though extensions in time will be likely
given the prolonged period of dangerous conditions.

Moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters through this
weekend, with a return of scattered to numerous onshore-moving
showers anticipated. Rain chances 40-70% today increase to 60-80%
tonight through Monday, with a slight decrease in rain chances
from Tuesday onward. There is a low chance (20-40%) for storm
development with activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Generally VFR conditions continue through the TAF period outside of
convection. N/NE flow near 10 kts across the interior and 10-15 kts
with higher gusts along the coast early this morning. Winds will
become NNE/NE through the day increasing to around 15 kts (G25
kts), except 15-20 kts (G25-30 kts) along the coast Cape
northward. Winds remain elevated and gusty tonight (esp along
the coast - actually increasing further MLB southward). Gradually
increasing onshore-moving showers and ISOLD lightning storms thru
the day and into tonight. Highest PoPs will be along the east
coast diminishing into the interior. "Vicinity" wording in place
with TEMPO groups later in the day/night. TEMPO MVFR invof
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  68  79  69 /  60  70  60  60
MCO  81  69  82  70 /  20  40  40  10
MLB  81  68  81  70 /  30  70  70  50
VRB  83  68  83  70 /  10  60  70  60
LEE  79  66  80  66 /  10  30  20  10
SFB  81  67  81  69 /  30  50  50  20
ORL  81  68  82  70 /  20  40  40  10
FPR  82  67  82  69 /  10  60  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Monday
     for FLZ141-347-447.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ141-347-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     FLZ154-159-164-647-747.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ154-159-164-
     647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570-572.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock