187
FXUS62 KMLB 041053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
653 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A high risk of rip currents continues through at least Friday;
  entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions linger across the local
  Atlantic today, improving this weekend and early next week

- Overall drier conditions are forecast into the upcoming weekend
  as temperatures climb back to near or slightly above normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Breezy conditions remain early this morning (mainly
at the coast) as temperatures range from the mid 60s/low 70s inland
to the mid/upper 70s along the southern Space and Treasure Coast.
With a deep mid-low level dry layer in place today, only a
smattering of low and high clouds are forecast, leaving room for a
fair amount of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures will warm by a few
degrees compared to Wednesday, reaching the mid 80s inland and low
80s at the coast. An onshore breeze of 10-15 mph (slightly higher at
the coast) may gust at times to 20-25 mph, especially as a diffuse
east coast breeze moves inland. Shower chances remain south of the
area, in closer proximity to a front that has stalled over south
Florida and the Florida Straits. Wind speeds decrease overall
tonight as the pressure gradient unwinds. Forecast lows in the
mid/upper 60s inland are about 3-5 degrees shy of normal, but
coastal areas will stay near normal in the low/mid 70s, due to light
onshore flow.

At the beaches, a high risk of rip currents continues due to
lingering rough surf and an easterly swell. Entering the water is
strongly discouraged!

Friday-Saturday...The week looks to end on a mostly dry note in the
presence of surface high pressure, centered over the Coastal
Carolinas/Georgia and adjacent Atlantic. A few stray onshore-moving
showers cannot be ruled out Friday and Saturday mornings, but
officially, only Saturday morning includes a 15% shower chance south
of the Cape. PW near 1-1.25" and a significant amount of dry air
above 850mb will work to limit most activity. More sunshine means
temperatures are going to climb into the weekend, ranging from the
mid to upper 80s Friday to the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday. This
brings us back closer to normal for early June. A daily east coast
breeze will bring only slight relief in the afternoon, in the form
of 15 mph gusts. Overnight lows trend up as well, reaching the low
to mid 70s by Saturday night/Sunday morning.

A high risk of rip currents continues on Friday and may last into a
portion of the upcoming weekend. Remember, nice weather is
deceiving, and rip currents can pull even the best swimmers away
from shore into deeper water.

Sunday-Wednesday...A weak, shorter-lived H5 Omega Block pattern
develops late weekend into early next week across the CONUS. Surface
high pressure begins to break down Sunday, but not enough to break
out of continued onshore flow. The stationary front from earlier
this week is forecast to retreat northward to Lake Okeechobee and
the Treasure Coast before washing out on Monday. Model differences
start to show up at this point in the extended, where global models
have notable differences in how much moisture returns to east
central Florida, if much at all, through the middle of next week.
Rain chances have come down a bit to reflect more uncertainty but
with another weak front approaching from the north on Tuesday, rain
chances could inch upward.

Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s most days, though
a few inland sites could push the mid 90s Sunday and Monday.
Overall, Monday looks to be the warmest of the next seven, as 850mb
temps reach 17-18C. A minor HeatRisk will likely grow into a
Moderate HeatRisk for portions of the area, but higher heat indices
(100F+) are less certain and will depend on moisture return (or lack
thereof).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Buoy 41009 at 2 AM was reporting seas between 6.5 and 7.0 feet,
along with Buoy 41070 at 6.0 feet. Poor to hazardous conditions will
linger across the waters today, even as winds decrease a bit
compared to Wednesday and seas slowly start to decline. A Small
Craft Advisory remains until 8 AM for the nearshore Volusia and
Brevard waters, and small craft should exercise caution for the rest
of the day there. The offshore Gulf Stream waters are where seas to
7 feet are forecast to remain before falling to 5-6 feet tonight.
East-northeast winds around 15 kt decrease overnight to 10-12 kt.

Favorable boating conditions return heading into the weekend and
early next week, though seas will still be 4-5 feet through Friday.
Saturday through Monday, seas settle around 2-4 feet. Onshore
flow 10-14 kt persists as high pressure remains to the north of
the local waters. Isolated onshore-moving showers are possible,
especially each morning, focused south of Cape Canaveral.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions persist areawide. Northeast winds pick up after 14Z
at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Dry conditions
are forecast across all east central Florida terminals, though
some brief, isolated light sprinkles cannot be ruled out along the
coast. Winds slacken into the overnight hours, remaining out of
the east-northeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  70  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  85  67  87  70 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  83  73  84  75 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  83  71  84  73 /   0   0   0  20
LEE  86  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  85  67  87  69 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  85  68  88  71 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  83  70  84  72 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen