772
FXUS62 KMLB 300824
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- East Central Florida residents and visitors should take
  advantage of today`s pleasant weather to prepare for multiple
  nights of hard freezes this weekend.

- Very windy conditions develop Saturday with strong frequent wind
  gusts 35 to 45 mph; occasional gusts over 50 mph possible.
  Preparations for the cold should be made before these winds
  arrive.

- A Freeze Watch and a rare Extreme Cold Watch have been issued
  for all of east central Florida Saturday night into Sunday.
  Dangerous wind chill values as low as 7 degrees and a hard
  freeze likely with low temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning.
  Additional watches/warnings for the following nights are likely.


- A Gale Watch has been issued for rapidly deteriorating and
  dangerous boating conditions Saturday afternoon and night as
  winds increase and seas build; strong gale-force gusts are
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today-Tonight...Today will be only "warm" day (near normal
temperatures) until mid-next week, and a prime opportunity to
prepare for the coming strong winds and arctic air outbreak this
weekend. Weak high pressure over the area retreats offshore ahead
of a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the
Southeast. East- southerly winds over the Atlantic waters near The
Bahamas will lift some moisture up towards Southeast Florida,
which could support a few showers across our southern counties
(rain chances 20% or less). Over land, mostly light and variable
winds shift westerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This should
gradually usher off the aforementioned showers. CAMs are oddly
enthusiastic about some shower chances across the rest of the area
later in the afternoon, but the environment generally doesn`t
support anything better than a silent 10% chance. More appreciable
rain chances (such as they are at 20%) forecast late tonight into
Saturday morning well ahead of the coming cold front.

Saturday..Significant winds and historic cold are expected this
weekend. A sharp upper level trough diving down into the southeast
will support substantial development of the previously mentioned
low pressure system, which will rapidly deepen Saturday as the
center pushes offshore the GA-SC-NC coasts and into the nearby
Atlantic waters. The cold front associated with this system is
forecast to pass quickly across the Florida peninsula through the
day Saturday, preceded by a second round of isolated to scattered
showers in the morning (if the overnight activity can be counted
as a first round) as PWATs briefly increase to around 1" ahead of
the boundary. Anyone hoping for rain for their lawns will need to
wait for another front, as most spots will receive less than
0.10", though the southern counties might see up to around a
quarter of an inch. Lightning storms are not forecast. Cloudy
skies will accompany the front, but clear out shortly after the
passage as very dry air arrives.

As the low rapidly deepens offshore the pressure gradient will
quickly tighten, increasing west-northwesterly winds Saturday
afternoon and evening to 20-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph,
and there is a 20-30% chance for gusts to exceed 50 mph. Worth
noting there are some timing discrepancies between the GFS and
ECM, with the GFS being about 6 hours slower than the ECM. At the
moment winds are forecast to "settle" to 15-20 mph with gusts to
30 mph inland during the overnight, but will need to monitor
forecast trends as there is potential for higher gusts in
particular to linger on.

Strong cold air advection on the western side of the low will
bring a slug of arctic air to Florida, causing temperatures
Saturday to only reach the M50s-M60s around 2 PM before plummeting
to L40s-L50s by sunset, with sub-freezing temperatures arriving
in the northern counties prior to midnight. A hard freeze is
forecast for all of East Central Florida for much of Saturday
night and Sunday morning as temperatures continue to crash into
the L-M20s across the interior, including all of the Orlando Metro
Area, and the M-U20s along the coastal corridor. Forecast lows
are 5-10 degrees below daily records for most locations (Orlando
is forecast to be "only" 3 degrees below their record), and
threatening the coldest temperatures for the month of February for
all but Orlando. Combined with the strong and gusty northwest
winds, wind chills be be bitterly cold during the day, and become
dangerous in the evening and overnight as values drop into the 20s
shortly after sunset, bottoming out in the single digits and
teens late Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold
Watch and a Freeze Watch remain in effect for all of East Central
Florida from Saturday Night through midday Sunday. For context,
last issuance of this product (called a Wind Chill Warning at the
time) by NWS Melbourne was January of 2014, and only for Lake and
Volusia counties. The last time all of East Central Florida was
included in this warning was December of 2010.

People and pets with inadequate shelter or heat will face a risk
of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some
non-native plants and trees will succumb to the elements if not
properly protected. The risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is
much higher due to the wind-driven cold that is expected. On that
note, it will become increasingly difficult to secure any loose
outdoor items or prepare vegetation for the anticipated hard
freeze Saturday night due to the strong and gusty winds expected
during the day. Thus, we encourage residents (and visitors) to
make preparations for the cold weather before winds arrive, and
prepare for multiple nights of dangerous cold!

Sunday...Winds won`t diminish until later in the afternoon as
the low starts to depart northeast, and breezy/gusty conditions
are expected through the day. Combined with temperatures that will
struggle to reach the M40s-L50s, wind chills will remain in the
20s-30s most of the day, only topping out in the U30s-M40s at the
"warmest" part of the afternoon. Afternoon highs are forecast to
range from a couple to nearly 10 degrees below daily record "cool
highs". Very dry conditions will keep skies clear with plenty of
sunshine, but sensitive to critical fire weather conditions may
develop as a result of the low humidity and winds.

A second very cold night is forecast Sunday night into Monday
morning, as temperatures once again sink into another hard freeze
in the L-M20s for nearly all of East Central Florida (some
southern barrier islands might fall short). While northwesterly
winds are forecast to have further settled to 5-10 mph, this will
still push wind chills down into the teens across most of the
area. These dangerously cold temperatures will once again pose a
significant risk of frostbite and hypothermia to people and pets,
cause exposed pipes to freeze, and damage or kill non-cold-hardy
plants.

Monday-Thursday...Cooler than normal and dry conditions will
continue through mid next week. High pressure that had worked its
way into the Gulf by Monday morning in the wake of the low
pressure system shifts over Florida on Tuesday, then pushes
offshore midweek ahead of our next weather system. There remains a
threat for a third night of freezing temperatures Monday night
into Tuesday morning for at least portions of East Central
Florida, and while winds will continue to diminish, wind chills
dropping into the 20s are possible for most of the area that night
as well. Freezing temperatures should be in the rear-view mirror
by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but frost will become a
concern. Wednesday will be our closest to normal day, before our
next front is forecast for the latter half of next week. There are
considerable differences between the global models` evolution of
this system, but the next system won`t have the same potency as
the one we`re currently preparing for. Some modest rain chances
return ahead of the front, then cooler than normal but far from
record cold late next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today...Generally favorable boating conditions before conditions
deteriorate and become dangerous this weekend. Weak high pressure
over Florida and the local Atlantic waters pushes offshore ahead
of a low pressure system developing over and tracking across the
Southeast. Light northerly winds will become variable at times
through the morning, becoming to westerly to northwesterly 5-15
kts in the late morning to early afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft. Isolated
showers will be possible across the southern and offshore waters.

Tonight-Sunday...Dangerous boating conditions through much of the
weekend, and mariners should remain in port. The aforementioned
low pressure system will rapdily deepen as it pushes offshore the
GA-SC-NC coast Saturday, with the attendant cold front passing
through Florida and the local Atlantic waters Saturday.
Northwesterly winds increasing to 15-20 kts tonight ahead of the
front further increase to 20-30 kts late Saturday morning behind
the front, then surge to 30-40 kts Saturday night. Gusts will
frequently reach high-end Gale strength, and occasional gusts to
Storm-force cannot be ruled out Saturday night. The generally
offshore winds will flatten seas near the coast some, but are
still expected to build to 4-8 ft nearshore and 6-8 ft Saturday
evening, reaching 6-10 ft nearshore and up to 16 ft in the Gulf
Stream late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with
occasionally higher seas. As the low lifts northeast Sunday winds
will start to decrease, but remain 25-35 kts with higher gusts
through much of the day Seas subside some but remain up to 8 ft in
the nearshore waters and over 10 ft offshore.

Isolated to scattered showers will precede the front late tonight
into early early Saturday morning, but lightning storms aren`t
forecast. There is potential for flurries over portions of the
local Atlantic waters Saturday night.

A Gale Watch has been issued for all Central Florida Atlantic
waters Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon, and Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all segments the rest
of Sunday, and portions of the local waters through at least
Monday.

Monday-Tuesday...High pressure builds towards Florida as the low
departs, but poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into
Tuesday, especially larger seas in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions forecast through Friday into Friday night. Light and
variable winds become W/SW and increase to 7-10 knots in the
afternoon as low pressure drags a cold front through the FL
Panhandle and eastern Gulf. Winds then diminish past sunset to 5
knots or less. There will be an increase in clouds around 4-6kft
with daytime heating and BKN cirrus at or above 20kft. Therefore no
cig concerns at this time. May see a few light showers into the
afternoon across the southern Treasure Coast, mainly near KSUA. For
now have VCSH in at this site from 16-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong and gusty winds 35-45 mph, possibly over 50 mph Saturday
afternoon will lead to containment issues of any fires. Sensitive
to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as
humidity drops below 35% while northwesterly winds remain around
15 mph with higher gusts. Winds decrease to 10 mph or less Monday,
but fire weather conditions remain sensitive due to humidity
values less than 30%.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  46  57  22 /   0  20  20  10
MCO  71  49  58  24 /   0  20  20   0
MLB  72  48  63  22 /  10  30  30  10
VRB  72  48  63  24 /  10  30  40   0
LEE  69  46  54  22 /   0  20  20   0
SFB  70  47  57  23 /   0  20  20   0
ORL  70  49  57  24 /   0  20  20   0
FPR  72  47  63  24 /  10  30  40   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich