072
FXUS62 KMLB 011930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Very cold conditions once again tonight into Monday morning. A
Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are in effect for all
of east central Florida from 7 PM tonight until 10 AM Monday
morning. Dangerous wind chill values of 14 to 20 degrees and a hard
freeze with low temperatures in the 20s are forecast Monday morning.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will linger into early next
week.

- A High Risk for rip currents and rough surf exists at area beaches
and will continue through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Today-Monday... A strong nor`easter off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
continue to lift northward through the day, eventually reaching Nova
Scotia tonight into Monday. High pressure off the TX/LA coast will
steadily shift eastward, building over the Florida peninsula through
Monday. Locally, west-northwest winds will gradually decrease
through the day while remaining breezy, with speeds at 15-20 mph,
with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Winds will diminish further into tonight
while turning more northwest, with speeds 5-10 mph (with highest
speeds along the coast) before winds increase slightly on Monday
with speeds of 5-15 mph. Dry conditions will continue through early
next week, with forecast PW values around 0.1-0.2" today and Monday,
leading to no mentionable rain chances through early week.

Temperatures will remain much colder than normal, despite the sunny
skies. Afternoon highs will range from mid 40s across the north to
upper 40s to low 50s across the south today, before warming slightly
to mid to upper 50s on Monday. Another very cold night is in store
for east central Florida tonight, with damaging hard freeze
conditions forecast once again as lows fall into the 20s. Very cold
wind chills as low as 14 to 20 degrees are forecast tonight into
Monday morning. A Freeze Warning for the hard freeze conditions and
an Extreme Cold Warning for the dangerously low wind chills remains
in place for all of east central Florida tonight from 7 PM through
10 AM Monday morning. People and pets with inadequate shelter or
heat will face a risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Exposed pipes
may freeze, and some non-native plants and trees will succumb to the
elements if not properly protected. Temperatures are forecast to
reach freezing once again Monday night into Tuesday morning for many
locations, as lows fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Areas to
widespread frost will be possible tonight into Monday morning for
areas that do not reach freezing, as well as Monday night into
Tuesday morning given the more favorable conditions of lighter winds
and clear skies both nights. A Freeze Watch/Warning will likely be
needed for Monday night into Tuesday morning for portions if not all
of east central Florida.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure over the Florida peninsula on
Tuesday will shift eastward and offshore into the Atlantic midweek,
with the ridge axis remaining across the local area. A series of
cold fronts look to push through late week and over the weekend. The
first cold front is progged to slide through Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with high pressure building in behind the frontal
passage. The next front will then push through Saturday. A lot of
uncertainty remains with these frontal passages, as global models
continue to have considerable differences with the evolution.
However, these frontal passages are not forecast to have the same
potency as the one that went through yesterday. Rain chances return
along and ahead of the next front on Wednesday night, with low to
medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain. Lingering showers (rain
chances 20-30 percent) through Thursday. Otherwise dry conditions
are forecast. Lightning storms are not forecast at this time.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the forecast
period, despite the warming trend through mid week.  Wednesday is
forecast to be the closest day to near normal temperatures before
decreasing once again on Thursday with the frontal passage (but will
remain above record cold)and Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the
low 70s on Wednesday before cooling to low to mid 60s on Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures slowly increase on Saturday, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70. Lows should remain above freezing through
the period, with temperatures slowly increasing into midweek before
dropping slightly on Thursday with the front. Lows will be in the
upper 30s to low 40s (except mid 40s to low 50s across the southern
Treasure Coast) on Tuesday night, and then mid to upper 40s to low
50s on Wednesday night before dropping back down on Thursday night
to low to mid 30s across the interior, and mid to upper 30s across
the coast. Overnight lows will then briefly increase to low to mid
40s on Friday night, before generally dropping to upper 30s to low
40s across the north and interior, and mid 40s to low 50s across the
coast from Cape Canaveral southward on Saturday night. Patchy to
areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly
across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Hazardous boating conditions continue this
afternoon and through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for all the central Florida Atlantic waters through at least Monday.
Northwest winds of 15-25 knots this afternoon are forecast to
continue through tonight as the strong low pressure shifts farther
north-northeast. Seas 7-12 ft in the offshore waters and 6-10 ft in
the nearshore waters this afternoon will slowly subside to 5-7ft in
the nearshore and 7-10 ft in the offshore waters tonight. A few
isolated showers will be possible in the far offshore waters this
afternoon, becoming dry overnight.

Monday-Thursday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions Monday will
gradually improve through Tuesday as high pressure builds over
Florida behind the departing low. Another cold front will then
approach the waters Wednesday night and through the waters Thursday,
with boating conditions once again becoming poor to hazardous.
Lingering seas of 5-10 ft on Monday will subside to 3-6 ft by
Tuesday afternoon, and 2-5 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Seas begin to
build Wednesday night into Thursday, with seas up to 8 ft by
Thursday afternoon. Northwest winds through Tuesday will shift south
to southwest on Wednesday ahead of the next frontal boundary, and
west to northwest on Thursday behind the front. Wind speeds of 20-25
KT on Monday will diminish to 10-15 KT by Tuesday morning. Winds
briefly decrease to around 10 KT Tuesday afternoon before increasing
to 10-15 KT Wednesday, and 15-20 KT Thursday. Additional Small Craft
Advisory and small craft exercise caution headlines will likely be
needed through early week, and again late week. Rain chances return
Wednesday night (rain chances 30-70 percent) ahead of the front,
with lingering showers (rain chances 20-60 percent) Thursday and
Thursday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1227 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

SKC conditions prevailing through the period. Breezy NW winds
today, with gusts 20-25 kts through the afternoon. Winds will
slacken overnight, falling below 10 kts with very cold conditions.
Then, NW winds continue Monday, increasing to around 9-12 kts
once again, with a few gusts near 20 kts possible into the
afternoon from MLB southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions forecast today, as a very cold and
much drier airmass has moved into the area. Strong northwest winds
will continue to decrease through daybreak this morning. However,
they will still be breezy and gusty through the day today, ranging
from 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Despite the colder
temps, very low dewpoints (single digits in some spots) will produce
minimum RH values in the 20s across east central Florida. While
these critical fire weather conditions will exist today, the
Significant Fire Potential remains low, precluding the need for a
Red Flag Warning.

High pressure gradually builds in from the west and across the area
early this week, which will allow north-northwest winds to weaken
and become more light and variable into Tuesday. Critically low
Min RH values will continue areawide tomorrow (below 30%), and
will then be confined to mostly the interior on Tuesday afternoon
(around 25- 35%). No mentionable rain chances through early this
week. Smoke dispersion values will be good to very good today and
very good to excellent on Monday.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Sunday, February 1st:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 1-Feb   30 1936  49      47 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      1-Feb   30 1979  50      52 1978     71
Sanford (SFB)       1-Feb   30 1965  51      46 1977     72
Orlando (MCO)       1-Feb   28 1936  51      48 1936     73
Melbourne (MLB)     1-Feb   32 1966  52      55 1948     72
Vero Beach (VRB)    1-Feb   29 1966  53      56 1966     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   1-Feb   32 1909  52      54 1936     74

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  24 02/18/1958   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/26/1967   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        25 02/18/1958   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      27 02/26/1967   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     28 02/24/1989   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  26  55  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  29  55  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  26  56  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  26  57  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  26  55  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  27  55  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  29  55  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  25  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
     264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
     347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy