665
FXUS62 KMLB 170542
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may
  become locally dense, especially in rural areas.

- Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is
  forecast.

- Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Just south of a large rex block over northeastern N America,
quasi-zonal flow is in place across the Southeast U.S. this
morning. Upstream, you find a shortwave ridge across the Mississippi
Valley, out ahead of additional jet stream energy on the U.S. West
Coast. As the rex block weakens to our north and additional
energy pushes into the Western U.S., mean ridging is strongly
favored to form this week across the Eastern U.S. Above-normal H5
heights arrive over Florida beginning tomorrow, lasting through
the remainder of this forecast period. Total moisture values
remain near normal on most days, but H85 temperatures warm above
normal from Tuesday onward.

At the surface, a weakening cold front is moving southward and
will arrive in Central Florida over the next 6 hours. The front
will dissipate overhead by tonight, with no appreciable cold-air
advection anticipated. High pressure is forecast to push from the
Upper Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon,
allowing onshore breezes to develop locally. High pressure should
remain firmly in control of our weather through the end of the
week as disturbances are deflected well north of the state. By
the weekend, a rather complex upper-air pattern across the
mid-latitudes lends to lower confidence in the timing of our
next cold front. There is a signal for a front to approach the
state around Sunday or Monday of next week, but with the polar
jet remaining along the U.S.-Canadian border, this front doesn`t
appear to be very impactful.

Looking ahead, the MJO is forecast to swing from phase 6 to 7 over
the 2-3 weeks. This supports a fairly typical Easterly QBO / La
Nina pattern, characterized by a baroclinic zone across the Ohio
Valley and positive height anomalies over the Gulf and SW Atlantic
("the Southeast ridge"). In this scenario, one would anticipate
warmer and drier-than-normal conditions over Florida during much of
this period. A small number (around 20%) of 16/12Z ensemble members
show a significant cold front reaching Florida just after
Thanksgiving. However, guidance hints at an MJO progression into
phase 8 as we move deeper into December. Phase 8 would increase the
potential for stronger cold fronts reaching Florida.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Wednesday...

The advancing cold front becomes ill-defined over the next 24 hours
as it stalls over Central FL. There is a slight uptick in moisture
along this feature, which supports the potential for some patchy
dense fog this morning. The signal for fog is strongest west of
Orlando over the next few hours, where the probabilities of
visibility < 1 SM reach 20-30%.

Any showers with the front should hold offshore today, leaving
us with a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon
temperatures. The return of modest onshore flow early this week
eventually drags enough moisture toward the state for low (20%)
shower chances from Tuesday into early Wednesday, mainly along the
Treasure Coast.

Highs each day range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows
should turn a bit milder, with mid/upper 50s near and north of
Orlando to the low/mid 60s at the coast. Light winds and seasonable
moisture combine for the continued potential for patchy fog each
night/early morning.

Thursday - Next Monday...

With deep-layer high pressure over the state late this week and
into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is forecast once
any patchy morning fog burns off. Highs reach the upper 70s to
mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

A cluster of guidance supports a cold frontal passage late Sunday
or next Monday, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable
rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority
of Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain
through Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A weak cold front settles over the local Atlantic before dissipating
tonight. Lingering moisture along the front will give a low chance
for a few showers through early Wednesday. Behind the front early
this week, high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley migrates
toward the Carolina coastline. Winds and seas remain generally
favorable for nearshore boating this week.

N winds 8-12 KT with seas up to 3 FT today. Winds turn NE to E from
Tuesday through the middle of the week, up to 10 KT, with seas
generally 1-3 FT except up to 4 FT in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A weak, dry front will push south across the terminals today. Ahead
of the front, areas of fog/stratus is forecast to develop toward
sunrise. The greatest probabilities from HREF for MVFR/IFR conds
will be at LEE with potential for the fog and stratus to spread E/SE
toward SFB/MCO. Have maintained TEMPO groups at these sites from 11-
14Z for IFR vis/cig at KLEE and MVFR conditions at KSFB/KMCO/KISM.
Any fog/stratus should quickly lift after sunrise, with VFR conds
returning NLT 15Z.

Light west winds ahead of the front through sunrise will veer NW 5-7
knots on Mon morning behind the front. Along the coast, winds turn
NE 7-10 knots in the afternoon which will spread inland to MCO/SFB
by 22Z-23Z before going light and variable Mon night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  64  79  65 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  79  62  80  64 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  80  58  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  80  62  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  79  62  81  63 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly