659
FXUS62 KMLB 281938
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Freeze Warning, Frost Advisory, and a Cold Weather Advisory
  remain in effect for much of east central Florida tonight into
  Thursday morning

- Significantly colder air arrives Saturday and Saturday night
  with lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens to single
  digits Sunday morning; very cold air lasting into early next
  week

- Strong, gusty winds are forecast Saturday into Sunday with gusts
  reaching 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly along the coast
  Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Now-Friday...A mostly clear sky this afternoon has offered
limited surface heating with temperatures still in the mid 50s to
low 60s. A few more clouds are building across Martin and Saint
Lucie counties, where a small plume of 0.7" PW exists. Hi-res
model soundings remain very dry, despite the thin layer of clouds,
so any light shower that does form is likely to stay offshore or
at most brush the coast. Thus, we do carry a 15-20% chance of
light rain across southeastern Martin County through sunset.

Drier air works south overnight with winds remaining light,
generally 10 mph or less. Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures
will drop quickly into the 30s after midnight. A Freeze Warning and
Frost Advisory begins at midnight and continues through 9 AM
Thursday. Probabilistic guidance remains largely unchanged,
indicating the highest chance for sub-freezing temperatures (40-60%)
across rural Volusia, Lake, south-central Osceola, and northern
Okeechobee counties. Locations in and around the Orlando metro will
likely stay a couple degrees warmer with outlying portions of
Seminole, Orange, and northern Osceola counties approaching the
freezing mark. While winds will be light, wind chill values are
still forecast to reach the mid to upper 20s over much of east
central Florida. As a result, a Cold Weather Advisory is in place,
beginning at 2 AM Thursday, excluding coastal Brevard County, the
immediate Treasure Coast, and all of Martin County. For the latest
hazards at your location, please visit weather.gov/mlb. Take steps
to protect sensitive plants from the cold.

High pressure maintains a pattern of dry weather through late week
as temperatures trend slightly warmer each day, reaching the upper
60s to low 70s Friday afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are in the
works Thursday, though a few more clouds work across the south on
Friday as moisture generally increases. Overnight lows settle into
the 40s and 50s (upper 30s across northern Lake/inland Volusia
Friday morning).

This Weekend-Tuesday (modified)...Deepening low pressure
transitioning into an eventual nor`easter is still outlined by all
available model guidance into Saturday. This low will form very
close to Florida before lifting into the Atlantic. As it passes by
early Saturday, we still carry 30-50% chances for rain showers.
Rainfall tallies still look on the light side. By late morning and
into the afternoon, a cold front passes through the area. The
initial impact will be a burst of strong west-northwest winds. Peak
wind gusts from 35-45 mph are on the table, and the latest NBME
probabilities show at least a 20% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph
inland (greater than 50% along the coast) Saturday afternoon and
evening as the deepening low tightens the surface pressure gradient.
Keep these winds in mind when considering when and how to protect
any tender vegetation before the cold air arrives!

Winds veer slightly more out of the northwest on Saturday night,
pushing Arctic air down the peninsula. Daily record lows are
anticipated on Sunday morning. Temperatures will only slowly
moderate, with additional freezes anticipated on Monday and Tuesday
morning.

Extreme cold risks have remained consistent over the last several
updates:

SUNDAY AM: There is a 60-90% chance of a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F)
on Sunday morning for all areas except Martin County (20-40%). Much
of east central Florida currently has a 70-90% chance of wind chills
in the teens.

MONDAY AM: The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) is 50-80% for
many locations, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where
the probabilities are somewhat lower (30-60%). Bitterly cold wind
chills are expected to persist, though with lighter winds (upper
teens-mid 20s).

A hard freeze is less likely Tuesday morning, though sub-freezing
temperatures remain forecast for a large portion of the area.

For additional cold weather support, including probabilities and
durations of specific temperatures for your location, visit
weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

With a widespread freeze and extreme cold event likely, residents,
officials, and agricultural operations should be preparing for cold
weather impacts. Those with inadequate shelter or heat will be most
affected. Exposed pipes may freeze, and some non-native plants and
trees will succumb to the elements if not properly protected. The
risk to non-cold-hardy plants and palms is much higher due to the
wind-driven cold that is expected.

High temperatures on Sunday should fail to reach 50 degrees near and
north of I-4, perhaps reaching the low 50s along the Treasure Coast.
By Tuesday, most spots should return to the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

High pressure remains overhead through late week, though north-
northwest winds briefly increase overnight into Thursday morning
over the Gulf Stream and portions of the nearshore waters. Seas
build up to 6 ft as result. Small craft will need to exercise
caution as this brief wind and wave height increase occurs, through
midday Thursday.

All eyes are on this weekend as a deepening low pressure system
forms offshore of the northeast FL coast, strengthening west-
northwest winds to gale force by Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night. The latest marine wind guidance came in a bit high over the
waters, especially with wind gusts, so leaned closer to the previous
forecast, maybe increasing speeds by a few knots. This level of wind
and seas building up to 15 ft offshore Sunday will create dangerous
marine conditions through the latter half of the weekend and into
early next week.

Until Saturday, seas remain 2-4 ft (up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream)
Thursday afternoon and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with N/NW wind
flow 5-10 knots inland and 10-12 knots (higher gusts) coast into
tonight. On Thu, northerly winds veer more NERLY with speeds
generally 6-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Low relative humidity values forecast Thursday afternoon will result
in fire-sensitive conditions for one more day this work week.
Moisture gradually returns to the area Friday into Saturday ahead of
a very strong cold front. A northeast breeze around 10 mph (up to 15
mph) at the coast) is anticipated Thursday afternoon, followed by
lighter winds on Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night into
early Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  35  60  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  36  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  38  64  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  36  66  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  63  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  37  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  36  67  47  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     FLZ141-247-254-547.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock