881
FXUS62 KMLB 261036
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
636 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and
  evening through the rest of the work week across Central
  Florida, with 50-70% coverage. Frequent lightning, wind gusts of
  45 to 55 mph, and localized urban flooding will be the primary
  hazards.

- Storms may begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing the
  Atlantic sea breeze farther inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s,
  with peak heat indices of 100 to 105 each day. When planning to
  be outdoors, hydrate well and consider taking frequent breaks in
  the shade or air conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains beneath a weakness between a pair of mid-level
anticyclones early this morning. Near-normal H5 heights reside over
the state, but subtle vorticity perturbations continue to meander
nearby. Total moisture values have returned to near normal over
the peninsula. Little change is expected in the overall pattern
through the remainder of the work week. The trough over the
northeast Gulf is expected to very slowly retrograde and fill,
allowing height rises across Florida. This will ensure continued
south to southwesterly flow above H85 through at least Friday. At
the surface, an axis of high pressure will attempt to move
northward, holding close to our latitude through Friday as well.

Ensemble guidance remains in strong agreement into the extended
forecast. The members bridge the mid-level highs over the Southern
U.S. and Gulf by the weekend and into early next week, allowing
surface high pressure to lift north of Florida. Near- to slightly
above-normal moisture should remain in place, but steering flow
for convection should turn onshore and deepen, lasting well into
next week.

The National Hurricane Center gives a tropical wave in the Atlantic
MDR (Main Development Region) a 70% chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next couple of days. While it is far too early
to know whether this feature will affect the U.S., it`s a reminder
to be prepared as peak hurricane season is upon us.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

A handful of storms have lasted well into the night, with frequent
lightning and brief gusty winds affecting parts of Brevard
County. This activity should dissipate late in the overnight,
leaving us with a quiet start to the day. Hi-res guidance then
suggests that a few storms will attempt to form by mid-afternoon
along the I-95 corridor as the sea breeze moves inland. Additional
storms are likely to flare up along boundary collisions with the
Gulf breeze over the interior by early evening. With ample moisture
and weak energy aloft, there is little reason to doubt high overall
coverage later today (50-60% coast, 60-70% interior).

As in recent days, the primary threats remain frequent lightning,
wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and torrential rainfall. HREF members
show a 10% chance of rainfall amounts reaching 3 inches today,
especially over the interior. If this occurs over urban areas,
localized flooding may result.

Widespread low to mid 90s once again today, with max heat indices
100-105.

Thursday - Friday...

No major changes to the expected weather setup as we wrap the work
week. Light surface winds will allow for a fairly robust sea breeze
circulation, while moderate south-southwest flow persists above
5,000 ft. This portends daily rounds of showers and storms with
fairly high coverage (50-70%) in the afternoon and evening. Storm
threats will be similar to what is expected later today. With the
light offshore steering flow, a few storms may push back toward
the coast, especially on Thursday evening. Beach-goers should
monitor the western sky and seek sturdy shelter if you hear thunder.

Expect seasonably hot and humid conditions before the storms form
both days.

Weekend - Middle Of Next Week...

As high pressure builds and gains latitude, onshore flow will
become established through the lowest 10,000 feet. Scattered storms
should form each day on the advancing sea breeze, with an eventual
collision with the Gulf breeze either near or west of Orlando and
the Kissimmee Basin by evening. Beachside locations will have the
best chance of staying dry, while some interior locales will likely
see a storm each afternoon. Some modulation may occur from day to
day due to moisture fluctuations in the onshore flow regime. Expect
no substantial change to our seasonable heat and humidity as we
round out August.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

An axis of high pressure will slowly move northward, reaching the
local Atlantic waters by Thursday and remaining nearly stationary
through Friday. Light winds persist, becoming onshore and
somewhat enhanced near the coast by the afternoon sea breeze. A
few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong wind gusts remain
possible through at least Thursday. By the weekend, the surface
high lifts north of the area, with favorable boating conditions
expected.

Light S/SW winds overnight turning SE in the afternoon, up to
around 12 kt. Winds become E/SE this weekend. Seas 2 ft or less
through Friday, then 2-3 ft this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Light S winds this morning will turn out of the SE behind the sea
breeze at coastal terminals by 17Z. Deeper moisture will be
present so expect a higher coverage of SHRA/TSRA. Have inserted
TEMPO TS for most sites roughly 20Z-24Z but could spill over past
00Z over the interior terminals and show VCSH for that
possibility. Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the
stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  74 /  60  30  60  30
MCO  95  75  94  75 /  80  50  70  40
MLB  91  75  91  76 /  50  20  60  10
VRB  91  74  91  75 /  50  20  60  20
LEE  93  74  92  75 /  60  40  70  30
SFB  94  75  93  75 /  70  40  70  40
ORL  94  75  93  76 /  70  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  90  75 /  50  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly