874
FXUS62 KMLB 032252
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
652 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Wet weather pattern next several days with increased
  winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy
  rainfall. Localized flooding will be a concern through the
  weekend and possibly into early next week, especially along the
  coast where a Flood Watch has been issued through at least
  Saturday night.

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions including life-
  threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near
  times of high tide, will continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Sloppy pattern over Florida as a
weakening cutoff low meanders in the base of ridging over the
eastern US. Somewhat elongated surface high pressure centered over
the Mid-Atlantic seaboard roughly parallels the coast, with a
fairly tight north-northeasterly pressure gradient on the southern
side draped across Florida, resulting in east-northeast winds
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to
30 mph along the coast. This brisk onshore flow laden with low-
level moisture is whipping up scattered to at times numerous quick
moving showers, but drier air aloft is keeping nearly all this
activity low-topped. Have seen a few sporadic lightning storms
down south closer to higher moisture associated with a remnant
frontal boundary extending from Southeast Florida to The Bahamas,
but that`s about it. This is also where banding/training of
moderate to heavy showers has been occurring most frequently, but
given the lack of deep moisture and forcing in the immediate area,
rainfall rates have rarely exceeded 1"/hr since earlier this
morning. Latest HREF/RRFS 6-hr 90th percentile accumulations are
topping out at 2-3", indicating the threat for flash flooding
today has decreased and today`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
has been dropped. That said, this is a marathon not a sprint, and
the cumulative effects of rounds/bands of heavy rainfall over
several days could gradually lead to minor flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage area as soils become saturated and the
effectiveness of drainage decreases. We`re already seeing some
recurring flooding in low-lying areas, particularly in spots
prone to flooding along the Intracoastal Waterway as increasing
tides as the king tides approach compound the issue. The coastal
corridor remains highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all East
Central Florida coastal counties, and the Coastal Flood Advisory
has been extended to include the whole coast and Intracoastal
Waterways.

At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft will continue to
pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life-
threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune line will
continue to cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high
tide which will occur between 4-7am and again 4-7pm (the higher
of the two) the next few days.

Saturday-Sunday...The cutoff low aloft further erodes as ridging
over the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard in response to
troughing over the western US. Surface high pressure over the
eastern US centered near the Mid-Atlantic seaboard shifts slowly
offshore, but the tight easterly pressure gradient on the southern
side of the high remains draped across Florida and the local
Atlantic waters. A weak surface low has developed over the Bahamas
about 300 miles southeast of Saint Lucie Inlet, which NHC
continues to only give a very low (10%) chance of tropical
development due to unfavorable upper level winds. Confidence in
the evolution of this feature has been low due to weak forcing and
lack of a developed feature, which is unfortunate because it has
considerable implications for our forecast this weekend and
beyond. Now that a feature has finally developed seeing better
model agreement from the 12Z suite, with both the GFS and ECM
bringing a very weak low/wave west-northwest towards South
Florida, further tightening the pressure gradient across Central
Florida that would continue hazardous coastal and marine
conditions, and bringing additional moisture that would support a
heavy rainfall threat. However, the pace this plays out is slower
than previous guidance suggested, and currently seeing the
greatest potential for heavy rainfall shifting into Sunday, but
will need a couple more forecast cycles before we can more
confidently say when and where (and frankly if) a scenario
supporting substantial heavy rainfall will materialize. In the
meantime, the brisk onshore flow will remain sufficient enough to
whip up scattered to numerous onshore moving showers regardless of
development/evolution of the wave/low, banding/training of
moderate to heavy showers will remain possible, and locations that
receive multiple rounds will become increasingly susceptible to
flooding. In particular are coastal Volusia and Martin counties
where soils are reaching saturation. The East Central Florida
coast continues to be outlined in Marginal (level 1 of 4) and
Slight (level 2 of 4) risks for excessive rainfall where coastal
convergence maximizes the threat, a Flood Watch remains in effect
for all ECFL coastal counties, and a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect for all ECFL coastal zones, including the
Intracoastal Waterways.

Beach and marine conditions will remain hazardous, and could even
worsen depending how the low/wave evolves. High Surf Advisories,
Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect. We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns River
where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river flooding. The
river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at Astor.

Monday-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Moist onshore
flow is forecast to continue into early next week then eventually
some drier air is forecast to move in, but there confidence when
this happens is low at this time. The official forecast based on
06Z guidance starts drying by Tuesday, but the incoming 12Z
guidance hints at prolonging high rain chances a bit longer, and
the threat for heavy rainfall. Model guidance is at least
consistent showing another strong high pressure developing over
the eastern CONUS mid week, keeping a brisk onshore flow through
the week, then late in the week bringing back moisture supporting
onshore moving showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions are occurring over the local Atlc waters as tight NE to
E pressure gradient around sfc high along the eastern seaboard
supports ENE winds at 20-25 knots. These winds and long period
swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous
conditions will persist through the weekend. A weak low has
developed over The Bahamas, and could further tighten the pressure
gradient, but there is some uncertainty how much and when. There
should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient early next week
as winds turn E-SE behind the departing low. While speeds should
dip below 20 knots esp across the southern waters, seas will be
slow to subside. A further extension of the SCA appears likely for
the offshore waters into early next week. Meanwhile, moisture
increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers
and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water
lightning this weekend into early next week. Some drying should
eventually move in from the northeast mid-week but it looks short-
lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Deep ENE wind flow persists through the period, with gusts over 20
KT at times. Primarily a VFR regime, with ocnl MVFR/IFR
restrictions in the vicinity of passing showers. Rain chances
continue through the period - but coverage makes it a bit
difficult to pin down TEMPOs beyond 6 hours of issuance time.
Therefore, kept VCSH and will AMD as trends require.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  83  74  84 /  50  60  60  70
MCO  72  84  74  86 /  30  50  40  60
MLB  75  84  75  84 /  50  60  60  60
VRB  75  84  75  85 /  50  60  60  60
LEE  72  84  73  85 /  20  40  30  60
SFB  73  84  74  85 /  40  60  50  70
ORL  73  84  74  85 /  40  50  40  70
FPR  75  84  75  86 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Heil