161
FXUS62 KMLB 280541
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
141 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms near and west of
  Orlando into this evening. A few storms may become strong, with
  wind gusts exceeding 50 mph and frequent lightning.

- The High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today
  at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Please stay out of
  the surf.

- An unsettled and humid weather pattern kicks off on Thursday,
  lasting at least into early next week. High coverage of
  afternoon and evening storms is expected, even at the coast.
  There is at least a limited threat of localized flooding in
  urban and poorly drained areas from repeated rounds of heavy
  rain over several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A bit higher coverage of late morning and
early afternoon showers and storms than previous expected.
However, the overall forecast remains on track for the remainder
of the day and into tonight.

High pressure off of the Southeast US coast is producing
generally southerly steering flow, made clear by the northward
motion of ongoing convection. However, breezy southeasterly flow
15-20 mph along the coast, with 25-30 mph has developed behind the
sea breeze. Expect the sea breeze to continue inland this
afternoon, with a collision over the center of the peninsula, near
to just west of the Orlando metro. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms (PoPs 50-70%) are forecast. Lingering drier air in the
mid- levels, producing DCAPE values between 900-1100 J/kg will
support the threat for isolated stronger wind gusts 50+ mph, in
addition to lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Peak
convective timing looks to be between 6-10 PM, though a few
showers and storms may linger through midnight to early morning.

Then, CAMs suggest additional showers and storms developing over
the eastern Gulf, drifting into the local forecast area towards
morning. This eastward movement will be generated by increasingly
southwesterly steering flow aloft, which should conversely help
keep most convection offshore along the Treasure Coast compared to
previous days. Tonight, overnight lows remain in the 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...A trough moving off of the Northeast US coast
will usher in a pattern change that looks to persist through at
least mid-week next week. The aforementioned ridge is nudged
southward by the trough Thursday, elongating near the Straits of
Florida through the weekend. Light southwesterly to westerly winds
develop, which will aid in daily sea breeze collisions over the
eastern half of the peninsula, near the coast.

That alone would suggest an increase in PoPs. However, deep
tropical moisture is forecast to advect into the area from the
Gulf, increasing PWATs to around 2+" through at least Saturday.
Aided by weak passing shortwaves aloft, PoPs look to become
widespread 70-80% Thursday through the weekend. Despite the high
PoPs, most convection looks to occur in the afternoons and into
the evenings before moving offshore, as opposed to true washouts.
Exact rainfall accumulations will be dependent on where individual
showers and storms setup. Although, widespread accumulations
1.5-2.5" are expected, with isolated totals 3+". Rainfall will be
beneficial due to ongoing drought conditions. But, localized
flooding concerns may develop in areas that see multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall over several days, especially urban areas.

Temperatures are forecast to see little change into the weekend,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the
70s. High humidity will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to
low 100s.

Next Week...Uncertainty lingers next week, as models continue to
try to resolve an approaching cool front. Whether this front
stalls near the area and where it does so are the main differences
in the global models. Regardless, high coverage of showers and
storms (70-80%) looks to persist, with southwesterly flow
continuing to favor a dominant west coast sea breeze. A more
organized area of locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat
along the front, which may exacerbate any flooding concerns that
develop through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Poor boating conditions south of Cape Canaveral this afternoon due
to southeasterly winds 15-20 kts. Winds slacken this evening and
into tonight, as high pressure off of the Southeast US coast
begins to shift southward. Prevailing flow then becomes
southwesterly to westerly into the weekend, though a weak sea
breeze looks to develop along the coast in the afternoons through
Friday. High coverage of showers and storms (PoPs 50-70%) develops
Thursday into early next week. Convection is mainly forecast to
develop near the coast in the afternoons, drifting offshore
through the evening and overnight hours. Seas 4-5 ft this
afternoon become 1-3 ft through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Light and variable winds around 5 knots will persist at the
terminals through early morning, picking up to 5 to 10 knots out
of the SW across the interior and SE along the coast as the east
coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Predominant SW flow
will favor a sea breeze collision across the eastern portion of
the peninsula, with VCTS chances increasing after 19Z. Opted to
wait on adding TEMPOs to allow for better agreement on timing
between model guidance, but will likely need TEMPOs for TSRA at
MCO, ISM, SFB, DAB, and TIX. Cannot rule out for MLB. Showers and
storms will diminish after 00Z, with a return of light and
variable winds through the overnight hours areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  88  73 /  70  40  70  30
MCO  89  73  89  74 /  70  40  70  30
MLB  88  75  88  75 /  80  50  60  40
VRB  89  73  89  74 /  80  60  60  50
LEE  88  75  90  75 /  70  20  60  20
SFB  91  74  91  74 /  70  40  70  30
ORL  89  75  90  75 /  70  40  70  30
FPR  88  73  88  74 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Tollefsen