818
FXUS62 KMLB 181943
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Patchy morning fog and a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
  currents are our notable hazards this week.

- Temperatures continue to nudge above normal as high pressure
  stays in control.

- Outdoor plans will be greeted with plenty of sunshine. Most
  locales will remain rain-free for at least the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Current-Tonight... A thin layer of low-level moisture has produced a
deck of scattered cumulus clouds along the Treasure Coast and near
Okeechobee. CAMs suggest this moisture could be enough to initiate
isolated to scattered showers across the Treasure Coast waters.
However, a weak sea breeze has developed, and its subsidence should
limit most of this activity from moving too far inland. Outside of
an occasional shower brushing the immediate Treasure Coast, most
of east central Florida is expected to remain dry through the
remainder of the day.

Looking towards tonight, conditions become favorable for another
round of patchy fog. Localized visibilities of less than one mile
will be possible with any fog that develops. If encountering fog
on roadways late tonight or early Wednesday morning, slow down,
use low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of
you. Low temperatures remain seasonal, mostly in the upper 50s and
low 60s.

Wednesday-Thursday... Weak low pressure moves offshore the mid-
Atlantic coast Wednesday. The attached surface boundary sinks into
portions of the southeastern U.S., but high pressure in place
locally will keep it north of Florida. Conditions remain generally
favorable for patchy fog development across much of east central
Florida again Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions persist
through the period, and there are no mentionable rain chances.
Temperatures climb only a few degrees above normal each afternoon,
reaching the low 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to range the mid
to upper 50s across the interior with upper 50s and low 60s along
the coast.

Friday-Monday... High pressure gets reinforced locally as surface
ridging builds over the western Atlantic late this week. The ridge
then flattens this weekend as a cold front approaches from the west-
northwest. A limited moisture column keeps confidence low for any
rain chances associated with the front, and dry conditions are
forecast to persist. High temperatures hold steady, mostly in the
low to mid 80s. Low temperatures ranging the mid to upper 50s across
the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast warm a few
degrees into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

High pressure moves offshore the eastern seaboard into tonight,
becoming reinforced by a second area of high pressure moving
offshore late week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast outside of a
few showers this afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds
generally remain less than 10 kts through this week. Seas building 3-
4 ft across the Gulf Stream subside Wednesday, becoming widely 1-2
ft by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Weak high pressure is producing a relaxed pressure gradient with
L/V winds gradually transitioning to light onshore component.
Winds will become L/V to calm this evening and overnight. Skies
MClear. A few light Atlc showers may approach the coast later
today/tonight and will monitor - but for now keeping "Vicinity"
mention out of coastal TAFs. Patchy fog (MVFR/local IFR conds)
possible late overnight into early Wed morning. Inclusion into TAF
sites may eventually be necessary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

modified previous... Over the next couple of days, seasonably deep
mixing (4+ KFT) should tap into some drier air aloft over northern
portions of east central Florida. Away from the coast and along the
I-4 corridor, RH minima are forecast to range from 40-45% Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon. Afternoon breezes becoming NE less than 10
mph. Light to calm winds and excellent RH recovery are forecast each
night, so smoke from any fires will have the potential to mix with
patchy fog.

Although sensitive across the interior through mid week, RH values
are expected to remain above elevated or critical thresholds in all
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  81  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  60  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  80  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  61  81  62  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  82  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  61  81  62  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Sedlock