848
FXUS62 KMLB 021954
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
254 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- The Flood Watch has been extended through Tuesday morning for
  the coastal counties and Okeechobee County. Heavy rainfall
  amounts up to 16 to 22 inches across southern Brevard County
  since midnight have led to widespread flooding from the
  Melbourne area south to Grant- Valkaria. Turn around, don`t
  drown. Do not drive into flooded roadways.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to rough seas
  and brisk easterly winds. 5-7 ft breakers and numerous, life-
  threatening rip currents are expected today at our beaches. Do
  not enter the ocean! Minor to moderate tidal flooding remains
  possible, mainly south of St Lucie Inlet.

- Rain chances gradually decrease from mid to late week, with high
  temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s each day. A more
  significant cold front may arrive in about a week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Heavy to extreme rainfall has occurred
over portions of the coastline, with multiple communities
inundated. The mid-level disturbance is forecast to weaken into
tonight, providing some relief. However, persistent, heavy
showers and storms remain a threat through the afternoon hours
along the Treasure Coast. As we transition into the evening and
overnight, PoPs are forecast to decrease, but scattered, onshore
moving showers (PoPs up to 50%), will remain possible. Any
additional rainfall will inhibit the ability for water to drain,
so have continued the Flood Watch for Okeechobee and the coastal
counties through the overnight hours. Wave heights appear to have
lingered higher than previously forecast, so have extended the
High Surf Advisory into tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The disturbance that has produced heavy
rainfall over portions of the area will wash out through mid-week,
diminishing the overall threat. However, high PWATs 1.7-2" linger
over the area through Wednesday, with an upper level disturbance
over the western Atlantic. Therefore, scattered showers and a few
storms remain forecast, especially Tuesday (PoPs 30-60%). While
additional rainfall totals of 1-2" are possible, any additional
rainfall could exacerbate ongoing, lingering flooding. Thus, the
Flood Watch has been extended through 10 AM for the coast and
Okeechobee County. Continued breezy onshore winds Tuesday, with
gusts 20-25 mph, will slacken into Wednesday, as the pressure
gradient slackens. High temperatures will remain warm, in the
lower to mid-80s, while onshore flow keeps low temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday-Sunday...A series of upper level shortwaves look to
transit the area late week and into this weekend. While
temperature changes will be limited, drier air (nearer to normal
PWATs) will filter into the area, providing a welcome break from
the higher coverage of showers. While some rain will be possible,
current PoPs are limited to around 20% or less. Lighter winds
become NNW through the weekend, helping to give some relief to the
persistent onshore flow. Temperatures are forecast to remain
warm, only decreasing to near normal (lower 80s) during the
daytime hours. Overnight lows fall slightly, but remain in the 60s
for most areas. A stronger, drier front will approach the area
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue. Fresh easterly flow in
a tight pressure gradient over Florida continues to cause rough
seas over the local Atlantic. Strong high pressure will remain
north of the waters early this week, before gradually weakening
by midweek. An upper-level disturbance will continue to spark
scattered to numerous showers and a few storms through Tuesday.
More tranquil conditions by mid to late week will improve boating
conditions. A diffuse cold front is expected to reach the area
late Friday into Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories continue through Tuesday afternoon for all
of the Atlantic and extend into Tuesday night for the offshore
waters. East winds 15-20 kts on Tuesday slacken to below 15 kts
Wednesday, then veer offshore into late week. Seas 7-9ft this
afternoon diminish through the period, but remain poor to
hazardous into late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 104 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

NMRS SHRA/Isold TSRA will continue in the KTIX-KSUA corridor thru
22z and progress gradually inland toward KMCO-KISM from 22z-03z.
Brief lowering of CIGS to 010 and IFR Vsbys will accompany the
heavy rainfall. Deep moisture continues across central FL with
onshore easterly flow, gusty at times for cstl terminals through
this evening. Some banded showers should move inland overnight
with scattered Atlantic showers bringing a chance of passing
showers at coastal terminals. Have included VCSH for cstl
terminals thru 14z, with shower chcs redeveloping for interior
airports aft 03/14z in the moist easterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  81  71  82 /  50  30  10  20
MCO  70  83  71  85 /  30  50  10  30
MLB  72  83  73  83 /  60  50  20  20
VRB  72  84  73  85 /  50  60  40  20
LEE  69  84  69  86 /  20  40  10  50
SFB  71  84  71  85 /  40  40  10  30
ORL  71  83  71  85 /  30  50  10  30
FPR  71  83  72  84 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ041-058-141-154-159-
     164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ044>046-053-144.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Volkmer