822
FXUS62 KMLB 271900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of east central
  Florida today, with heat indices 102-112 degrees.

- High temperatures in the 90s and humid conditions will maintain
  hot and humid conditions through at least mid-week. Additional
  Heat Advisories will be likely.

- Increasing moisture late week and into the weekend will lead to
  higher coverage of showers and storms; Marginal Risk for
  Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows isolated to widely
scattered generally south-southeast moving showers and lighting
storms along, as well as north of I-4. GOES-16 satellite imagery
and local observations shows partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Analysis charts show low pressure (1010mb) over the southwest
Atlantic with a stationary boundary that extends from the low
across the southwest Atlantic and northern Florida. Current
temperatures are in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees, in addition to heat index values
generally up to 105-112F degrees. The highest heat index values
are across northern ECFL where a Heat Advisory is in effect until
8PM.

Scattered to numerous generally southeast moving showers (60-70%
chance) and lightning storms are forecast to increase in coverage
this afternoon and evening as collisions occur between west-
southwest flow, the east coast sea breeze, and outflow from
previous showers/lightning storms. Rain chances gradually reduce
after 7pm. The potential exists for isolated strong storms. The
main hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess
of 3" up to 4-5"). WSW winds at 5-10mph are expected this
afternoon with winds backing onshore into this evening. Lows in
the mid 70s to near 80F degrees are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Rain chances will trend lower tomorrow
(40-60%) and especially on Wednesday with drier air due to
increasing offshore flow. However, a similar forecast to today is
expected on Tuesday as the aforementioned stationary
boundary sags southwards coupled with PWATs between 2.0-2.4."
Rain chances decrease further on Wednesday with isolated to
scattered showers (20-40% chance) forecast (variable storm
motions) to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. The main
hazards will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and
heavy rainfall (1-3" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 3" up to
4-5" on Tuesday and 1-2" with a 1 in 10 chance in excess of 2" up
to 3" on Wednesday). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s are
forecast with heat index values up to 105-112F degrees (highest
across N ECFL on Tuesday and across all of ECFL on Wednesday).
Above normal (1-4F+) lows in the mid 70s to around 80F degrees are
forecast. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is expected with portions
of Lake county in an Extreme Heat Risk. This level of heat affects
anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Remember to
practice heat safety such as wearing light clothing, shifting
outdoor work away from the hours of 10AM-4PM, drink plenty of
fluids, and take frequent breaks from the heat.


Thursday-Sunday... Rain chances increase late week and remain
high through at least Saturday as a stationary boundary stalls
over the southern US. The potential exists for isolated strong to
marginally severe storms Thursday-Saturday. However, the trends
with the NBM have been a lowering in the POPs in the extended
forecast and MOS data suggests that the probability of
precipitation are a little too high. Scattered to widespread
showers (50-90% highest across N ECFL) and lightning storms are
forecast on Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms forecast Friday, as well as Saturday with
decreasing rain chances on Sunday. There is a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall (5-14% risk) for much of ECFL on Thursday and
Friday. The heat decreases with the higher rain chances with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s forecast.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of showers and lightning storms. Scattered to numerous
generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms are
forecast this evening. The potential exists for isolated lightning
storms capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts. SW winds at
5-15kts are expected with seas to 1-2ft nearshore (0-60nm) and up
to 3ft offshore.

Tuesday-Friday (previous forecast discussion)... A low pressure
system moves offshore from the Northeast US mid-week which will
tighten the pressure gradient locally. SW flow is expected to
increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday night through Thursday night. Winds
have the potential to reach 20-25 kts briefly Wednesday night
well offshore. Seas are forecast to build to 2-4 ft with up to 5
ft forecast north of Sebastian Inlet Wednesday night. Boating
conditions improve into Friday and the weekend as SW flow
diminishes and seas return to 1-3 ft. However, an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast through the period
with activity moving offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Morning showers have lessened confidence in where convection will
develop this afternoon. Based on latest guidance and trends, it
seems heightened coverage will be favored near SFB/LEE/DAB, and
MLB southward, where more heating is occurring and boundary
interactions should take place. PROB30 for TS at MCO looks on
target due to the slightly lower expected coverage in the
vicinity. Storms should diminish after sunset. Similar to
yesterday, will be monitoring for convective gusts over 35 KT from
the strongest storms and brief IFR/LIFR. Light WSW flow up to 12
KT persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  78  95 /  10  40  10  20
MCO  77  95  78  95 /  30  50  20  30
MLB  76  92  77  93 /  30  50  20  20
VRB  74  92  75  93 /  40  60  20  30
LEE  79  94  79  93 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  78  95  79  95 /  20  40  10  20
ORL  78  94  79  94 /  30  50  20  30
FPR  74  91  75  93 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-
     144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Heil