005
FXUS62 KMLB 312323
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Above-normal coverage of showers and storms continues through
  the weekend. A few strong storms are forecast, capable of
  producing gusty winds up to 40-50 mph (less than 5% chance of a
  storm or two capable of wind gusts up to 60mph), frequent
  lightning, and torrential rainfall leading to localized
  flooding.

- Unsettled weather slowly transitions toward more normal
  summertime conditions by next Tuesday or Wednesday as high
  pressure builds over the state; Marginal Risk for excessive
  rainfall today and tomorrow

- Seasonably hot conditions each day ahead of the storms. Very
  muggy with peak heat indices up to around 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers
and storms moving east at around 15mph mainly offshore the
Volusia to Brevard county coasts, in addition to, over the
Treasure Coast. A few strong storms have developed which have
produced wind gusts up to 43mph (radar indicated up to 60mph at
Cape Canaveral earlier). GOES-16 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with
stratocumulus and cumulonimbus clouds moving east, as well as
cirrus clouds moving south. Analysis charts show a stationary
boundary over the deep south with a mid/upper level trough over
the western Atlantic and northeastern Florida. The 18:30Z MCO
ACARS sounding indicates MLCAPE at 1,446 J/kg, DCAPE at 961 J/kg,
PWAT value of 2.002", and weak shear. Additionally, the MDPI value
is 1.0 today. Temperatures are currently in the mid 80s to low
90s with heat index values up to 100F-108F degrees (hottest over
Martin and Okeechobee counties). Muggy conditions are in place
across east central Florida with dew points in the mid 70s to
around 80F degrees.

Scattered to numerous showers (60-80% chance) are forecast across
east central Florida this afternoon and early evening before rain
chances diminish around 7PM from northwest to southeast.
Scattered storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 40-50mph
(less than 5% chance of a storm or two capable of wind gusts up to
60mph), frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (isolated amounts
of 1-3" with a 5-14% chance of isolated amounts up to 3-5"). For
this reason a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists for east
central Florida today with the potential for flooding of roadways
and low-lying areas. Mostly dry weather is forecast overnight
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

The Weekend... A shortwave trough is expected to develop over the
Florida panhandle and eastern Gulf on Saturday and Sunday. Rain
chances (60-80% chance) remain high through the weekend with PWATs
in excess of 2" coupled with increased lift for shower and
lightning storm development. Scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop each afternoon and
evening as a weak east coast sea breeze backs onshore mainly along
the coastal counties and converges with southwest surface winds
on Saturday with the sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous
storms. Gradient winds are expected to increase on Sunday with
850mb winds up to 25-35kts. Surface winds at 10-15mph from the
southwest with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast which will likely
prevent the east coast sea breeze from developing north of Cape
Canaveral and will keep the greatest rain chances from Cape
Canaveral southwards on Sunday.

The Atlantic ridge is expected to build over Florida on Sunday.
Model guidance shows MLCAPE up to 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km shear up
to 20-45kts on Saturday, as well a 15-35kts on Sunday. The main
hazards with isolated to scattered strong to marginally severe
storms will be wind gusts up to 40-50mph (less than 5% chance of a
storm or two capable of wind gusts up to 60mph on Sunday). A
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists on Saturday (isolated
amounts up to 1-3" with a 5% chance of isolated rainfall amounts
up to 3-4" with the potential for flooding of roadways and low-
lying areas). Near normal afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low
90s and lows in the low to mid 70s are forecast.

Monday-Thursday... Higher than normal rain chances continue into
Monday with PWATs in excess of 2". The Atlantic ridge is expected
to continue to build over Florida into next week which will
result in a return to closer to normal rain chances on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds are forecast to weaken from the southwest at
5-10mph on Monday, back south on Tuesday, and back east on
Wednesday with onshore flow in place through Thursday. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to develop in the afternoon along the
coast on Monday and across most of east central Florida Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will
be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Near normal afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
with lows generally in the low to mid 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected
with the Atlantic ridge axis to the southeast of the local
Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast. Isolated to scattered storms will
be capable of wind gusts to 34kts or greater. West-southwest winds
at 5-15mph with gusts to 15-20mph are expected with seas to
1-2ft.

Saturday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected to
become choppy to hazardous on Sunday and Sunday night over the
offshore (20-60nm) waters, in addition to, the nearshore Volusia
county waters. West-southwest winds at 5-15mph are forecast to
back south saturday afternoon with the east coast sea breeze
developing nearshore before surface winds increase from the south
Sunday into Sunday night. Wind speeds to 15-20kts from the south
are forecast over the offshore (20-60nm) waters, in addition to,
the nearshore Volusia county waters with south winds at 6-12kts
across the nearshore Brevard to Treasure Coast waters Sunday into
Sunday night. Winds are forecast to gradually weaken on Monday
from the south at 6-12kts before backing onshore on Tuesday. Seas
to 1-2ft nearshore and up to 3ft offshore (20-60nm) are expected
to build to 1-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore Volusia to
Brevard county offshore waters Sunday into Sunday night before
weakening on Monday, as well as Tuesday. Generally, offshore
moving showers and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon
and evening through the weekend. Isolated to scattered lightning
storms will be capable of wind gusts in excess of 34kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A few unworked areas of ECFL with ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection still
possible thru early evening (i.e. KMLB). Will handle with "VC"
wording and TEMPO groups as necessary. Uncertain about WCFL
convection if it makes it to KLEE and points further east, but
will monitor and AMD here or elsewhere as well. Otherwise light
SW/W winds tonight. Will probably see another early start to
convection on Sat, though WRLY storm motion will be a bit slower
than today. Have first guess "VC" wording with the 00Z TAF package
and suspect next (06Z) TAF package could see inclusion of TEMPO
groups for Sat with SCT-NMRS convective coverage expected again.
Will see storms push off of the east coast in the afternoon/early
evening. Could see more of an appearance of the ECSB on Sat than
today, which would promote pulse strong storms near the coast.
SW/WSW winds 5-10 kts with some higher gusts and "backing" of
winds expected near the coast where the sea breeze is able to
develop - though inland movement will be futile.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  89 /  20  80  30  70
MCO  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
MLB  75  90  75  90 /  30  80  20  80
VRB  73  91  73  90 /  30  70  30  80
LEE  75  89  75  87 /  20  70  50  70
SFB  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
FPR  73  90  73  89 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock