390
FXUS62 KMLB 121931
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
231 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

- Gradual warming as high pressure settles over Florida, but a few
  cool mornings remain in store through the weekend.

- Dry weather is forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today-Tonight...Another record chilly start to the day for Sanford
who reached 40F tying the record for the day last set in 1968,
Daytona Beach who reached 39F breaking the record of 40F for the
day set in 1995, and Leesburg who reached 37F breaking the record
of 38F for the day set in 1991. Surface high pressure centered
near the Nature Coast settling over Florida ushers in a period of
quiet weather and gradual warming. While the record cold weather
and frost potential are now behind us, temperatures today and
tonight remain below normal, with afternoon highs in the U60s-L70s
and chilly overnight lows dropping back into mostly the the 40s,
except along the southern coast in the 50s. Only cloud cover is
down south from the Treasure Coast to around Lake Okeechobee where
there`s a hint of moisture, but certainly not capable of
supporting rain, and dry conditions continue. Winds have relaxed,
veering from west to northwesterly up north to northerly down
south at 5 to 10 mph around the high.

Thursday-Tuesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...A weak backdoor
front Friday quietly reinforces surface high pressure over
Florida, causing the center of the high to meander a bit, while
maintaining near-zero rain chances through early next week. The
Euro continues to hint at a potential weak front drifting
southward early next week that could bring some low rain chances,
but the GFS still keeps it north of the area, so the official
forecast remains dry given the low confidence in a low chance of
showers. Winds remain below 15 mph through the weekend and into
next week, veering from the north- northeast to out of the
southeast to southwest through the weekend, further veering to
the west to northwest early next week. Gradual warming is expected
through mid next week, even if we get the weak front. Afternoon
highs remain below normal in the L-M70s Thursday, returning to
near normal in the U70s-L80s Friday through Monday or so, then
ticking a few degrees above normal by midweek. Lows remain on the
cooler side through the weekend but the record cool weather is now
in the rear view mirror. Morning temperatures Thursday range from
the M40s north of I-4 to the L-M50s along the Treasure Coast as
flow becomes gradually more onshore, increasing to the U40s-L60s
Friday morning, L50s-M60s Saturday and Sunday mornings, then back
to near normal in the U50s-M60s by Monday morning. Could see some
morning fog, mainly Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through the weekend as high
pressure settles over Florida and the local Atlantic waters. A
weak backdoor front quietly arriving Friday reinforcing the high,
causing the center of the high to meander a bit late this week,
before an approaching cold front pushes the high eastward early
next week.

Winds today veering from WNW-NW north of the Cape to NNE-NE become
generally Nrly Thursday, NNE-NE Friday, variable Saturday though
generally shifting from the NE-ENE in the morning to SW-SE
overnight, becoming W-SW Sunday, at 15 kts or less as the center
of the high wanders around. Seas 2-4 ft. A light marine sprinkle
over Atlantic waters south of the Cape Thursday onward can`t be
ruled out, but heavy rain and lightning storms aren`t forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with SKC/FEW300 across the
area. WNW winds generally 10 KT or less will veer NE along the
coast later this afternoon. Winds become light and variable
overnight before becoming N/NNE by mid morning and increasing to
5-8 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions today, primarily north of the
I-4 corridor, due to minimum RH values below 30%. Min RHs between
40-60% across the rest of the area. Winds today are forecast to
remain below critical thresholds, veering from the W-NW in the
northern counties to the NNE-NE in the southern counties at 5-10
mph around high pressure centered over the Northeast Gulf.
Conditions slowly improve late this week as moisture increases,
with minimum RH values increasing to generally above 35%, except
Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties Thursday at around 35%,
and winds remaining below 15 mph. (Modified Previous Discussion)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  50  73  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  51  74  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  46  74  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  74  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  48  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  51  74  55  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson