849
FXUS62 KMLB 301821
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Scattered to Numerous showers with embedded lightning forecast
  along the Treasure Coast (perhaps Brevard too) late tonight into
  Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible here.

- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all central Florida
  Atlantic beaches again today. Never enter the water alone and
  always swim near a lifeguard!

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  late week and into early next week, with a warming trend
  expected through at least this weekend. Heat indices may reach
  the low 100s by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps near to slightly above climo in
the U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices in the L-M90s. Increasing
moisture across the region providing for considerable cloudiness
over ECFL. Weak high pressure exists along the Eastern Seaboard. A
diffuse sea breeze has developed at the coast and will push inland
thru the afternoon/early evening. Unsettled aloft with some
troughing as well as temps at 500 mb -6.5C to -7.5C. Expecting
diurnal rain chances this aftn/evening 25-50% - highest coverage
south and across the interior. Primary storm impacts will be
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph locally, and
heavy downpours.

Later tonight...coverage across the Treasure Coast sneaks back up to
SCT-NMRS (40-60%) as a slug of moisture is forecast to produce
onshore-moving showers/storms. Further north, coverage along the
coast will be ISOLD-SCT (20-40%). Later shifts may feel the need
to increase PoPs along the coast with further confidence or by
monitoring trends. With some of this activity across the Treasure
Coast (late overnight/early Thu morning), we may have to watch
for some localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding if CAMs are
to be believed. This activity may be low-topped but efficient
with high precip rates. Warm and humid conditions anticipated
overnight, with mins in the L-M70s.

Thu-Fri...Mid-level ridging centered over the southeast U.S. will
slowly drift south/east into the western Atlc and off of the FL east
coast. At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coast will get
nudged into the western Atlc with assoc ridge axis remaining north
of ECFL. E/SE winds will deepen in the low-levels and enhanced
each afternoon at the surface with sea breeze formation and march
inland. Moisture also increases further over the area (PWATs
2.0-2.3"). Temperatures warm a bit in the mid-levels but we will
still have occasional weak shortwave impulses traverse the area
that will aid convection (40-70%) - highest along the coast during
the morning, then diurnally across the interior. Primary storm
hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
locally heavy downpours. A few ISOLD strong storms may occur.

Max/min temps near/slightly above normal with highs in the
U80s-L90s and lows in the L-U70s. Peak heat indices will approach
98-103F. Highest low temp values at the coast.

Sat-Wed...Previous Modified...A mid-upper level ridge will build
over the Florida peninsula this weekend and begin to break down
early next week with the approach of a trough. At the surface, a
weakening cold front will move into the Deep South this weekend
before shifting south into north Florida early next week and into
central Florida late Mon into Tue, possibly retreating back north
Tue overnight/Wed. Locally, east to southeast surface winds will
dominate through at least Sun, before winds become east to
northeast and increase a bit by Tue as the front moves through the
area. Deep moisture (PWATs > 2") will remain in place, which will
enable PoPs to continue 50-70% areawide this weekend. As the
front nears, moisture will continue to deepen over the area early
next week, resulting in rain and storm chances (60-80%) rising
further into early/mid next week. ISOLD strong storms will be
possible with the front. High and low temperatures will continue
to be slightly above normal thru Tue, but may get knocked back
down to near/slightly below normal behind the boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Thru Monday...Previous Modified...Generally favorable boating
conditions are forecast through this week and into early next week
as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast and associated
ridge axis remains north of the area through at least Sun. E/SE
winds will prevail through the weekend with speeds 5-10 kts
increasing to 10-15 kts each afternoon with sea breeze formation.
Winds then become south to southeast on Mon as a weakening cold
front approaches the local area. Seas generally 2-3 ft with
occasional seas to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream. Rain and lightning
storm coverage will increase, with SCT-NMRS showers/storms
forecast across the waters each day. Greatest coverage of this
activity will occur into the overnight and morning hours,
especially across the Gulf Stream. Storm steering is generally
toward the north/northwest thru Fri, then perhaps some offshore-
moving convection Sat-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Ongoing SHRA
becomes TSRA over the next hour or two, though coverage is
forecast to be widely scattered. Have maintained PROB30s for the
interior through around 22-0Z, but the highest confidence for
impacts is SUA, where coverage is forecast to be higher through
much of the afternoon. Convection pushes westward through the
afternoon, drying out near sunset.

However, CAMs are in fairly good agreement that SHRA with
embedded TSRA will develop along the Treasure Coast between 6-8Z,
then spread northward to around MLB/TIX through daybreak. Lower
confidence in how far northward the convection spreads along the
coast, though showers and storms look to continue through the
morning hours. Then, convection along the sea breeze moves
inland in the afternoon, reaching interior sites after 18Z.

E/SE flow prevails through the period, becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds then increase to 10-15 kts, strongest
along the coast, Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  76  88 /  30  40  20  60
MCO  74  89  75  91 /  10  50  20  70
MLB  76  86  77  88 /  30  60  30  60
VRB  75  87  76  89 /  40  70  40  60
LEE  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  20  70
SFB  73  88  75  90 /  10  40  20  70
ORL  74  88  75  90 /  10  50  20  70
FPR  75  87  76  88 /  50  60  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Wishard